Tropical Depression Lane in EPAC=Last Advisory Written

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932006) ON 20060912 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060912 1800 060913 0600 060913 1800 060914 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 97.3W 13.8N 99.2W 14.2N 101.0W 14.8N 102.8W
BAMM 13.5N 97.3W 14.2N 99.0W 14.8N 100.7W 15.6N 102.4W
LBAR 13.5N 97.3W 13.7N 99.4W 14.3N 101.7W 15.0N 104.2W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 38KTS 49KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 38KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060914 1800 060915 1800 060916 1800 060917 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 104.6W 17.4N 108.9W 18.0N 113.9W 17.8N 119.8W
BAMM 16.5N 104.2W 18.0N 108.6W 18.4N 113.6W 17.9N 119.9W
LBAR 15.8N 106.4W 18.6N 111.0W 20.8N 114.3W 21.6N 117.0W
SHIP 60KTS 74KTS 76KTS 74KTS
DSHP 60KTS 74KTS 76KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 97.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 95.1W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 92.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The EPAC comes to life again after a mini period of quiet basin.

[CrazyC83]

Finally, something there. I thought the Atlantic was really trying to catch up...I think we'll get Lane out of this.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122219
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT TUE SEP 12 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES. THIS AREA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AGUIRRE/AVILA

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932006) ON 20060913 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060913 0000 060913 1200 060914 0000 060914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 97.2W 14.5N 99.1W 15.1N 100.7W 15.9N 102.4W
BAMM 13.9N 97.2W 15.0N 98.9W 15.9N 100.4W 16.9N 102.2W
LBAR 13.9N 97.2W 14.2N 98.9W 14.9N 100.9W 15.8N 103.0W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 38KTS 49KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 38KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060915 0000 060916 0000 060917 0000 060918 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 104.1W 18.4N 108.1W 19.2N 112.9W 19.3N 117.7W
BAMM 17.9N 104.0W 19.4N 108.4W 19.8N 113.4W 19.7N 119.1W
LBAR 17.3N 105.1W 20.2N 109.0W 22.6N 111.5W 25.3N 111.0W
SHIP 61KTS 76KTS 76KTS 70KTS
DSHP 61KTS 76KTS 76KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.9N LONCUR = 97.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 96.1W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 94.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

12/2345 UTC 14.0N 97.0W T1.0/1.0 93E -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131058
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT WED SEP 13 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN FOR A
FEW HUNDRED MILES. THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. EVEN IF A
DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORM...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932006) ON 20060913 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060913 1200 060914 0000 060914 1200 060915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.5N 100.3W 14.9N 102.1W 15.5N 104.0W 16.3N 105.8W
BAMM 14.5N 100.3W 15.3N 102.0W 16.0N 103.7W 16.9N 105.6W
LBAR 14.5N 100.3W 14.9N 102.5W 15.8N 104.8W 16.9N 106.8W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 47KTS 58KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 47KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060915 1200 060916 1200 060917 1200 060918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.9N 107.9W 18.2N 112.7W 18.8N 118.0W 18.5N 122.5W
BAMM 17.3N 107.8W 18.5N 112.8W 18.7N 118.3W 17.7N 122.4W
LBAR 18.3N 109.0W 21.1N 112.7W 23.8N 114.5W 26.4N 112.0W
SHIP 68KTS 76KTS 74KTS 69KTS
DSHP 68KTS 76KTS 74KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 100.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 98.1W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 96.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

Next name: Lane

EPAC fighting backt to remain ahead as the Atlantic gets closer.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131645
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT WED SEP 13 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORM...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO
MANZANILLO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[Coredesat]

TCFA:

WTPN21 PHNC 131530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131521Z SEP 06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N 100.3W TO 15.5N 103.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 100.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.5N 100.3W, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM SOUTH OF APAPULCO, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP CONVEC-
TION AND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141530Z.//

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Graphic

[cycloneye]

13/1745 UTC 15.6N 100.9W T2.0/2.0 93E -- East Pacific Ocean

It looks like it will be TD-13E very soon.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, it's now 13E.NONAME.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Another one off the list for the E-Pac. The Atlantic is getting it's butt whooped.

[Scorpion]

No, not really. Atlantic is seriously catching up. We will have 8 named storms soon, and the EPAC has had 11(12 if this one becomes a TS).

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COAST...

AT 2 PM PDT... 2100 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE
GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 2 PM PDT... 2100 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST OR ABOUT
125 MILES...200 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 145
MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL AND STAY OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. HOWEVER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN MARCOS THROUGH ACAPULCO TO
TECOMAN... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

808
WTPZ43 KNHC 132053
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE DEFINED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
CENTER AND RADAR FROM ACAPULCO SHOWS A BROAD ROTATION WITHIN THESE
BANDS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 30 KT... AND THIS
IS THE INITIALLY INTENSITY. SHIP V2HZ REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KT...
BUT THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CIRCULATION AS A
WHOLE. HOWEVER IT DOES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY
LARGE WIND FIELD... AND REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR SOUTHWEST MEXICO.

WATERS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO ARE QUITE WARM... AND... COMBINED WITH
LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST... INTENSIFICATION COULD BE RAPID. SHIPS
SUGGESTS THERE IS ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT OR MORE
MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE GFDL HAS A MUCH SLOWER STRENGTHENING RATE... WHICH SEEMS A
LITTLE SUSPECT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SHIPS... IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/10.
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE
IN THE SHORT-TERM ACCOUNTING FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST
BEYOND 72 HOURS DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
THE UKMET SEEMS TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MUCH TOO FAR TO THE NORTH GIVEN
THE RIDGING OVER MEXICO WHILE THE GFS IS SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED BY
THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
GUIDANCE... AND IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 16.0N 101.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.8N 102.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.6N 104.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.3N 106.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.9N 107.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Acapulco Radar.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN (EP132006) ON 20060914 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060914 0000 060914 1200 060915 0000 060915 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 102.0W 17.3N 103.6W 18.1N 105.0W 18.8N 106.8W
BAMM 16.4N 102.0W 17.3N 103.6W 17.9N 105.4W 18.4N 107.6W
LBAR 16.4N 102.0W 17.4N 103.6W 18.4N 104.9W 19.5N 106.4W
SHIP 30KTS 42KTS 55KTS 64KTS
DSHP 30KTS 42KTS 55KTS 64KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060916 0000 060917 0000 060918 0000 060919 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.7N 108.6W 21.7N 112.5W 23.7N 114.9W 26.3N 115.6W
BAMM 19.0N 110.0W 20.8N 115.3W 21.2N 120.5W 20.4N 124.4W
LBAR 21.0N 108.2W 24.8N 110.3W 28.1N 108.6W 32.0N 101.9W
SHIP 73KTS 75KTS 65KTS 51KTS
DSHP 73KTS 75KTS 65KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 102.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 100.1W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 98.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[CrazyC83]

I'd write up a prediction if there were tracking maps available here for the Pacific...