Ok.. I'm a bit confused..

Josephine96 · #1 Postby **Josephine96** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:59 pm

I'm a bit confused now..

I keep hearing "GFS keeps Helene west, watch out EC".. or "She aint going past 60-65"..

I have seen no major track shift from the NHC.. I don't know who to believe or what not lol..

I'm lost.. :lol:

Scorpion · #2 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:00 pm

That's because the Euro and the GFDL, 2 of the best models, still have it recurving around 60 W.

#3 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:01 pm

but the GFS, UKMET, are also great models andthey have it heading west!

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:02 pm

Maybe I've just been in a cave the last few days :lol:

#5 Postby **fci** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:14 pm

Seems like GFS and UKMET show it being missed by the first trough and going more west before being picked up by a subsequent trough.

One strange GFS model run had it getting to just east of the Northern Bahamas and then taking a sudden turn North to NC/VA and NJ. I think that GFS model runs after did not have this solution.

I do not think ANY have had this getting to FL.

As I said earlier:

Since she seems to be "bombing" and looking quite impressive; all the more reason to just monitor the models' evolution

When she is a Cat 3 or more; just taking everyones "word" that she will recurve is not enough.

And models 5-10 days out don't mean much either.
So until she takes the permanent turn;
Watch
Wait
Conject and Guess
Argue
Watch S2K

I think you are caught up.

If I miss-spoke anywhere, feel free y'all to correct me....

YouTube · #6 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:17 pm

Nope- no cave just MODEL WARS!

This week only- the GFS vs the GFDL! Special engagement- a "don't miss" showdown between two outstanding models. Who will win? Tune in all week to find out.

Scorpion · #7 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:19 pm

fci wrote:Seems like GFS and UKMET show it being missed by the first trough and going more west before being picked up by a subsequent trough.

One strange GFS model run had it getting to just east of the Northern Bahamas and then taking a sudden turn North to NC/VA and NJ. I think that GFS model runs after did not have this solution.

I do not think ANY have had this getting to FL.

As I said earlier:
Since she seems to be "bombing" and looking quite impressive; all the more reason to just monitor the models' evolution

When she is a Cat 3 or more; just taking everyones "word" that she will recurve is not enough.

And models 5-10 days out don't mean much either.
So until she takes the permanent turn;
Watch
Wait
Conject and Guess
Argue
Watch S2K

I think you are caught up.

If I miss-spoke anywhere, feel free y'all to correct me....

Last nights 18z run had it hitting S FL then going up the East Coast.

Josephine96 · #8 Postby **Josephine96** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:21 pm

i probably just need to pay more attention :lol:

Josephine96 · #9 Postby **Josephine96** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:22 pm

Plus I'm getting lost in the fact that my local mets keeps dismissing it and saying she aint coming anywhere near us.. :lol:

jenmrk · #10 Postby **jenmrk** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:26 pm

deleted ..never mind my question.

Recurve · #11 Postby **Recurve** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:51 pm

Scorpion wrote:Last nights 18z run had it hitting S FL then going up the East Coast.

What? Last night's 18z run of WHAT MODEL at WHAT HOUR?

I've seen no model run anywhere -- and I think I've read every thread about Helene -- that takes this ANYWHERE near Florida or any part of the East Coast. I've seen models that take it farther west before recurve (i.e., closer to Bermuda rather than far west of Bermuda), but "hitting S FL" seems a mischaracterization of the model runs up until now.

I could be wrong, would like to hear more about what you meant.

(edited bad tag)

#12 Postby **brunota2003** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:58 pm

GFS at 18Z last night did not have Helene hitting Florida...it turned it east of Fl and shot it up into the NC/VA region...

kevin · #13 Postby **kevin** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:58 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Plus I'm getting lost in the fact that my local mets keeps dismissing it and saying she aint coming anywhere near us..

Why are you lost? No model I know of takes the storm to Florida.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:03 pm

Last nights 18z run had it hitting S FL then going up the East Coast.

Scorpion,NONE of the models that were west yesterday had a South Florida hit.

#15 Postby **fci** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:06 pm

Scorpion wrote:
Last nights 18z run had it hitting S FL then going up the East Coast.

I believe that this was that this was the model you were referring to (the red line towards FL but turning at the N. Bahamas)

Recurve · #16 Postby **Recurve** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:20 pm

A BAM model? I'm no expert but the BAMs are not for category 3 hurricane track prediction, as I understand it.

Experts/mets, please correct if that's not accurate.

Bgator · #17 Postby **Bgator** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:25 pm

The red model is the GFS...

UpTheCreek · #18 Postby **UpTheCreek** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:27 pm

brunota2003 wrote:GFS at 18Z last night did not have Helene hitting Florida...it turned it east of Fl and shot it up into the NC/VA region...

Brunota is correct, it was the GFS, I saw it too. I'm sure we could research the threads and maybe find at least one image of it.

Recurve · #19 Postby **Recurve** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:29 pm

Bgator wrote:The red model is the GFS...

Thanks for the correction...but GFS also not much of a tool for track prediction of a Cat 3 hurricane, no?

Ok.. I'm a bit confused..

Ok.. I'm a bit confused..

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