CrazyC83's Helene Forecast #19 - Drastic change - out to sea

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Depression Eight Prediction #1

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

While it may have been a tropical depression since early this morning, there is enough confidence now that it can definitely be declared TD8 in its current position south of Cape Verde. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt in agreement with the NHC and satellite estimates.

I don't buy the recurve thoughts of the models at this point. I think the weakness will not materialize and I keep it on a generally westward track throughout the forecast. Steady intensification is also seen as likely as conditions should remain generally favorable for development through the forecast.



Current - 12.5/23.0 - 1007mb - 30mph
12 hrs - 12.4/24.9 - 1005mb - 35mph
24 hrs - 12.4/27.6 - 1001mb - 45mph
36 hrs - 12.3/30.0 - 997mb - 60mph
48 hrs - 12.4/32.5 - 991mb - 70mph
60 hrs - 12.5/34.9 - 984mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 12.7/37.4 - 976mb - 90mph
96 hrs - 13.0/42.7 - 968mb - 105mph
120 hrs - 13.5/48.3 - 950mb - 125mph

[robbi1972]

less antilles is under attak for me..
Helene not follow the way of Florence..
but is soo soon

[gatorcane]

interesting track, the islands could be at risk here

[Cassi]

OK... I have been a major lurker here for years, and I don't have much knowledge at all ... but I have a question.

With the prediction of TD8 gaining so much strength so fast, is it a possibility that it will cave in on itself, or fall apart, since it would have so long to go at such a high intensity to get to any land?

[gatorcane]

OK... I have been a major lurker here for years, and I don't have much knowledge at all ... but I have a question.

With the prediction of TD8 gaining so much strength so fast, is it a possibility that it will cave in on itself, or fall apart, since it would have so long to go at such a high intensity to get to any land?

Hi, nice to talk to a lurker

The short answer is no. Storms fluctuate in strength but they will not cave in on themselves at very high intensities without specific external factors - i.e, the shear becomes very intense or the SSTs fall below the minimal threshold of 78F.

I will also add the very intense storms (e.g. CAT 5s) do not usually stay at CAT 5 strength for very long, since the conditions must be near perfect for a CAT 5 to sustain and rarely do they stay perfect for very long.

[CrazyC83]

So much strength so fast? That major hurricane part at the end - is 5 days from now.

[bahamaswx]

So much strength so fast? That major hurricane part at the end - is 5 days from now.

Not unreasonable at all.

edit: The track may be, on the other hand

[Robjohn53]

Man if this thing was to get into the caribean it could be really nasty have to see what it dose for sure...but the season sure seems to be ramping up a bit...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Not saying this will happen, but the models have had TD 8 to far North in ever run thus far. We'll have to see if they keep initializing it incorrectly, or not in the next few runs.

[Cyclenall]

So CrazyC83 is thinking a more like Ivan type storm at the start. I was wondering what caused Ivan to track so much westward for much of his life aside from the fact he was more south then normal. Very strong ridge in place?

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Eight (Helene?) Prediction #2

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There is considerable uncertainty in the strength of this system. A ship observation of 36 kt took place near the center of the storm, although the validity of the reading is suspect. Nonetheless, based on the satellite imagery, I have estimated that it has become a tropical storm. The initial intensity is increased to 35 kt.

With no obvious weakening mechanisms in place due to its low latitude, continued steady strengthening is likely. I may be going on the high side with intensity but past experience has seen such happen. The track remains problematic but the southern track should also keep it out of the trough, allowing it to travel much farther west. This could be a very dangerous hurricane in the days ahead.

Note: It is not being declared Tropical Storm Helene until the NHC or an official source declares such. I am calling it Tropical Storm Eight until such happens.



Current - 11.9/23.9 - 1006mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 11.7/26.3 - 1003mb - 45mph
24 hrs - 11.7/28.8 - 1000mb - 60mph
36 hrs - 11.9/32.1 - 996mb - 65mph
48 hrs - 12.2/34.5 - 990mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 12.4/37.2 - 980mb - 90mph
72 hrs - 12.6/39.7 - 971mb - 105mph
96 hrs - 13.3/45.2 - 952mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 14.5/50.6 - 943mb - 140mph

[Scorpion]

Great forecast, I fully agree. A strong hurricane should be expected.

[WindRunner]

Still think that that track is too southern, as it should soon be pulled north by the trough unless there is a major dip in latitude over the next 24h. Still think it's a good track forecast, I would just rotate it about 15° towards the north.

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Eight Prediction #3

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not unlike with Florence, the large size of this system is delaying development. Dvorak estimates show a system just a touch below tropical storm force, However, the latest Quikscat showed numerous wind barbs of tropical storm-force, including non-contaminated ones. The big question is if they are actually valid. As a result, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt.

There are no real large-scale weakening mechanisms in place ahead of it, meaning development should be continuous. That being said, it should be slowed considerably by its large size, which means that it will take longer than first anticipated to reach its peak intensity. Once that does though, this could be an extremely dangerous hurricane in the long range forecast. It remains to be seen what track it will take - will it follow Gordon and Florence out to sea? Will it get caught missing troughs and taking a clear shot to land? I have kept it on the straight path, slightly to the left due to wobbles.

Note: It is not being declared Tropical Storm Helene until the NHC or an official source declares such. I am calling it Tropical Storm Eight until such happens.



Current - 11.8/25.1 - 1006mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 11.5/27.2 - 1004mb - 45mph
24 hrs - 11.3/29.4 - 1002mb - 50mph
36 hrs - 11.1/32.3 - 1000mb - 50mph
48 hrs - 11.1/34.5 - 996mb - 60mph
60 hrs - 11.2/37.3 - 988mb - 70mph
72 hrs - 11.5/40.2 - 979mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 12.0/44.9 - 968mb - 105mph
120 hrs - 12.5/50.5 - 944mb - 135mph

[Bane]

why do you feel the system will stay so far south?

[CrazyC83]

why do you feel the system will stay so far south?

The fact it has been wobbling to the WSW since it formed, and it will be enough south to miss the troughs.

[wxmann_91]

why do you feel the system will stay so far south?

The fact it has been wobbling to the WSW since it formed, and it will be enough south to miss the troughs.

Problem is a) the storm itself would want to move north due to Beta Effect if it gets as strong as you say it will, b) the potential impact of an upper level low inducing a weakness to the north if #8 gets vertically stacked, and c) weaknesses will have a poleward effect on any TC, no matter how far south it is.

I would place the track on the northern edge of the cone. Whether this recurves depends on how strong it gets and how much of a weakness is carved by either the ULL or Gordon. 85% chance IMO of recurvature east of Bermuda.

[baitism]

Yeah, but if it doesnt develop or its development is inhibited it wont be influenced by the troughs as much. Speed and intensity are everything with this one.

[conestogo_flood]

I always like reading your forecasts. Ever since the tornado warning here, and you gave me exact points of reference and the tornado arrival time, I fully trust your forecasts. You aren't jipping anyone, and you say what needs to be said. You are the voice of those who don't speak what they need about these situations. Great forecasts!

-Mike

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Eight Prediction #4

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The system has had a fairly difficult time organizing due to its elongated pattern. That being said, the Dvorak estimates now show a 39 kt storm to go along with the Quikscat. Due to the poor organization, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt.

The intensity increase should be slow due to its large size and difficulty in organization. Wind shear also picked up and its large size means the SAL is a factor and it has to clear that, which should slow development. It has been slowed down due to its large size, but it is important to note that should this system become a significant hurricane, it will be more dangerous due to the fact it could very well have an enormous footprint. The track is moved slightly to the right, but not much.



Current - 12.0/28.5 - 1006mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 12.1/30.4 - 1003mb - 45mph
24 hrs - 12.2/33.0 - 1003mb - 50mph
36 hrs - 12.4/35.6 - 1001mb - 50mph
48 hrs - 12.5/38.2 - 996mb - 60mph
60 hrs - 12.6/40.8 - 990mb - 65mph
72 hrs - 12.7/43.4 - 982mb - 75mph
96 hrs - 13.8/48.7 - 963mb - 100mph
120 hrs - 15.3/54.7 - 951mb - 120mph