CrazyC83's Florence Forecast #20 - Surprise! She ain't dead!

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Depression Six Prediction #1

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


TD6 formed this afternoon between Cape Verde and the Lesser Antilles. It should become Florence by tomorrow. Right now, I am generally in agreement with the NHC with a slightly leftward track and slightly increased intensity. It could become a threat to land in the many days to come.



Current - 14.6/40.4 - 1005mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 15.5/42.1 - 1003mb - 35mph
24 hrs - 16.5/43.8 - 1001mb - 50mph
36 hrs - 17.1/45.5 - 999mb - 60mph
48 hrs - 18.0/47.3 - 997mb - 65mph
60 hrs - 18.6/48.7 - 995mb - 65mph
72 hrs - 19.4/50.9 - 992mb - 70mph
96 hrs - 20.6/55.1 - 985mb - 85mph
120 hrs - 22.2/61.1 - 973mb - 105mph



*edited by Lindaloo to add proper disclaimer

[cycloneye]

I posted the storm2k disclaimer at your post.

[CrazyC83]

I posted the storm2k disclaimer at your post.

Okay thanks. I put a disclaimer (as I always do) at the top but never really knew about yours to post.

[CrazyC83]

Why am I not uber-aggressive like with Ernesto? Simple - this is not an area prone to rapid deepening like the central Gulf and western Caribbean.

[wxwatcher91]

Everyone went aggressive (at least compared to the outcome) with Ernesto. The fact is we saw 4 category five hurricanes form last year in the waters that it LOOKED like Ernesto would travel over. As it turned out, Ernesto was incredibly hydrophobic, and decided to jump from landmass to landmass.

I think that TD 6 has a very good chance of becoming a hurricane, but I will not go any further than that. Right now I think your forecast is near the mark. Your track forecast is a little too far south in the short term as TD 6 is really heading in more of a NW direction, but I get the idea and agree with the outcome (day 5 position)

Good job

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Florence Prediction #2

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Despite high wind shear, TD6 intensified into TS Florence this morning. I think the shear from the passing trough will hold its intensity and perhaps even weaken it a bit for the next 48 hours. After that, I see steady strengthening starting at 60 hours. The trajectory is similar to the NHC track, perhaps a bit left. It is not an immediate threat to land.



Current - 17.3/47.3 - 1005mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 17.6/48.7 - 1005mb - 35mph
24 hrs - 18.3/50.6 - 1003mb - 40mph
36 hrs - 19.1/52.7 - 1001mb - 45mph
48 hrs - 19.8/55.1 - 999mb - 45mph
60 hrs - 20.6/57.0 - 993mb - 60mph
72 hrs - 21.3/59.1 - 988mb - 70mph
96 hrs - 22.8/63.7 - 980mb - 85mph
120 hrs - 24.6/67.7 - 971mb - 105mph

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Florence Prediction #3

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TS Florence is slowly gaining steam over the open Atlantic and is expected to continue to. Hurricane strength is not all that far away, and it should continue to strength after that. It should then follow the Gulf Stream away from the East Coast, west of Bermuda. Note the large cone of uncertainty though as it could go either way. It is also too far out to determine the ultimate landfall, if any.

The track is consistently left of the NHC track.



Current - 18.3/50.9 - 1000mb - 50mph
12 hrs - 18.9/52.4 - 997mb - 60mph
24 hrs - 20.0/54.7 - 991mb - 70mph
36 hrs - 21.2/57.1 - 981mb - 80mph
48 hrs - 22.4/59.5 - 975mb - 90mph
60 hrs - 23.4/62.2 - 971mb - 100mph
72 hrs - 24.4/64.3 - 969mb - 105mph
96 hrs - 27.2/68.1 - 948mb - 120mph
120 hrs - 31.4/70.3 - 944mb - 125mph

[weatherwoman]

thats funny this is also the hurricane centers prediction

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Florence Prediction #4

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Extremely large and quite disorganized, although there have been some signs of somewhat improved organization over the past few hours. The center has been clearly located. A Recon flight tonight will give us a better idea, but for now, I am bumping the strength up slightly, giving the benefit of the doubt of the better organization.

Shear will keep intensification slow for the next 36 hours, shortly after Florence should become a hurricane. After that, it should steadily strengthen as it passes west of Bermuda into a major hurricane.



Current - 20.0/53.8 - 999mb - 60mph
12 hrs - 20.6/56.3 - 995mb - 60mph
24 hrs - 21.7/58.7 - 992mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 22.7/60.7 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 24.5/63.8 - 979mb - 80mph
60 hrs - 26.0/66.9 - 972mb - 90mph
72 hrs - 28.5/68.7 - 960mb - 105mph
96 hrs - 34.7/68.2 - 948mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 41.1/64.3 - 951mb - 115mph

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Florence Prediction #5

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

While Florence has not strengthened officially, I still think it is a bit stronger than the NHC suggests. Nonetheless, it is getting much better organized and should begin to strengthen more soon. I am thinking that it is getting ready to take off now and strengthening should begin within 12-18 hours. The strengthening I think will be more rapid than previously predicted too.

Bermuda should definitely be getting prepared for a strong hurricane hit.



Current - 21.3/56.1 - 997mb - 60mph
12 hrs - 22.1/58.4 - 994mb - 60mph
24 hrs - 23.0/60.7 - 987mb - 70mph
36 hrs - 25.3/62.7 - 978mb - 85mph
48 hrs - 27.6/64.6 - 962mb - 105mph
60 hrs - 30.5/65.3 - 956mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 33.3/65.6 - 947mb - 135mph
96 hrs - 39.2/63.1 - 950mb - 120mph
120 hrs - 45.0/58.2 - 950mb - 110mph - Entering ET

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Florence Prediction #6

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

While Florence looked like it was going to weaken this morning, that trend has reversed as the last of the dry air has been sucked up and the trough is gone. I would have lowered the intensity considerably if it weren't for the latest satellite shots that show good banding and a structure as solid as last night. Hence I will leave it as it is for now. I see solid strengthening coming up beginning soon - if it hasn't already started.

Bermuda should definitely be getting prepared for a strong hurricane hit. A watch will likely be recommended soon. After that, I think Florence will grow even stronger and maintain much of the intensity as it transitions into an extratropical monster. That means strong hurricane conditions possible in Atlantic Canada.



Current - 23.0/59.1 - 997mb - 60mph
12 hrs - 23.9/61.0 - 990mb - 70mph
24 hrs - 25.4/62.7 - 983mb - 80mph
36 hrs - 27.2/64.5 - 977mb - 90mph
48 hrs - 29.5/65.3 - 968mb - 105mph
60 hrs - 32.3/65.5 - 958mb - 110mph - Near Bermuda
72 hrs - 35.2/64.7 - 949mb - 125mph
96 hrs - 42.0/60.3 - 952mb - 115mph
120 hrs - 49.8/52.8 - 970mb - 75mph - Extratropical

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Florence Prediction #7

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Strengthening appears to be underway, with a eyewall trying to form in the cirrus clouds. In addition, it is fully banded now. Based on some data from Dvorak, I am seeing a 55 kt storm right now. The intensification should continue until well after passing Bermuda. I am thinking that we will see a Category 2 storm at its closest approach to Bermuda. The track is shifted a bit left at first, then the angle afterward is sharper as it moves into the north Atlantic.



Current - 23.0/61.1 - 995mb - 65mph
12 hrs - 24.3/62.8 - 988mb - 70mph
24 hrs - 26.8/64.5 - 981mb - 85mph
36 hrs - 29.0/65.5 - 975mb - 90mph
48 hrs - 32.1/65.7 - 963mb - 105mph - Near Bermuda
60 hrs - 35.0/64.9 - 951mb - 120mph
72 hrs - 38.3/62.5 - 952mb - 120mph
96 hrs - 46.7/53.8 - 959mb - 100mph - Inland, in Transition
120 hrs - 51.3/44.0 - 963mb - 80mph - Extratropical

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Florence Prediction #8

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Strengthening is continuing this evening and into the overnight hours. It is becoming very well organized and should become a hurricane by morning. Nonetheless, the lack of an eye feature and lack of data to back such up leaves me to hold it at a tropical storm for the moment. The initial intensity is 60 kt.

Bermuda should be ready for a strong, and possibly a major hurricane direct hit. Atlantic Canada should also keep a close eye out, especially Newfoundland.



Current - 24.5/61.4 - 991mb - 70mph
12 hrs - 25.7/63.3 - 983mb - 85mph
24 hrs - 27.1/65.0 - 972mb - 100mph
36 hrs - 31.1/65.6 - 961mb - 110mph
48 hrs - 34.7/65.2 - 952mb - 120mph
60 hrs - 37.5/63.2 - 949mb - 125mph
72 hrs - 40.9/60.3 - 951mb - 115mph
96 hrs - 47.6/52.8 - 960mb - 85mph - Inland, Extratropical
120 hrs - 52.1/42.7 - 958mb - 85mph - Extratropical

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Florence Prediction #9

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Satellite estimates from Dvorak suggest that Florence is indeed a hurricane. However, the lack of an eye feature suggests otherwise. I was going to hold Florence as a tropical storm, until I saw the Dvorak satellite that had an open spot in the convection which was followed up in the NRL pictures. As a result, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt. It will need to be confirmed by recon this afternoon though.

The intensification I think now should be sooner and more pronounced, meaning Bermuda should feel the brunt of a major hurricane. After that, extratropical transition makes the forecast more uncertain, but I am leaving it as a Category 2 as it approaches or hits Newfoundland. It will then become a powerful extratropical cyclone in the north Atlantic.

The cone is now a 3-day cone.



Current - 24.5/61.4 - 988mb - 75mph
12 hrs - 26.6/65.4 - 976mb - 90mph
24 hrs - 29.5/66.0 - 968mb - 105mph
36 hrs - 32.7/65.6 - 959mb - 115mph - Near Bermuda
48 hrs - 35.8/63.8 - 951mb - 125mph
60 hrs - 39.5/61.1 - 952mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 44.2/57.3 - 955mb - 105mph - Entering ET
96 hrs - 51.8/45.0 - 966mb - 80mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 55.8/33.7 - 972mb - 75mph - Extratropical

[conestogo_flood]

A direct hit on St. Pierre and Miquelon off the coast of NFLD, how odd, a landfall on France...

Anyways, you are calling for a landfall between Grand Bank and Burin near Placentia and Mary's Bay. That's probably the most populated zone of the whole province. Then, a hit on St. John's further north on the Avalon. This could be one to remember, I just feel bad for those Newfoundlanders, they don't have a lot of money, and I doubt they live in extra sturdy homes on the water.

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Florence Prediction #10

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Over the last few hours, the center of Florence has been sheared with the low and mid-level circulations not properly aligned. That has temporarily stopped the strengthening and weakened the system some. While all Dvorak estimates continue to indicate a hurricane-strength storm, the Recon did not even come close to justifying such. As a result, the intensity is brought down to 55 kt. The lack of any updates at NRL make it difficult to determine if that is a low estimate, which could easily be the case.

The track has also slowed down for the next 48-60 hours, which will allow it additional time to strengthen before reaching water temperatures below 26C (80F). While a major hurricane in Bermuda is no longer predicted at this point, things can change very fast and they should still be prepared for a formidable storm. This weakening may have easily been an aberration if the data is proven to be missed. The strength is conservatively held for the next 12 hours on the assumption the shear will hold. The track is unchanged for the most part.

The cone remains a 3-day cone.



Current - 25.6/64.3 - 988mb - 65mph
12 hrs - 27.6/65.1 - 985mb - 70mph
24 hrs - 29.3/65.6 - 977mb - 85mph
36 hrs - 32.2/65.6 - 967mb - 100mph - Near Bermuda
48 hrs - 34.3/64.9 - 960mb - 115mph - North of Bermuda
60 hrs - 38.1/61.7 - 957mb - 120mph
72 hrs - 42.4/57.9 - 956mb - 110mph
96 hrs - 49.9/49.9 - 968mb - 85mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 55.2/41.3 - 975mb - 75mph - Extratropical

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Florence Prediction #11

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Florence you fool!!! This is like a giant rollercoaster, up and down, up and down. All that weakening that took place in the afternoon hours are gone this evening. All the satellite estimates suggest a hurricane, and with an eyewall detected on the NRL, I have to bring Florence back to 65 kt and hurricane intensity. The future remains quite uncertain now.

It is a crapshoot on the intensity in Bermuda. It could be anywhere from tropical storm to Category 3 depending on internal changes that seem to come and go. To be safe, I continue to go on the higher end. The general track is unchanged.

The cone remains a 3-day cone. If the intensity changes dramatically in the flight, an amended forecast may be issued.



Current - 26.6/64.9 - 987mb - 75mph
12 hrs - 28.7/65.5 - 977mb - 90mph
24 hrs - 31.1/65.8 - 969mb - 100mph - SW of Bermuda
36 hrs - 33.7/65.3 - 967mb - 110mph - North of Bermuda
48 hrs - 37.3/62.8 - 961mb - 115mph
60 hrs - 41.3/59.4 - 959mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 45.1/55.1 - 958mb - 100mph - Transition to Extratropical
96 hrs - 49.5/45.7 - 966mb - 80mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 51.4/35.8 - 977mb - 70mph - Extratropical

[CrazyC83]

981mb vortex found - Special update shortly.

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Florence Amended Prediction #11A

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is to update the intensity as received by the latest vortex and satellite estimates. It is increased to 75 kt. The pressure is dropped a touch more.

No graphic is issued and no change to track.

Current - 26.9/65.1 - 980mb - 85mph
12 hrs - 28.7/65.5 - 973mb - 100mph
24 hrs - 31.1/65.8 - 963mb - 110mph - SW of Bermuda
36 hrs - 33.7/65.3 - 967mb - 115mph - North of Bermuda
48 hrs - 37.3/62.8 - 958mb - 120mph
60 hrs - 41.3/59.4 - 956mb - 120mph
72 hrs - 45.1/55.1 - 958mb - 100mph - Transition to Extratropical
96 hrs - 49.5/45.7 - 966mb - 80mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 51.4/35.8 - 977mb - 70mph - Extratropical

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Florence Prediction #12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Florence fooled us again and rapidly intensified overnight and this morning and appears to be continuing to, despite warmer cloud tops. However, despite the clear eye, Dvorak estimates have not increased. The temptation was there to increase to Category 2 intensity due to the low pressure but the lack of any backing up data stopped that. The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt as a combination of all factors.

Continued intensification is expected throughout the day and Bermuda can expect a strong Category 2 or 3 hurricane. After that, it should be a significant threat to Atlantic Canada. The track has shifted somewhat to the left.

The cone remains a 3-day cone. If the intensity changes dramatically in the flight, an amended forecast may be issued.



Current - 28.7/65.9 - 972mb - 90mph
12 hrs - 31.3/66.6 - 962mb - 110mph - SW of Bermuda
24 hrs - 33.8/66.3 - 946mb - 125mph - NW of Bermuda
36 hrs - 37.2/64.4 - 944mb - 125mph
48 hrs - 40.7/61.0 - 950mb - 120mph
60 hrs - 44.6/57.6 - 953mb - 110mph
72 hrs - 47.3/53.2 - 956mb - 100mph - Inland, Transitioning
96 hrs - 51.1/45.4 - 964mb - 80mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 54.8/35.2 - 973mb - 70mph - Extratropical