CrazyC83's Gordon Forecast #18 - Gordon's European Adventure

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Depression Seven Prediction #1

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD7 formed this evening NE of the Lesser Antilles. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt in agreement with the NHC and satellite estimates.

However, due to high wind shear on the projected track that I made, I don't have a great deal of confidence that it will last that long. There are two possible paths - the other, less likely path, makes a due-west course and allows the system to strengthen considerably. However, I am going with the northern path - east of Florence, with shear and dry air hindering.

No cone of uncertainty is included due to the two opposing tracks and low confidence.



Current - 20.2/54.5 - 1012mb - 30mph
12 hrs - 20.3/55.3 - 1008mb - 35mph
24 hrs - 20.5/56.5 - 1007mb - 35mph
36 hrs - 21.2/57.6 - 1005mb - 40mph
48 hrs - 22.4/58.4 - 1005mb - 40mph
60 hrs - 24.0/58.7 - 1006mb - 35mph
72 hrs - 26.2/58.1 - 1009mb - 30mph - Remnant low
96 hrs - 29.6/57.3 - 1011mb - 25mph - Remnant low
120 hrs - 32.8/55.0 - 1011mb - 25mph - Remnant low

[Scorpion]

Interesting. Many are calling for much better conditions than Florence.

[CrazyC83]

I think it is almost a coin flip. My next prediction - likely tomorrow morning - could be wildly different.

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Seven (Gordon?) Prediction #2

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The Dvorak estimate just came in at 33 kt, the banding has improved and Quikscat has identified tropical storm-force winds. As a result, the initial intensity has increased to 35 kt and TD7 has become a tropical storm.

The track has moved a bit to the left, and I am still thinking that strengthening will be slow overall due to shear and dry air. However, it will be stronger than my previous forecast, but I don't see hurricane strength at this point.

Note the naming: I did not give it the name Gordon automatically as the NHC has to give the name in case they do not identify TS winds at all. I simply called it TS7 for now.



Current - 21.1/56.9 - 1009mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 21.5/57.8 - 1007mb - 45mph
24 hrs - 22.0/59.1 - 1005mb - 45mph
36 hrs - 22.5/60.2 - 1004mb - 50mph
48 hrs - 23.6/61.3 - 1003mb - 60mph
60 hrs - 25.3/61.7 - 1002mb - 60mph
72 hrs - 27.3/61.5 - 999mb - 65mph
96 hrs - 31.0/60.1 - 998mb - 65mph
120 hrs - 35.7/57.5 - 1004mb - 50mph

[CrazyC83]

Now being recognized as TS Gordon. That will be effective as of the next advisory, likely this evening sometime.

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Gordon Prediction #3

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

How quickly things change! All the thought of quick dissipation has turned to a thought of quick intensification. The Recon found a decreasing pressure and increasing wind in the flight. Combined with a rapidly organizing look, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt, which may be conservative.

The track is virtually unchanged. However, healthy conditions should make Gordon much, much stronger than initially anticipated. It is much smaller than Florence so it can develop much quicker and easier. Fortunately, it should miss all land areas - if the current prediction holds.



Current - 21.6/57.3 - 1003mb - 45mph
12 hrs - 22.0/58.2 - 998mb - 60mph
24 hrs - 22.6/59.5 - 995mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 23.4/60.8 - 989mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 24.8/61.7 - 980mb - 80mph
60 hrs - 26.5/62.0 - 977mb - 90mph
72 hrs - 28.4/61.9 - 971mb - 100mph
96 hrs - 32.4/60.3 - 968mb - 105mph
120 hrs - 35.8/57.6 - 968mb - 100mph

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Gordon Prediction #4

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

2006 has defied climatology - mostly for the detriment of development - many times. This time, it is doing so in favor of the storm. Gordon is currently undergoing intensification in the open Atlantic over warm waters and low shear. Setting an intensity is difficult due to the lack of any real satellite information or other helpful guides. I am estimating the intensity at 50 kt.

The intensification trend should continue as it passes through similar conditions that allowed Florence to finally intensify. Being a much smaller storm, the intensification should be much more pronounced. As a result, I am thinking we could have a hurricane in less than 24 hours and a major hurricane down the road before cooler waters ultimately take their toll. Fortunately, it should stay away from land.



Current - 22.1/57.9 - 998mb - 60mph
12 hrs - 22.8/59.0 - 988mb - 70mph
24 hrs - 24.2/60.0 - 981mb - 85mph
36 hrs - 26.0/60.8 - 971mb - 105mph
48 hrs - 27.9/61.4 - 966mb - 110mph
60 hrs - 30.1/60.7 - 963mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 32.2/59.7 - 966mb - 115mph
96 hrs - 35.1/56.8 - 969mb - 100mph
120 hrs - 38.4/51.2 - 977mb - 80mph

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Gordon Prediction #5

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

After appearing to entering rapid intensification last night, Gordon levelled off in intensity due to some upper-level shear. There is little change in intensity from the last update. The NHC has it at 50 kt and visual estimates back such up with perhaps a bit stronger in spots, so I will estimate it at 50 kt as well, although that could be a bit conservative.

The only thing really certain is its track - it will almost certainly recurve with no threat to land at all. The intensity is difficult. I see higher shear sooner slowing down the intensity. Hence I now only predict a strong Category 1 storm ultimately.



Current - 23.4/58.3 - 997mb - 60mph
12 hrs - 24.7/59.1 - 992mb - 70mph
24 hrs - 26.2/59.2 - 989mb - 75mph
36 hrs - 27.6/58.8 - 982mb - 85mph
48 hrs - 29.1/58.0 - 979mb - 90mph
60 hrs - 31.0/57.2 - 977mb - 90mph
72 hrs - 32.4/56.2 - 977mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 35.6/54.5 - 980mb - 80mph
120 hrs - 38.8/51.7 - 984mb - 70mph - Entering ET

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Gordon Prediction #6

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

After levelling off in intensity for a while, Gordon is picking up steam again tracking away from land. An eyewall is also starting to become visible amidst the cloud cover. The latest satellite estimates also show a strengthening trend. As a result, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.

Later this evening, Gordon should intensify into a hurricane. However, it doesn't have the influence of the Gulf Stream to permit strengthening in the higher latitudes, so I peak it as a Category 2 hurricane. It is no threat to land.



Current - 23.7/58.4 - 992mb - 70mph
12 hrs - 24.5/59.1 - 987mb - 75mph
24 hrs - 25.6/59.5 - 980mb - 85mph
36 hrs - 27.2/59.2 - 976mb - 90mph
48 hrs - 28.4/58.6 - 972mb - 100mph
60 hrs - 30.1/57.7 - 971mb - 100mph
72 hrs - 31.9/56.6 - 973mb - 90mph
96 hrs - 34.5/54.4 - 979mb - 80mph
120 hrs - 37.6/51.2 - 984mb - 70mph

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Amended Prediction #6A

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is to increase the intensity of Gordon. Significant intensification has taken place this evening and Gordon has an open eye and a symmetrical shape. The initial intensity is being increased to 70 kt.

There is no change to the track, and no graphics are being issued here. The forecast intensities are adjusted somewhat upward.

Current - 23.9/58.4 - 986mb - 80mph
12 hrs - 24.5/59.1 - 981mb - 90mph
24 hrs - 25.6/59.5 - 973mb - 100mph
36 hrs - 27.2/59.2 - 971mb - 105mph
48 hrs - 28.4/58.6 - 967mb - 110mph
60 hrs - 30.1/57.7 - 970mb - 105mph
72 hrs - 31.9/56.6 - 973mb - 90mph
96 hrs - 34.5/54.4 - 977mb - 80mph
120 hrs - 37.6/51.2 - 984mb - 70mph

[Derek Ortt]

that may not be an eye, its definately not an open one

Also, probably should wait for the new T numbers to come out shortly before calling it a cane, or wait for a met to comment on it

[Derek Ortt]

OK... I'm convinced now, that is clearly the eye and Gordon is almost certainly a 75KT hurricane

[CrazyC83]

OK... I'm convinced now, that is clearly the eye and Gordon is almost certainly a 75KT hurricane

I had thought about going that high but I retreated on that, didn't want to get TOO far ahead knowing what it could be (just 65 kt). I might at the next update though.

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #7

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Clearly a hurricane now, Gordon has seemingly levelled off in intensity and the eye is no longer clear like it was previously. Since no other data backs the previous intensity up, I am lowering the initial intensity to 65 kt which is the NHC estimate.

The strength forecast is for slow strengthening until increased shear, and eventually cooler waters, take over. That should allow Gordon to reach Category 2 intensity, but I am not sensing anything stronger than that. Gordon is no threat to land.



Current - 24.4/57.9 - 986mb - 75mph
12 hrs - 25.6/57.8 - 983mb - 80mph
24 hrs - 27.3/57.5 - 982mb - 80mph
36 hrs - 28.7/57.1 - 978mb - 90mph
48 hrs - 29.9/56.4 - 974mb - 100mph
60 hrs - 31.3/55.4 - 973mb - 100mph
72 hrs - 32.6/54.1 - 976mb - 90mph
96 hrs - 35.1/51.9 - 983mb - 75mph
120 hrs - 37.8/48.1 - 990mb - 60mph

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #8

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hurricane Gordon intensified some more this morning. The eye is now well-defined and the bands are very solid. That being said, the system is somewhat asymmetrical with an opening in the NE Quad. Dvorak estimates show a 77 kt storm at this point. The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt, which is in agreement with the NHC.

There is very little change to the track, but the intensity is somewhat in question. How long will the favorable conditions last? If they last for a while, Gordon has the potential to become a major hurricane. However, cooler waters will ultimately take their toll, limiting intensification somewhat. Still no threat to land.



Current - 26.0/57.9 - 977mb - 90mph
12 hrs - 26.9/57.8 - 969mb - 105mph
24 hrs - 27.8/57.7 - 966mb - 110mph
36 hrs - 28.8/57.4 - 964mb - 110mph
48 hrs - 30.0/57.0 - 968mb - 100mph
60 hrs - 31.4/56.2 - 975mb - 90mph
72 hrs - 32.6/55.0 - 978mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 36.2/52.2 - 987mb - 70mph
120 hrs - 40.2/48.6 - 994mb - 50mph

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #9

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hurricane Gordon is rapidly intensifying and is much more organized than it was. It becomes the strongest hurricane of 2006 by a solid margin. I had considered moving Gordon up to major hurricane intensity but held back since no data is there to back such up. The initial intensity is increased to 95 kt.

There is little change to the track. Gordon still has about 24 hours of easy intensification, and should easily become a major hurricane - and likely a Category 4 hurricane - before cooler waters take their toll. Gordon is no threat to land, however, shipping interests should beware as Gordon is becoming a very dangerous hurricane.



Current - 27.0/57.5 - 964mb - 110mph
12 hrs - 28.0/57.3 - 952mb - 125mph
24 hrs - 29.1/56.7 - 947mb - 135mph
36 hrs - 30.2/55.9 - 943mb - 140mph
48 hrs - 31.4/55.2 - 950mb - 120mph
60 hrs - 32.7/54.4 - 956mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 34.3/53.1 - 969mb - 105mph
96 hrs - 37.5/50.3 - 983mb - 85mph
120 hrs - 42.5/45.2 - 991mb - 65mph

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Amended Prediction #9A

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The rapid intensification continues this evening. Satellite estimates show a strong Category 3 storm with around 108 kt. Since it is difficult to estimate clearly, this amended prediction is mainly to increase the initial intensity to 110 kt.

There is no change to the track. Gordon should further intensify to a Category 4 before levelling off.

Current - 27.3/57.4 - 953mb - 125mph
12 hrs - 28.0/57.3 - 942mb - 145mph
24 hrs - 29.1/56.7 - 940mb - 145mph
36 hrs - 30.2/55.9 - 943mb - 140mph
48 hrs - 31.4/55.2 - 950mb - 120mph
60 hrs - 32.7/54.4 - 956mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 34.3/53.1 - 969mb - 105mph
96 hrs - 37.5/50.3 - 983mb - 85mph
120 hrs - 42.5/45.2 - 991mb - 65mph

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #10

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Rapid intensification continues to take place with Gordon. This evening, he intensified significantly, with the pressure dropping quite a bit too. The initial intensity is increased to 115 kt in agreement with the AODT T6.1, which makes Gordon an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane.

The peak is near though. While the small size will allow a little additional strengthening, I would be quite surprised if Gordon reached Category 5 intensity. Eyewall replacement cycles will eventually come into play, followed by slow weakening over cooler waters. That is, unless, Gordon is becoming annular as is suspected by some, which would slow the weakening greatly. Fortunately, Gordon is no threat to land, but is a serious threat to shipping interests - and poor fish in the way.



Current - 27.8/57.1 - 948mb - 135mph
12 hrs - 29.8/56.3 - 943mb - 145mph
24 hrs - 31.4/55.3 - 941mb - 145mph
36 hrs - 32.7/54.2 - 951mb - 125mph
48 hrs - 34.3/53.3 - 954mb - 120mph
60 hrs - 35.8/52.3 - 961mb - 110mph
72 hrs - 37.2/51.0 - 967mb - 100mph
96 hrs - 39.9/47.8 - 980mb - 80mph
120 hrs - 42.5/45.0 - 983mb - 60mph - Entering ET

[senorpepr]

:sigh: AODT is a statistical over-estimate. While I respect your opinion, I see nothing reliable that says Gordon is anything above a marginal category three.

[Bane]

^agreed. you choose to ignore 2 of the 3 estimates and go with the highest in your forecast, which seems to be normal. if gordon continues his rate of intensification, then he could reach a cat 4 storm, but he isn't there yet.

Pressure is currently estimated at 955 MB, not 948.