Jeff Masters Interview in the Houstonist

[jasons2k]

Dr. Masters has an interview here in the Houstonist where he discusses the 2006 Hurricane Season and talks about TX Hurricanes:

http://www.houstonist.com/archives/2006 ... w_with.php

Also, if you have time, sign the petition to save the River Oaks Theater as well (left sidebar) - it's a worthy cause.

[jlauderdal]

Dr. Masters has an interview here in the Houstonist where he discusses the 2006 Hurricane Season and talks about TX Hurricanes:

http://www.houstonist.com/archives/2006 ... w_with.php

Also, if you have time, sign the petition to save the River Oaks Theater as well (left sidebar) - it's a worthy cause.

1. I signed the petition
2. Texas closed for hurricane business the rest of this year.

[Rainband]

I signed the petition. Worthy cause.

[jasons2k]

Thanks for signing! I agree TX is closed for the season.

[cycloneye]

BTW can a Mod change the title to say Masters' (not Master's)? Thanks.

Title edited.

[Deputy Van Halen]

I was confused by this paragraph, the most important of the interview from my perspective:

"The steering pattern is unchanged from early June, and favors recurvature out to sea of the major storms born from tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. For this reason, plus the fact the atmosphere has been dryer and more stable than usual, I expect that we won't see any major hurricanes affecting the U.S. the remainder of hurricane season. Once we get into the first half of October, we may get one or two tropical storms or perhaps Category 1 hurricanes developing in the Gulf or Mexico or off the Carolina coast from the remnants of old cold fronts that hang out over the warm ocean waters. Developments of this nature usually move north or northeast, so I put the odds of Texas getting a Category 1 or 2 hurricane this season at 30%. The odds of a major hurricane for Texas are perhaps 10%."


Wait a minute. 30% THIS season?? Isn't that higher than the typical odds for an ENTIRE season? And he says this right after saying that the kind of developments he is talking about typically move north or northeast (i.e. NOT towards Texas). And 10% chance of a major? Does that also mean THIS season (since that's what he said in the last paragraph)? But didn't he just tell us that he doesn't expect a major anywhere in the U.S. this season (much less Texas specifically)?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was confused by this paragraph, the most important of the interview from my perspective:

"The steering pattern is unchanged from early June, and favors recurvature out to sea of the major storms born from tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. For this reason, plus the fact the atmosphere has been dryer and more stable than usual, I expect that we won't see any major hurricanes affecting the U.S. the remainder of hurricane season. Once we get into the first half of October, we may get one or two tropical storms or perhaps Category 1 hurricanes developing in the Gulf or Mexico or off the Carolina coast from the remnants of old cold fronts that hang out over the warm ocean waters. Developments of this nature usually move north or northeast, so I put the odds of Texas getting a Category 1 or 2 hurricane this season at 30%. The odds of a major hurricane for Texas are perhaps 10%."


Wait a minute. 30% THIS season?? Isn't that higher than the typical odds for an ENTIRE season? And he says this right after saying that the kind of developments he is talking about typically move north or northeast (i.e. NOT towards Texas). And 10% chance of a major? Does that also mean THIS season (since that's what he said in the last paragraph)? But didn't he just tell us that he doesn't expect a major anywhere in the U.S. this season (much less Texas specifically)?

yeah, wow, 30% for a Cat. 1/2 and 10% for a major does seem quite high considering we only have about a month long window of oppurtunity left for a hurricane to reach us.

[Rainband]

Seems like the western GOM will be closed with the fronts coming down.

[ROCK]

I was confused by this paragraph, the most important of the interview from my perspective:

"The steering pattern is unchanged from early June, and favors recurvature out to sea of the major storms born from tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. For this reason, plus the fact the atmosphere has been dryer and more stable than usual, I expect that we won't see any major hurricanes affecting the U.S. the remainder of hurricane season. Once we get into the first half of October, we may get one or two tropical storms or perhaps Category 1 hurricanes developing in the Gulf or Mexico or off the Carolina coast from the remnants of old cold fronts that hang out over the warm ocean waters. Developments of this nature usually move north or northeast, so I put the odds of Texas getting a Category 1 or 2 hurricane this season at 30%. The odds of a major hurricane for Texas are perhaps 10%."


Wait a minute. 30% THIS season?? Isn't that higher than the typical odds for an ENTIRE season? And he says this right after saying that the kind of developments he is talking about typically move north or northeast (i.e. NOT towards Texas). And 10% chance of a major? Does that also mean THIS season (since that's what he said in the last paragraph)? But didn't he just tell us that he doesn't expect a major anywhere in the U.S. this season (much less Texas specifically)?

yeah, wow, 30% for a Cat. 1/2 and 10% for a major does seem quite high considering we only have about a month long window of oppurtunity left for a hurricane to reach us.

remember Jerry....wasn't much but a cat 1 none the less.....

[Deputy Van Halen]

remember Jerry....wasn't much but a cat 1 none the less.....

Yes, and Jerry was 17 years ago. And only three hurricanes have hit Texas since then.

I'm wondering if Masters didn't really mean that if a hurricane DID form in the Gulf, it would have a 30% chance of hitting Texas. Even then, 30% seems high.

Or maybe it was supposed to be 3% for Cat 1/2 and 1% for a major, and somewhere along the line there was a transcription error.

[jasons2k]

I noticed that too and was equally confused. Who knows...Must be that really big "dryer" out there churing things up...hehe.

[Downdraft]

Sobering thoughts from someone that knows what they are talking about.

[Ptarmigan]

remember Jerry....wasn't much but a cat 1 none the less.....

I remember Hurricane Jerry in 1989. It was a small hurricane. We got nothing I remember. I remember seeing clouds. I have read that hurricanes have hit Texas as late as November. There was one documented instance of it in the 16th or 17th century. Hurricane Chantal was a different story. We got a lot of rain and wind.