Invest 95L Models, Sat Pics, Analysis Thread- SE of Cape Cod

[WindRunner]

On NRL now.

NRL 95L

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep... models were hinting at this a couple of days ago.

[WindRunner]

Located off of the Carolina coast . . .

Code: Select all

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invest_al952006.invest
FSTDA
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040
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200609171759
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    INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2006, DB, O, 2006091712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952006
AL, 95, 2006091612,   , BEST,   0, 352N,  722W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 95, 2006091618,   , BEST,   0, 353N,  716W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 95, 2006091700,   , BEST,   0, 353N,  712W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 95, 2006091706,   , BEST,   0, 353N,  710W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 95, 2006091712,   , BEST,   0, 353N,  708W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 95, 2006091718,   , BEST,   0, 354N,  707W,  25, 1006, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  150,  25,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, D,



[WindRunner]

Not much development expected.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952006) ON 20060917 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060917 1800 060918 0600 060918 1800 060919 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.4N 70.7W 35.3N 70.8W 34.9N 71.7W 34.7N 72.6W
BAMM 35.4N 70.7W 35.2N 70.8W 35.3N 71.3W 35.6N 71.8W
A98E 35.4N 70.7W 35.2N 70.8W 34.4N 71.3W 33.5N 71.6W
LBAR 35.4N 70.7W 35.3N 69.8W 35.5N 69.6W 36.0N 69.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060919 1800 060920 1800 060921 1800 060922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.0N 72.3W 40.4N 66.8W 49.9N 59.4W 58.5N 49.5W
BAMM 37.0N 71.4W 43.1N 67.4W 51.5N 59.3W 58.5N 49.5W
A98E 33.6N 71.2W 42.9N 62.2W 54.3N 46.9W 47.9N 35.3W
LBAR 36.7N 69.1W 40.6N 65.8W 47.6N 53.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 37KTS 46KTS 51KTS 51KTS
DSHP 37KTS 46KTS 37KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.4N LONCUR = 70.7W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 35.3N LONM12 = 71.0W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 35.3N LONM24 = 71.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[artist]

[WeatherTracker]

Nothing to worry about.... lets get back to helene....

[HURAKAN]

Not very deep convection.



A lot of dry air.

[Thunder44]

This is the first system which is supposed to Helene north. The ULL mentioned in last night's TPC discussion:

WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE UPPER-LOW THAT
HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN MOVING
EASTWARD SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION...RATHER THAN DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA AS FORECAST BY THE OTHER MODELS. WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS NOW INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER-AIR DATA TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW...
THE 18Z GFS RUN MAY BE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL
FORECAST TRACKS COULD BE FORTHCOMING.

[storm4u]

Is 95L the weakness that helene needs to keep going wnw - nw?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks subtropical to me...Have to watch for convection to improved. Looks like a system I was watching in 2000.

[NONAME]

What system were you watching in 2000

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

This storm...Which had not to deep convection then when the recon got into it. They found a hurricane.

[george_r_1961]

Nothing to worry about.... lets get back to helene....

Its gonna be interesting to see what affect if any this will have on Helene and possibly possibly even Gordon.

[storms in NC]

Last night on our news here in NC said that if this develop it would hold the furtrue to the track of helene. He said it would bring it to Fla and up the coast. Now this is not me saying this. It was on the TV news here. That is all I know and that is what he said. So don't yell at me yell at them.

[Evil Jeremy]

fhe future of Helene depends on this now, not gordon. look here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
where 95L moves, the huge front in front of it will more as well. Helene is suppoused to recurve on that, so if the front weakens a little and moves north along with 95L, we have a big problem on our hands.

[Thunder44]

230
ABNT20 KNHC 172058
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED ABOUT 1430 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES...AND ON
HURRICANE HELENE...LOCATED ABOUT 920 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA IS DRIFTING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[Bane]

jeremy, that isn't the trough is going to pick helene up. it's the trough that is still midway through the usa.

[Evil Jeremy]

i never said that it was going to pick it up.

[Thunder44]

I believe if this transitions into a tropical low or tropical cyclone, it may alow Helene to go further west. If it deepens as a non-tropical low, it will more likely steer Helene to the NE, assuming it doesn't move much from where it is now.

[gatorcane]

I believe if this transtions to a tropical low or tropical cyclone, it may alow Helene to go further west. If it deepens as a non-tropical low, it will steer Helene to the NE, assuming it doesn't move much from where it is now.

it doesn't really matter. That trough is so large it will cleanup everything in the Atlantic that is north of about 20N-25N