Tropical Depression Miriam in EPAC

[WmE]

There's a new invest in the EPac.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 141613
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LANE LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BIT BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON LANE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3 AND FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This maybe the system...The satellite shows a well defined LLC moving slowly eastward at 17 north/115 west.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[P.K.]

WHXX01 KMIA 161055
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN (EP142006) ON 20060916 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060916 0600 060916 1800 060917 0600 060917 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.1N 114.8W 17.9N 115.0W 18.4N 115.4W 18.1N 116.2W
BAMM 17.1N 114.8W 18.3N 114.5W 18.9N 114.2W 18.9N 114.5W
LBAR 17.1N 114.8W 17.9N 115.1W 18.9N 115.7W 20.0N 116.7W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 41KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 41KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060918 0600 060919 0600 060920 0600 060921 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 117.7W 18.1N 121.0W 22.3N 122.0W 29.0N 115.4W
BAMM 18.8N 115.3W 20.2N 117.9W 25.9N 118.0W 31.8N 111.9W
LBAR 20.7N 117.6W 22.7N 119.7W 27.2N 119.8W 29.9N 114.4W
SHIP 38KTS 30KTS 21KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 30KTS 21KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 114.8W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 115.4W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 115.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

679
WTPZ44 KNHC 161152
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THE FIRST FEW IMAGES OUT OF THE GOES-11 ECLIPSE PERIOD INDICATE THAT
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED SOME VERY DEEP AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED
ON AN OBSERVATION AT 0600 UTC...VERY NEAR THE APPARENT CIRCULATION
CENTER...BY A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN ELTZ7. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY
DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE VERY STRONG CONVECTION...ANY RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 045/04. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF
HURRICANE LANE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING
AND THEREFORE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE NEW CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD THEN
RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1200Z 17.5N 114.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 17.9N 114.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 18.9N 113.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 19.8N 112.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 20.8N 112.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 114.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 26.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

[CrazyC83]

Will Miriam be Fujiwhara-ed by Lane?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM THIS MORNING...
WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT UNTIL
VISIBLE IMAGES PROVIDE A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE THE CENTER IS IN
RELATION TO THE CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS
BASED ON DATA FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION
ISLAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/3. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS IT IS CAUGHT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE LANE. AFTER THAT...LANE
SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND ENOUGH RIDGING
SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN IT TO A
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AFTER 96 HR THE SYSTEM
COULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE SYSTEM IS LEFT OVER COLDER WATERS AND
WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY OUTFLOW FROM LANE INHIBITS DEVELOPMENT. THE
SHEAR COULD DECREASE BY 60 HR...BUT THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THAT TIME. BY 120 HR...THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW OVER 24C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 17.8N 114.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 18.3N 113.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 19.3N 112.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 20.4N 112.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 21.2N 112.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 115.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 27.0N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM (EP142006) ON 20060916 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060916 1800 060917 0600 060917 1800 060918 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 114.5W 18.7N 115.0W 18.9N 115.6W 19.0N 116.7W
BAMM 18.0N 114.5W 19.1N 114.5W 19.6N 114.9W 19.9N 115.3W
LBAR 18.0N 114.5W 18.8N 114.7W 19.6N 115.4W 20.3N 116.4W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 36KTS 34KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 36KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060918 1800 060919 1800 060920 1800 060921 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.1N 118.1W 21.9N 120.0W 27.4N 117.8W 30.8N 108.9W
BAMM 20.4N 116.3W 23.8N 117.9W 28.7N 115.4W 30.5N 107.9W
LBAR 21.1N 117.4W 24.8N 119.2W 29.0N 117.4W 30.8N 107.4W
SHIP 33KTS 27KTS 17KTS 0KTS
DSHP 33KTS 27KTS 17KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 114.5W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 114.7W DIRM12 = 44DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 115.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 0NM

Yes,NRL has as headerMiriam,and the models are also with 35kts and Tropical Storm Miriam but the storm2k policy of not changing titles until the official word is out from NHC stands.

[Cyclenall]

The name Miriam is a weird name. How do you pronounce it?

[NetZeroZeus]

Me-re-um. At least that's the way we all pronounce it around here.

[cycloneye]

The name Miriam is a weird name. How do you pronounce it?

Miriam,nothing in the pronnuciation of that name that is different as it is easy to pronnounce.Mi-ri-am.

[cycloneye]

973
WTPZ24 KNHC 162034
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.3W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.3W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.7N 113.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 113.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.9N 112.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.1N 112.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.5N 115.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 27.5N 115.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Scorpion]

Waste of a name IMO.

[cycloneye]

990
WTPZ44 KNHC 162042
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14E HAS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE MAIN CONVECTION. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
WEAKENING...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE
AGAIN 35 KT AT 18Z. ON THIS BASIS...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WITH 35 KT WINDS. THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED
STATION ON CLARION ISLAND...OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...HAS
BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT
DURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURES OF 1005-1006 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGLY UNCERTAIN 040/3. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS IT IS CAUGHT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE LANE. AFTER THAT...LANE
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER MEXICO...AND ENOUGH RIDGING SHOULD
DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN IT TO A
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED
CHANCE THAT AFTER 96 HR THE SYSTEM COULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO A NORTHWARD TURN IS NOW INDICATED AT THAT
TIME.

A COMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...STABLE
INFLOW...AND GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP MIRIAM FROM STRENGTHENING VERY
MUCH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
NEAR 48 HR WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. AFTER
THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 18.2N 114.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 18.7N 113.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 113.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 20.9N 112.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 22.1N 112.9W 40 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 25.5N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 21/1800Z 27.5N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HurricaneBill]

Waste of a name IMO.

I think it's a nice name.

[NetZeroZeus]

Waste of a name IMO.

I think it's a nice name.

He was referring to the storm..he means that this blob didn't really deserve the name

[bombarderoazul]

I have a cousin with that name, it sounds good in Spanish.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ24 KNHC 170246
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.4W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 180SE 120SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.4W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 113.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.6N 113.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.6N 113.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.1N 113.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 65SE 65SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 114.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 114.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FIORINO/STEWART

[cycloneye]

475
WTPZ44 KNHC 170311
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED AND DEEPENING
CONVECTION SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35
KT RESPECTIVELY. AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF
THESE ESTIMATES.

WHILE TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHWARD JOG...CURRENT
MOTION IS 020/2. THE STORM IS STILL DRIFTING IN A GENERALLY
NORTHEAST DIRECTION...CONSISTENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH
OF THE CENTER THAT IS PART OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTAINING
BOTH TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM AND HURRICANE LANE. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND MORE
CLOSELY FOLLOWS MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN
THE GUIDANCE.

NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EVEN THE GFDL MODEL...INITIALIZED WITH THE
STRONGEST CYCLONE OF ALL THE MODELS...FORECASTS ONLY SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES
LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION AND THEN DISSIPATION IN 3-4 DAYS. THE
DOMINANT NEGATIVE INTENSITY FACTOR IS INTRUSION OF DRY STABLE
MARITIME AIR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 18.4N 114.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 18.8N 114.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 113.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 20.6N 113.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 21.6N 113.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 23.1N 113.7W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 114.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 22/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$ FORECASTER FIORINO/STEWART

[P.K.]

WTPZ44 KNHC 170844
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006

MIRIAM IS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0220 UTC...A COUPLE OF NEARBY SHIP
OBSERVATIONS...AND ON AN OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE USING THE SHEAR
PATTERN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. THE WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...SO STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. ON THE
CONTRARY...THE SHIPS AND GFDL BOTH FORECAST GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WEAKENING WILL ALSO BE HASTENED WHEN THE
CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN A FEW DAYS.

USING SEVERAL PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A COUPLE OF QUIKSCAT
OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO...THE FORWARD MOTION
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABOUT 015/4. WITH LANE WEAKENING OVER
LAND...ITS INFLUENCE ON MIRIAM IS NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT AND THE
STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST...AT A CONTINUED SLOW PACE...IN ACCORDANCE WITH
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.1N 113.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 113.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 22.4N 114.3W 30 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB