Will the track at 11am be in the Atlantic off SE FL?

[boca]

The storm is still moving basically northward so I would think they would have to adjust the track again possibly into the Atlantic off the SE coast of Florida.

[DESTRUCTION5]

No Boca....Not moving N either...Still NW...

[Stratusxpeye]

It will be a close call. I called for key largo landfall esterday and im still sticking with it. But it wont spend much time over florida. IMO

[dcuevas]

I don't know alot about but correct me if I'm wrong... Please be nice... was it just a wobble? Maybe I missed something. Last night he was coming up the east cost of Florida and cutting across. This morning he may miss most of Florida and just cut through South Florida?

[MWatkins]

I do anticipate a slight eastward shift in the track at 11AM...but not enough to take the black line off of SE Florida.

However...remember this system could easily turn in front of the coast...or come right in. There is a termendous amount of uncertantity with this system...it looks like the center is trying to work its way back out over water...whether that is a temporary shift or a trend is yet to be known...but right now...prepare as if it is coming.

I would guess hurricane watches for Palm Beach and Martin counties will go up at the next advisory as well...we will find out in an hour.

MW

[gatorcane]

I do anticipate a slight eastward shift in the track at 11AM...but not enough to take the black line off of SE Florida.

However...remember this system could easily turn in front of the coast...or come right in. There is a termendous amount of uncertantity with this system...it looks like the center is trying to work its way back out over water...whether that is a temporary shift or a trend is yet to be known...but right now...prepare as if it is coming.

I would guess hurricane watches for Palm Beach and Martin counties will go up at the next advisory as well...we will find out in an hour.

MW

Yes I agree 100% with all of this - maybe a slight shift right but right over metro south florida.

[bayoubebe]

It seems like the uncertainty will stay in place until it gets out of Cuba.

The waiting/unknown is one of the hardest parts.

So, in another 24 hours things may change again?

If I lived in southern Florida, I'd prepare as if it is going to hit me tomorrow.

Better safe, than sorry.

[jpigott]

MW - who knows about intensity at this point, but if the track you outline verifies it could be potentially really bad news for those of us in SE FL. A slight shift east would mean a storm that basically tracks over MIA-FTLAUD-WPB, one of the nightmare scenarios for landfalling hurricanes here in the US. Any thoughts about potential intensity when Ernesto gets to FL??

[gatorcane]

MW - who knows about intensity at this point, but if the track you outline verifies it could be potentially really bad news for those of us in SE FL. A slight shift east would mean a storm that basically tracks over MIA-FTLAUD-WPB, one of the nightmare scenarios for landfalling hurricanes here in the US. Any thoughts about potential intensity when Ernesto gets to FL??

Storms are notorious for rapidly strengthening in the FL straits also - look at the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 (?) - it formed near the Bahamas and bombed out very quickly.....

[cpdaman]

could get out of cuba in about 8-10 hours it's heading 310 to 325 degrees will make a world of differnce on it's time frame over cuba (however over the eastern part of cuba the storms east side may still be firing