Time to trot out Dr. Gray again

[StormWarning1]

His August only forecast of 4 named storms with 3 of those being hurricanes and 1 of the hurricanes a cat 3 or higher is a big bust.
He predicted 11 days of hurricane activity and got .25, 3 days of intense hurricane activity and got zero.
Even though he did get 3 named storms, I don't think Chris, Debby, and Ernesto is what he had in mind when he called for a very active August.

Looking over his list of 'predictors' he heavily weighted SST to be above normal, which they are not. He gave a positive value for ENSO, meaning neutral to slight La Nina conditions, another miss in my opinion.

Anyway, he has another revision for the rest of the season due out Friday.
I say he lowers the rest of the season another 2 storms.

Whats everyone elses thoughts?

[gatorcane]

I respect Dr. Gray but just the fact that we can't predict a single storm (e.g. Ernesto) makes me highly question that any human being can accurately predict # of storms and a breakdown of type.

Last year he was way off (as was everybody) as we had 27 storms and this year he is already off substantially for August. Not blaming him, I just don't think we could ever have the ability to be this clairvoyant.

I know many people like to pay attention to his forecast but I don't think these predictions change/help/effect me in any way.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would agree, the upper levels where not faverable at all. The MOI is in the toilet...Which makes it seem like a el nino. We will have to see if September can get its butt into gear. Because if not then 15 storms is not likely.

I say he lowers it to 12/4/2

[Wx_Warrior]

Let me predict next week's Mega Millions Lottery #s.....

[gatorcane]

Let me predict next week's Mega Millions Lottery #s.....

Sure I'm listening....

[WxGuy1]

There is some skill over the long term... On the whole, above-average SSTs should be a predictor, as should be the strength and location of the "Bermuda" High. There will be years where above-average SSTs are not accompanied by above-average tropical activity, but, when looking at this from a multi-year standpoint, or "on the whole", I expect to see some sort of relationship between SST normality/anomaly and tropical cyclone development. I think we're best at "below average", "near average", or "above average", since pinning down specific numbers may imply a sort of predictability that we do not have.

[stormtruth]

His August only forecast of 4 named storms with 3 of those being hurricanes and 1 of the hurricanes a cat 3 or higher is a big bust.
He predicted 11 days of hurricane activity and got .25, 3 days of intense hurricane activity and got zero.
Even though he did get 3 named storms, I don't think Chris, Debby, and Ernesto is what he had in mind when he called for a very active August.

Looking over his list of 'predictors' he heavily weighted SST to be above normal, which they are not. He gave a positive value for ENSO, meaning neutral to slight La Nina conditions, another miss in my opinion.

Anyway, he has another revision for the rest of the season due out Friday.
I say he lowers the rest of the season another 2 storms.

Whats everyone elses thoughts?

Dr. Gray seriously gets to make another revision? It's like playing a game with a small child where you are trying to help them finish or win. Go ahead and have another turn there Dr. Gray and then we will bake some cookies.

[StormWarning1]

Dr. Gray seriously gets to make another revision? It's like playing a game with a small child where you are trying to help them finish or win. Go ahead and have another turn there Dr. Gray and then we will bake some cookies.[/quote]

I believe his season scorecard is based on the April forecast. The whole purpose of his research is to predict the upcoming season in advance based on a set of predictors.

He may even lose Ernesto as a hurricane with post season analysis.

[Derek Ortt]

Dr Gray has a duty to revise

He does not do message board forecasting where only bragging rights are at stake. Real things are at stake; thus, when data suggests earlier info was wrong, you make the change

[Jevo]

His August only forecast of 4 named storms with 3 of those being hurricanes and 1 of the hurricanes a cat 3 or higher is a big bust.
He predicted 11 days of hurricane activity and got .25, 3 days of intense hurricane activity and got zero.
Even though he did get 3 named storms, I don't think Chris, Debby, and Ernesto is what he had in mind when he called for a very active August.

Looking over his list of 'predictors' he heavily weighted SST to be above normal, which they are not. He gave a positive value for ENSO, meaning neutral to slight La Nina conditions, another miss in my opinion.

Anyway, he has another revision for the rest of the season due out Friday.
I say he lowers the rest of the season another 2 storms.

Whats everyone elses thoughts?

Sigh... No to sound flamatory but Dr. Grey has forgetten more about cyclogenesis and weather as a whole than most of us will ever learn.

He paints a large target on his back every season with his forecast, and when he is on the money then people will say "well thats becuase he is the best" if he is off then "aww man the old kook needs to hang it up" There has not been one "reliable" person who predicted a season this slow "I know this because I looked at the prediction post taken before the season started"

This is one hell of an anomolie and I honestly dont see him backing off more than 2, there is still 60 storm days left we could easily see 8 more storms especially the way the late season has been trending the last 5 years.

Just my thoughts

P.S. I apologize if my respect for a man that is a pioneer in what we call a hobby was the main overtone of my response

[sma10]

P.S. I apologize if my respect for a man that is a pioneer in what we call a hobby was the main overtone of my response

No need to apologize Jevo.

The bashing of Dr. Gray has become an annual pastime on this board.

Any time a season slows down for more than 3 days (even seasons that end up very active!) you get a similar thread as this.

[crazycajuncane]

I say there is a 50% chance for rain tomorrow. A 50% chance we'll see a hurricane in the next 2 weeks and a 50% chance that one day is cooler than the other. Let's see how good I do.

[Aslkahuna]

Would those who are bashing Dr. Gray please post the link to THEIR Forecasts for the season that they made last April so that I can check them out.

Steve

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Would those who are bashing Dr. Gray please post the link to THEIR Forecasts for the season that they made last April so that I can check them out.

Steve

I found this on my note pad. This is my old forecast from March 15th.

Tropical cyclone forecast for 2006...
3-15-2006


The Eastern Atlantic has cooled off greatly. WIth -3 or so degrees below normal. The rest of the central into the western Atlantic is normal to slightly below normal...0 to -.5...The only place that is above normal is the gulf of Mexico with a strong loop current.

A cooler eastern Atlantic/western Atlantic/Caribbean will mean higher pressures in the tropics. So less tropical cyclone development will occur. Even with a la nina in the Eastern Pacific=Less wind shear over the tropical Atlantic expect a cape verdes only slightly more active then last year. More in line with 2000 with out strong shear.

The Azores high should be weaker then normal from June through October with higher pressures in the tropics=lower pressures in the subtropics. With a avg to slightly stronger then avg Bermuda high. So troughs should rule the eastern Atlantic making more recurvers.

The cooler then normal sst's might keep some waves from developing...Which once they get into the gulf of Mexico need to be watched...But will there be Katrina/Rita most likely not...

I expect 3 tropical cyclones to devlelop into tropical storms east of 40 west...

There will be about 2 or 3 extratropical systems going subtroipcal or tropical.

Also to note after the 1933 season some of the quitest season on record happen. So it could easly be less active then forecasted.

Also the Eastern Pacific should be about normal or slight above normal. Even so theres a La nina...

Forecasted numbers
13 named storms
5 hurricane
2 Major hurricanes

Forecaster Matthew

[jlauderdal]

I respect Dr. Gray but just the fact that we can't predict a single storm (e.g. Ernesto) makes me highly question that any human being can accurately predict # of storms and a breakdown of type.

Last year he was way off (as was everybody) as we had 27 storms and this year he is already off substantially for August. Not blaming him, I just don't think we could ever have the ability to be this clairvoyant.

I know many people like to pay attention to his forecast but I don't think these predictions change/help/effect me in any way.

Im sure the seasonal stuff will continue but I concur and have posted several times on the issue. Who cares if its 10, 20, 30 storms if we dont't know where they are going in advance, doesn't matter. I also said recently on this board so anyone can look it up I would rather see money diverted to NHC for forecasting current systems and a whole lot less on seasonal predictions. Any disagreemenys? I bet NHC would love to have a chunk of the money lost to the economy in sofla and the keys because of days off work and tourism dollars lost the last two days. If anyone can tell me the importance of Grays predicitons let me know, I certainly can't figure it out but that doesn't mean there isn't importance to it.

I have been seeing alot of Mayfield on tv here the last two days far be it from me to know how he is feeling but he doesnt like tired he looks and sounds bored as hell and who can blame the guy. Having to repeat the same stuff over and over. he is doing a good service but its like making einstein have to repeat the multipication tables over and over. Again, I could be very off base but don't think so.

Ciao

[HurricaneGirl]

I respect Dr. Gray but just the fact that we can't predict a single storm (e.g. Ernesto) makes me highly question that any human being can accurately predict # of storms and a breakdown of type.

Last year he was way off (as was everybody) as we had 27 storms and this year he is already off substantially for August. Not blaming him, I just don't think we could ever have the ability to be this clairvoyant.

I know many people like to pay attention to his forecast but I don't think these predictions change/help/effect me in any way.

Well said. Great post gatorcane.

[Jim Hughes]

There has not been one "reliable" person who predicted a season this slow "I know this because I looked at the prediction post taken before the season started"

This is not true. There have been some people who have talked about how this season was NOT going to live up to expectations. You just need to consider who you deem reliable. And actually do your homework about who correctly forecasts certain things around here. Or anywhere else for that matter.

If you go with the flow you will be misled time and time again.

[jlauderdal]

There has not been one "reliable" person who predicted a season this slow "I know this because I looked at the prediction post taken before the season started"

This is not true. There have been some people who have talked about how this season was NOT going to live up to expectations. You just need to consider who you deem reliable. And actually do your homework about who correctly forecasts certain things around here. Or anywhere else for that matter.

If you go with the flow you will be misled time and time again.

Thanks for the opinion now lets see a link to this information so we can bookmark it for future use and compare to the other seasonal predictions.

Thanks

[kenl01]

I remember Chuck's forecast in May of about 13 named storms this year. He made it clear that this season was just going to be near or slightly above average, based on factors such as the AMO, SST's, and ENSO conditions.

No surprise at all............

[benny]

I say a big reduction in the number of hurricanes and intense hurricanes.. probably not so much in the named storms department. Too much El Nino forcing. We should have another good chance for low-latitude hurricanes in a couple weeks (after this week) if any MJO comes back around.