More Cape Verde developments or it's over?

[cycloneye]

00:00z Full Disk Image

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I draw your attention to inside Africa where there is a big complex of convection at a low latitud.I know that it's very early to say if this will go ahead and develop,but right now it looks great.Will this be the last player the CV season will have in 2006?

[StormWarning1]

No, there will be more. Water temps are slightly above normal, so even with a weak El Nino in place a couple more are not out of the question. We are in a warm phase of the multi decadal North Atlantic oscillation I would expect some October development, like 2004.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2004.asp

El Nino means no low latitude development in the Atlantic, below 10N, so nothing likely to make it to 60W. Anything that forms will remain weak until the northward curve begins.

[huricanwatcher]

it aint over till the fat lady sings.......... and i dont hear her yet................ tyvm

[StormWarning1]

it aint over till the fat lady sings.......... and i dont hear her yet................ tyvm

And what does this comment add to the discussion?
I'll answer, nothing.

[huricanwatcher]

Just because....... something may result outside of what you are predicting.....

The season is not over......... any may produce some turbulence that is not foreseen in the latest trend. ........... just putting in my 2 cents........ty

[AJC3]

Luis,

I didn't have time to look inland over Africa while at work today. However, I did notice that the 12Z GFS was really latching onto whatever was behind "the wave trailing Helene" - although, as Lix often says, the GFS seems to have a tendency to develop the "next one coming off Africa".

<long range speculation mode>
Interestingly enough, if the system can get by a weakness that the GFS says will be developing over the EASTERN Atlantic early next week, then there does seem to be a trend toward rebulding the central-western Atlantic ridge well down the road (day 7+). At least that's what I gathered from looking at the 12Z out to 240H.

Of course, the progged mid-upper level synoptic pattern could be 180 degrees different by the weekend anyway, however the guidance did seem to have a different look to it, compared to the omnipresent western Atlantic trough-o-rama.
</long range speculation mode>

[Stormcenter]

We are talking about a system (if it were to develop at all)that is two weeks away and we all know the fronts/troughs will just get stronger and stronger as the days and weeks go by. We are now in mid September and things are still looking good. I still have my toes and fingers crossed though just in case.

[cycloneye]

Luis,

I didn't have time to look inland over Africa while at work today. However, I did notice that the 12Z GFS was really latching onto whatever was behind "the wave trailing Helene" - although, as Lix often says, the GFS seems to have a tendency to develop the "next one coming off Africa".

<long range speculation mode>
Interestingly enough, if the system can get by a weakness that the GFS says will be developing over the EASTERN Atlantic early next week, then there does seem to be a trend toward rebulding the central-western Atlantic ridge well down the road (day 7+). At least that's what I gathered from looking at the 12Z out to 240H.

Of course, the progged mid-upper level synoptic pattern could be 180 degrees different by the weekend anyway, however the guidance did seem to have a different look to it, compared to the omnipresent western Atlantic trough-o-rama.
</long range speculation mode>

Yeah,AJC3,it's a very long ways out to even especulate about the models and the pattern that will be setting up once this system excits Africa.Let's see when the moment this emerges the coast,what pattern is in place and what the global models show.

[LaBreeze]

I do believe that I spotted the fat lady around here (the GOM), she was doing a few vocal exercises and shopping for her formal dress for her soon to be final solo.

[Dean4Storms]

I noticed that too AJC, the GFS long range shows alot more ridging for the western Atlantic and brings alot of stuff toward the Bahamas and westward toward the Gulf with a big ridge parked over the eastern seaboard, Indian Summer?

[cycloneye]

12:00z Full Disk Image

This 12:00z image shows a circulation around 9n but compared with last night,convection has weakened a bit.Let's see when this exits the coast in 2 days,what conditions it will have to develop or not and how will be the pattern of the ridges and troughs.

[TampaSteve]

12:00z Full Disk Image

This 12:00z image shows a circulation around 9n but compared with last night,convection has weakened a bit.Let's see when this exits the coast in 2 days,what conditions it will have to develop or not and how will be the pattern of the ridges and troughs.

Hmmm...

[gatorcane]

maybe we should change the title to "Helene the last CV system of 2006"?

[cycloneye]

18:00z Full Disk Image

The system continues to look good this afternoon at the 18:00z pic.To not confuse members,the system I am talking about is the one that is located at a fairly low latitud and has passed the half part of the African Continent.

gatorcane,it's not over until it's over as Yogi said.

[Sanibel]

The one just entering the Africa screen seems to be at a lower latitude than those previous.

I see Cycloneye saw that too.

[Zardoz]

Does it look like it could exit the coast at a lower lat than Helene (and the one following Helene)? :

Eumetsat

(Edit: Ha! Posted the same thought within a minute of each other, Sanibel!)


.

[Scorpion]

In my opinion, the only way for the US to get hit this year is by homegrown systems.

[quandary]

So what are people's thoughts on the development chances of the system immediately behind Helene, which the NHC says has a 1013mb low on it right now with some convection and on this system, which currently presents a lot of convention over Africa?

[cycloneye]

HenkL any word from the NAMMA project about the system inside Africa?

[Zardoz]

Busy, busy, busy: