Helene Forecasts (AF)

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Derek Ortt

Helene Forecasts (AF)

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:51 am

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89685
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Blown Away
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#2 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:19 pm

Question, your 120hr position at 16.5/50.0 is 120 miles S of the 120hr NHC position and the models cross 20N between 45-48N. What are you seeing to allow the system to stay that far S and do you predict the recurve prior to the Islands? What scenerio would impact the CONUS? Thanks...
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#3 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:36 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89709

#2
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#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:22 am

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89725

#3
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#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:18 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89748

#4 and read the note I left in the Analysis forum, explaining why I went with Helene, if it is not upgraded, then the nwhhc site will be changed around 11 to read TS 8
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#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:30 am

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89764

#5
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#7 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:33 am

interesting you take it quite a bit further left than the NHC guidance. Any more of a shift left and the islands could feel some effects.
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#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:25 am

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89801

forecast #6
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#9 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:24 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89815

#8
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#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:25 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89815

#8
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#11 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:31 pm

you mean 7, right?
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#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:37 am

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89824 #8

previous was 7
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#13 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:39 am

you had "7" marked here as "8"
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#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:20 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89841

#9
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#15 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:05 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89870

forecast #10
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#16 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:06 pm

its about time!
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#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:23 pm

115kt = Cat 4
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#18 Postby hurricanetrack » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:23 pm

Fpr what?
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#19 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:30 pm

Derek waited 24 hours in between forecasts.
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#20 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:53 pm

as always, comments in AF. This thread is to alert those who do not visit AF that new information is there

also, 115KT is cat 3 or cat 4
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