El NINO on the way in

[StormWarning1]

According to NOAA Climate Prediction Center we are still in neutral conditions, but I think the warming Pacific is affecting the lack of development south of 20N in the Atlantic. Nothing gets going until it pulls out of the shear.
If so, then Florence may be the 'Karl" of 2004, and the season winds down after mid September with only a few weak systems the rest of the season.

Here is the 2004 season.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2004.asp
After Karl it was over.

Here is the NOAA link to the El Nino article.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... index.html

Here is a anamoly loop of the Pacific.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... anim.shtml

[Trugunzn]

Dr jeff masters just updated his blog and seems to agree

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[PTrackerLA]

So much for 17 named storms this year DR. GRAY.

[Rainband]

So much for 17 named storms this year DR. GRAY.

If this year fooled the experts, I am sure it fooled a few other too.

[gboudx]

Speaking as someone living in a drought-stricken area of Texas, I welcome an El Nino. The sooner it can start influencing our weather with more rain, the better.

[Rainband]

Speaking as someone living in a drought-stricken area of Texas, I welcome an El Nino. The sooner it can start influencing our weather with more rain, the better.

I would have said that a few months back but not now. Here in western florida we are above normal and El Nino will bring us more rain.

[Bailey1777]

Only everybody. People love to attack the big names but I saw the board predictions from here and they almost all were very high.

[PTrackerLA]

So much for 17 named storms this year DR. GRAY.

If this year fooled the experts, I am sure it fooled a few other too.

This year definately fooled me as I thought it would be very active as well. Seems like every storm that has formed has struggled to even survive much less strengthen. I don't remember this happening this often in past years. Hopefully things stay quiet and we can enjoy fall this year. Maybe even the leaves will change colors since they won't be ripped off like last year .

[Rainband]

So much for 17 named storms this year DR. GRAY.

If this year fooled the experts, I am sure it fooled a few other too.

This year definately fooled me as I thought it would be very active as well. Seems like every storm that has formed has struggled to even survive much less strengthen. I don't remember this happening this often in past years. Hopefully things stay quiet and we can enjoy fall this year. Maybe even the leaves will change colors since they won't be ripped off like last year .

Look at my forecast from months back. It definately fooled me

[southerngale]

So much for 17 named storms this year DR. GRAY.

If this year fooled the experts, I am sure it fooled a few other too.

As did last year. Just goes to show you how hard it is to predict this stuff!

Speaking as someone living in a drought-stricken area of Texas, I welcome an El Nino. The sooner it can start influencing our weather with more rain, the better.

I would have said that a few months back but not now. Here in western florida we are above normal and El Nino will bring us more rain.

Same here. While I know that gboudx needs rain and I hope he gets it, parts of Texas (like here) have been inundated with rain most of the summer. Of course we'll still need some periodically, but we just need more TIME in between rain events. It's actually been a little better the last several weeks...not as much rain.


Edit:
After several days of no rain, except for some light stuff on Tuesday, of course it returns. lol



Btw, I'm happy to report that after raining out on every single holiday starting on Mother's Day this year, we had a beautiful Labor Day!

[PTrackerLA]

I remember the el nino of 97-98 very well. Probably the stormiest winter I can ever remember. The past 2 years have been really dry around here so I'd welcome a wet winter.

[KatDaddy]

Bring on the snow for the Gulf Coast!

[Portastorm]

Bring on the snow for the Gulf Coast!

That's right and don't forget KatDaddy that an El Nino year -- 2004 -- bring the Texas coast a historic snowfall!!

[fci]

El Nino as I understand it means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and weaker ones too.

So, living in South Florida the only weather that scares me is HUrricane Season and if El Nino means a mild season, then I am all for it!

Nothing in winter in South Florida is scary in the least.
unless you are a grower and there are a lot of freezes which I don't think is the case.
Wetter is no problem to me.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Bring on the snow for the Gulf Coast!

That's right and don't forget KatDaddy that an El Nino year -- 2004 -- bring the Texas coast a historic snowfall!!

I'd love another one! But during the rest of that winter season it was pretty much a winter cancel. I don't think we had too many temps in the 40's after that. But if it helps with a Gulf Hurricane season cancel, so be it. The whole Gulf coast needs a break for another few years.

[CrazyC83]

Will this be a super-El Nino like 1997-98?

[benny]

If you can't forecast El Nino... you might as well give up the seasonal forecast business. It is a shame but few experts were expecting this... and no one exactly got it right. In addition no one knew whether it was going to be an El Nino like 2004.. which had ZERO impact on the hurricane season. We have a long ways to go to understand the ocean/atmosphere coupling that happens to start an El Nino. In fact this time the MJO was very weak, as opposed to the 02 event beforehand it was very strong. There are a lot of ways to start an El Nino..

[GulfBreezer]

This El Nino could also have a very big affect on the 2007 season as well.........could be very quiet in the tropics for a while.........I also know that 2004 with El Nino present (I think) Ivan got us big time......what was the El Nino status then?

[CrazyC83]

This El Nino could also have a very big affect on the 2007 season as well.........could be very quiet in the tropics for a while.........I also know that 2004 with El Nino present (I think) Ivan got us big time......what was the El Nino status then?

Very quiet in the tropics? NOT in the Pacific...the 2007 Pacific season could be insane if there is a strong El Nino...

[GulfBreezer]

This El Nino could also have a very big affect on the 2007 season as well.........could be very quiet in the tropics for a while.........I also know that 2004 with El Nino present (I think) Ivan got us big time......what was the El Nino status then?

Very quiet in the tropics? NOT in the Pacific...the 2007 Pacific season could be insane if there is a strong El Nino...

Sorry I tend to forget about the Pacific because I stay so strongly focused on the Atlantic, but you are correct.