CMC Model

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rnbaida

CMC Model

#1 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 12:36 pm

Image Looks like we are in trouble....
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#2 Postby Meso » Sat Sep 02, 2006 12:38 pm

Yeah I was also looking at the loop and was watching how it built the ridge up and it took on a westerly track.
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#3 Postby Trugunzn » Sat Sep 02, 2006 12:41 pm

that very interesting, see what it shows on the next run
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#4 Postby the_winds_that_sheared_me » Sat Sep 02, 2006 12:47 pm

Is this 98L or the wave coming off Afrika? If the wave coming off Afrika, euro model is similar to that as I posted in this thread. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89296 Its apparent this wave is gonna develop being all models are so bullish but the track is less than desired for those of us in the US. Could be a consensus on the track?
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rnbaida

#5 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 12:50 pm

I think this is a that wave that is still over africa but is about to come off of africa....
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Jim Cantore

#6 Postby Jim Cantore » Sat Sep 02, 2006 2:15 pm

If this pans out, I dont like where it's at one bit.
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#7 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:39 pm

Once again I must remind everyone that the first few tracks, are usually never the track it will eventually follow. Meaning it is WAY to early to worry about this one's path, whatever it may be.
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#8 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:39 pm

CMC had a powerful hurricane into TX w/ Ernesto. It's not the greatest model.
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rnbaida

#9 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:42 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:CMC had a powerful hurricane into TX w/ Ernesto. It's not the greatest model.
So did the GFDl and all the others.... the models this year havnt been the greatest but who could have predicted where ernesto would go????
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Rainband

#10 Postby Rainband » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:52 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:If this pans out, I dont like where it's at one bit.
why?
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#11 Postby Trugunzn » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:55 pm

Rainband wrote:
Hurricane Floyd wrote:If this pans out, I dont like where it's at one bit.
why?


I think its because cmc ends it going more west at the last few frames
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Rainband

#12 Postby Rainband » Sat Sep 02, 2006 6:37 pm

Trugunzn wrote:
Rainband wrote:
Hurricane Floyd wrote:If this pans out, I dont like where it's at one bit.
why?


I think its because cmc ends it going more west at the last few frames
he is in New Jersey. Thats why I said Why?? :lol:
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Re: CMC Model

#13 Postby perk » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:05 pm

rnbaida wrote:Image Looks like we are in trouble....
rnbaida i know you're not buying this model. If memory serves me right you were sold on this system being a fish earlier today.
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#14 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:20 pm

People can change their minds. I don't like the model run either, it shows a weakness over FL.
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#15 Postby perk » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:32 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:People can change their minds. I don't like the model run either, it shows a weakness over FL.
You've just made my point. You should wait before you hang your hat on the initial model run. Oh and about that weakness in the ridge over Florida that may change in latter runs. :D
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#16 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:40 pm

Still don't like it, reminds me of...............Frances, the longest living hurricane over land I've ever seen. Moving 2 mph over land and still maintained hurricane strength.
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#17 Postby Downdraft » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:17 pm

Until the models have a center they can initialize on they don't mean much at all. Once they do I wait a few runs for consistency before I really become interested.
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rnbaida

#18 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:23 pm

I still call this system a fish.... I dont believe any of the models right now.
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#19 Postby Trugunzn » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:41 pm

rnbaida wrote:I still call this system a fish.... I dont believe any of the models right now.


Why you think it will be fish?
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rainstorm

#20 Postby rainstorm » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:53 pm

this is 98L
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