Short Wave Troughs Dominating EC

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami

These shortwaves just continue to come in - makes you wonder if the hurricane season will be ending a bit earlier this year...

.DISCUSSION...SFC TROUGH FROM T.D. ERNESTO CONTINUES TO AFFECT S
FLA WX WITH SW FLOW. SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BUT
NOT UNTIL ABOUT SUNDAY WITH SATURDAY STILL SEEING THE SW FLOW BUT
MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS STORM MOTION
OF ONLY 4 KT BUT STILL TO AFFECT MORE OF THE E CST THAN THE WEST.
SPEAKING OF THE GFS, UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENT ATL
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS MOVING W TOWARDS FLA WITH THE GFS
SHOWING IT OVER US ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS, DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY
IT HAS THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SAT VS SUN. SO WILL UNDERCUT ITS
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR SUNDAY. THE
START OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD GET MORE UNDERWAY OF CLIMO BUT THE GFS
SLIPS THE RIDGE SOUTH AGAIN BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WOULD TEND TO SHIFT
THE HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN TO THE E CST AS PWAT REMAINS ABOVE 2INCHES. BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE FOR THE TIME BEING.