Effects of a major hurricane into Miami?

[LeeJet]

I am wondering what would be the physical effects if a Cat 3, 4, 5 hurricane moved right into Miami, at a slower speed than Andrew? Would the barrier islands of Key Biscayne and Miami Beach be under water? How strong inland would the storm surge go from the bay?

[huricanwatcher]

[Derek Ortt]

Key Biscayse and Miami beach almost certainly would NOT be under water. In fact, I would feel safe in my office on the Rickenbacker Causeway.

Miami is only slightly more surge prone than Hawaii. A cat 5 would only produce about 10 feet on the barrier islands here.

Surge is not the main issue for a Miami hurricane. Here, it is all about the wind. Remember, Wilma caused more than 16 billion worth of wind damage as a cat 1/2 in Miami/Lauderdale/Palm Beach. A cat 4 or 5 could cause as much as 100+ billion worth of wind damage

[LeeJet]

^The 1926 hurricane had Key Biscayne under water, did it not?

[Derek Ortt]

I am not sure, but I would be surprised if it was completely under water

[Bgator]

I think the main concern would be all the skyscrapers, and housing that would be totally lost, and put people out of business, and many without homes, even a cat 4 can do some nasty damage to those skyscrapers, wilma blew out many windows of them...

[Derek Ortt]

Wilma barely brought cat 1 winds to the center of miami and it did not fare very well.

Real cat 4 winds would likely bring gusts to about 200 mph to the tops of the Miami high rises

[shah8]

the 1926 hurricane was a surge hurricane, like what Katrina was, so I have to wonder what the statement that it wasn't very vulnerable to surge comes from...

It was a 15 foot surge from a category 4 storm...

[LeeJet]

I am not sure, but I would be surprised if it was completely under water

Yes, boats went over Key Biscayne, according to historical record.

[Derek Ortt]

The statement that Miami Beach and Key Biscayne is not exactly surge vulnerable comes from SLOSH simulations.

Miami itself is a bit more surge prone due to shallow Biscayne Bay, though there is a ridge that runs very near the coast, especially in the Coconut Grove area (very visible on Bayshore Drive)

[LeeJet]

I don't think people know how many strong hurricanes have hit Miami. People think it was 1926, Andrew, and that's it. It's amazing how many hurricanes were forgotten. Lets just use the 1940's as an example.

1941 (hurricane 5): Cat 3



1945 (hurricane 9): Cat 4



1947 (Great Hurricane of 1947): Cat 4



1947 (October Hurricane): Cat 1



1949 (Hurricane Two): Cat 4

This struck West Palm Beach, but likely gave Miami hurricane winds.
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That's 4 major hurricanes in just a decade, 3 of which directly went into Miami. They all would have been worse than Wilma or Katrina. I wonder why nobody knows about these storms.

[THead]

Now that 1947 Cat 4 was a long tracker. Wow.

Hmm, similar to Andrew, came in heading due west, then thru the gulf and into NOLA.

[SouthFloridawx]

Probably one of the worst scenarios that I can think of for a Southern/Central Florida Major hurricane hit would be a Hurricane Isabel size storm ( ) bearing down on Florida heading WNW or NW entering in the southeast coast and moving up in the general direction I have shown below.



This is probably one of the worst scenario's for Florida that I can think of.

[THead]

Yeah, that would effect the tri-county S. Fl. area and then exit at Tampa. You're right. Not good!

[Derek Ortt]

I disagree with the NW moving system being the worst case

A NNE moving system, moving up the Florida Keys, then into the metro areas is probably the worst.

For one, the Keys residents usually wont evacuate. Wilma showed that they wont evacuate for a major hurricane. There could be large loss of life if that performance is repeated. Then, it would hammer all 3 of the metro areas, possibly harder than Wilma did if it were more intense than Wilma

[SouthFloridawx]

I disagree with the NW moving system being the worst case

A NNE moving system, moving up the Florida Keys, then into the metro areas is probably the worst.

For one, the Keys residents usually wont evacuate. Wilma showed that they wont evacuate for a major hurricane. There could be large loss of life if that performance is repeated. Then, it would hammer all 3 of the metro areas, possibly harder than Wilma did if it were more intense than Wilma

Well I did say above that probably one of the worst scenario's for South/Central florida, plus I said that is "one" of th worst scenario's.

Secondly the worst possible hit for the keys would a storm moving northeast as you mentioned but, not just because it would go right over them but, they would get the 2 worst surges.

[brunota2003]

I will describe what I think will happen...it will be bad...ok thats enough thoughts for me of a major hurricane hitting ANYWHERE...dont want to think about that idea ever again...carry on...

[LeeJet]

I disagree with the NW moving system being the worst case

A NNE moving system, moving up the Florida Keys, then into the metro areas is probably the worst.

For one, the Keys residents usually wont evacuate. Wilma showed that they wont evacuate for a major hurricane. There could be large loss of life if that performance is repeated. Then, it would hammer all 3 of the metro areas, possibly harder than Wilma did if it were more intense than Wilma

Is there a storm on record which took this path, and was very strong?

[Derek Ortt]

Wilma 10 miles to the south would have done that

[flyingphish]

I agree with D.O. for these reasons. The first would be that a NNE arrival may put Metro Dade in the front right quadrant. Secondly, the storm could form in the deep Caribbean and get very powerful very quickly. Third, like Wilma, it could be influenced by a frontal boundary and come in like a bat out of Heck. Fourth, and most alarming, is the fact that East coastal and Keys residents "expect" to get hit from the SE or due East . They would tend to dismiss a system originating to the SW as a Gulf problem. This is evident from some prior posts.