Only a matter of time

[hurricanetrack]

Looking at the overall conditions across the Atlantic and then westard in to the east Pacific, I think it is only a matter of time until a hurricane brews and hits the U.S. There is plenty of "upward motion" coming from the east-Pac and Africa is still active with deep convection scattered about. Sea temps are as warm as they will be this season and are 2C above normal in many places. The GFS continues to spit out low after low from Africa and with the climatological peak still a few days away, I really think we will see a hurricane hit the U.S. this season. I have no idea where or when but before the month is over, someplace will likely have been hit by a least a cat-1 hurricane. Hopefully it won't be any stronger than that but you never know- there is an awful lot of undisturbed warm water in the Gulf and western Atlantic. Also- the Caribbean islands have been mostly spared for this season- they could still get a hit too. Just my two cents as we watch Florence grow and seemingly prepare for a turn out to sea after rounding the Bermuda high.

[KatDaddy]

Hey there Mark. I hope you dont come back to Houston-Galveston for work

I feel the GOM will brew up a major storm this month......just a feeling

[TheShrimper]

Africa can spit out all the waves it wants to, the troughs will continue to eat them up. Best look to the southern breeding grounds now. That's where the action will originate, if any.

[Cyclenall]

I think it is only a matter of time until a hurricane brews and hits the U.S.

Ditto.

there is an awful lot of undisturbed warm water in the Gulf and western Atlantic

Exactly. That's where some extreme rapid strengthening can take place.

[Indystorm]

I too have been concerned that there is an awful lot of energy out there. This has been the season of the TUTT's (upper lows) and SAL Saharan air layer which has depressed activity thus far. But the potential is still there.

[SouthFloridawx]

I too have been concerned that there is an awful lot of energy out there. This has been the season of the TUTT's (upper lows) and SAL Saharan air layer which has depressed activity thus far. But the potential is still there.

I don't think that this is above average year for Saharan Dust. I think it's a normal part of the Atlantic.

[hurricanetrack]

While we may see few long track storms/hurricanes, all of the tropical waves will move west, they rarely just "go away" even if there is strong shear in the Basin. So, perhaps we will see a wave or two sneak past 60 west and pop then. At that point, it might just be too late for any East Coast trough to grab it and turn it away. We will also have to watch the NW Caribbean later this month and thru October- we've seen NOTHING there since Alberto and I cannot imagine going the entire season without seeing a hurricane in the Yucatan Channel. Keep in mind I really think this will happen- simply based on past seasons and what the late season has produced. The overall numbers will be way down, but not having any hurricanes hit the U.S. is quite rare, though it certainly can happen (2000 and 2001).

[EDR1222]

I hope your wrong Hurricanetrack, but as you mentioned, we are approaching the peak part of the season. If some serious action gets going, I could see something sneaking underneath the troughs that have persisted this season.

[hurricanetrack]

Just for what it's worth, looking at the past two runs of the GFS operational, it looks as though the end of the month could see a rather large ridge spread out across the Atlantic at the 500mb level. In fact, the far, far out 384 hr 500 mb map shows a flat pattern with zero troughing in the Atlantic. Of course, this is tough to swallow since it is such a long way out, but with such warm water temps in the northern Atlantic, it seems that more heat would be added to the subtropical ridge over time. Maybe it has just taken longer this time around since there were some very strong mitigating factors in place such as ULLs, shear, SAL, etc. All I am saying, and I think most folks know this, is that we don't need 12 more named storms and 6 more hurricanes to form in order to call this an ugly season- I know people say it only takes one, but who knows, we could see two come across and cause some trouble. This is what makes this phenomenon so interesting to watch. You just never know.

[dwg71]

I hope your wrong Hurricanetrack, but as you mentioned, we are approaching the peak part of the season. If some serious action gets going, I could see something sneaking underneath the troughs that have persisted this season.

"approaching"?? we are in the peak of the season...

[LAwxrgal]

"approaching"?? we are in the peak of the season...

You're right and wrong here, dwg. We're in September, which is the peak month of the season, and the climatological peak is around September 10, and it's not quite the tenth yet. But it's close.

[Stormcenter]

There is no doubt we will see at least 1 major hurricane before the end of September but whether or not it will affect the U.S. mainland is very iffy.
There is alot of "potential" out there but something is just missing this season. I don't know what it is but it's just not there, well at least not now. Well anyway time is running out and once we get out of September it's all downhill so everyone cross your fingers and toes.

[hurricanetrack]

I just keep thinking of those years like 1989 and 1954 when late season monsters took advantage of a warm-up in the East during an average or slightly above average season. That one big long track hurricane is rare to see hit the East Coast or anywhere. It's been a while- Ivan and Frances were certainly there- nice long tracks from Africa. Isabel was too. Last year was anything but. So who knows? The 00Z GFS continues with its flat upper pattern once Florence is out of the picture. It also shows a TC moving right across the deep tropics and in to the Caribbean- we'll see. Just hope that people aren't letting their guard down- I know the folks here aren't. We know better.

[marcane_1973]

Its not gonna happen until the Bermuda High makes a shift. Its all fish here on out till that changes.

[perk]

Hey there Mark. I hope you dont come back to Houston-Galveston for work

I feel the GOM will brew up a major storm this month......just a feeling

Katdaddy you know i'm on board with something in the GOM before the season ends, but i could use some help bringing our friend Portastorm around.

[KatDaddy]

That ok Perk. Portastorm has a very valid point. We are on the downhill slide for NW GOM storms. My point is strictly a non-scientific gut feeling. This gut feeling has been wrong many times.

[perk]

That ok Perk. Portastorm has a very valid point. We are on the downhill slide for NW GOM storms. My point is strictly a non-scientific gut feeling. This gut feeling has been wrong many times.

I agree that Portastorm has a very valid point, and i respect that. I also have no science to back me up, but sitting about 40 miles from the GOM and in your case a stones throw i can't buy into that line of thinking right now.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well with a large High moving in after Flo pulls out should be sufficient in keeping the troughing in the Central Atlantic to a minimum, which in turn should keep the ULL's from developing for then next couple of weeks. Now I'm not saying there won't be any as things can change. I would say we are in for an upswing in development in the coming 2-3 weeks.

[dwg71]

"approaching"?? we are in the peak of the season...

You're right and wrong here, dwg. We're in September, which is the peak month of the season, and the climatological peak is around September 10, and it's not quite the tenth yet. But it's close.

Well I guess your right as far as the one day where it peaks out and starts to decline, if we are not in peak season - would you say that Sept 13th is not in the peak of the season. Its semantics, but we are definately in the peak "period" of the season - which in my opinion runs from August 15th to October 15th.