Is the Fat Lady getting ready to sing?

[Stormcenter]

Is the Fat Lady getting ready to sing on 2006 season in the GOM? Well she may not be yet but she is clearing her voice. The way it looks out there right now and with the fronts getting stronger and stronger we can almost rule out the possibility of at least a Katrina, Rita or Wilma type storm affecting the GOM coastline in 2006. The waters will only get cooler and cooler as each settles into the GOM. I hope this wonderful unexpected season continues.

[gatorcane]

Is the Fat Lady getting ready to sing on 2006 season in the GOM? Well she may not be yet but she is clearing her voice. The way it looks out there right now and with the fronts getting stronger and stronger we can almost rule out the possibility of at least a Katrina, Rita or Wilma type storm affecting the GOM coastline in 2006. The waters will only get cooler and cooler as each settles into the GOM. I hope this wonderful unexpected season continues.

I don't think she is singing until Maybe Nov. 1st. Some powerful hurricanes have hit the US especially Florida in October.

South Florida's highest chances of a hit are in October.

[Lindaloo]

She can sing really loud as far as I am concerned.

[hial2]

Is the Fat Lady getting ready to sing on 2006 season in the GOM? Well she may not be yet but she is clearing her voice. The way it looks out there right now and with the fronts getting stronger and stronger we can almost rule out the possibility of at least a Katrina, Rita or Wilma type storm affecting the GOM coastline in 2006. The waters will only get cooler and cooler as each settles into the GOM. I hope this wonderful unexpected season continues.

I don't think she is singing until Maybe Nov. 1st. Some powerful hurricanes have hit the US especially Florida in October.

South Florida's highest chances of a hit are in October.

I think he means Texas, Ms, Louisiana and environs...

[x-y-no]

For Katrina and Rita type scenarios, yes. For Wilma type scenarios, absolutely not.

[Stormcenter]

For Katrina and Rita type scenarios, yes. For Wilma type scenarios, absolutely not.

I'm sorry I should have been more specific. I meant the Texas to FL panhandle areas.

[beachbum_al]

Keeping on singing at the top of your lungs Lady.

[dwg71]

How many Hurricanes have made landfall in TX after Oct 1? Anybody know?

[Stratosphere747]

How many Hurricanes have made landfall in TX after Oct 1? Anybody know?

Since 1950, only one that I remember. Jerry....

[wxman57]

How many Hurricanes have made landfall in TX after Oct 1? Anybody know?

I didn't check these years/storms, but I had the data handy:

1867 Oct. 2, NOTNAMED 90 mph H2
1912 Oct. 16, NOTNAMED 85 mph H2
1949 Oct. 4, NOTNAMED 115 mph H4
1989 Oct. 16, JERRY 75 mph H1

The 1949 storm crossed Mexico, headed north, then hit Houston as a Cat 3 or 4.

As for the topic, I don't think the Fat Lady is ready to sing. The pattern is shaping up for a Caribbean Sea development over the next few weeks. The strong fronts moving off the east Coast are just the type of pattern that could develop a storm in the western Caribbean. Such a storm COULD take a Wilma-type track. But if the timing is right, I wouldn't rule out a mid Gulf Coast hit (like Lili of '02 on Oct. 4th).

[gatorcane]

How many Hurricanes have made landfall in TX after Oct 1? Anybody know?

I didn't check these years/storms, but I had the data handy:

1867 Oct. 2, NOTNAMED 90 mph H2
1912 Oct. 16, NOTNAMED 85 mph H2
1949 Oct. 4, NOTNAMED 115 mph H4
1989 Oct. 16, JERRY 75 mph H1

The 1949 storm crossed Mexico, headed north, then hit Houston as a Cat 3 or 4.

As for the topic, I don't think the Fat Lady is ready to sing. The pattern is shaping up for a Caribbean Sea development over the next few weeks. The strong fronts moving off the east Coast are just the type of pattern that could develop a storm in the western Caribbean. Such a storm COULD take a Wilma-type track. But if the timing is right, I wouldn't rule out a mid Gulf Coast hit (like Lili of '02 on Oct. 4th).

Yes I agree, that is if something can actually develop in the NW or SW Caribbean.

[Opal storm]

Anything that develops in the Gulf/NW Carib will most likely be sweep NE across south FL and probably just be a sheared tropical storm.

[Stormcenter]

Anything that develops in the Gulf/NW Carib will most likely be sweep NE across south FL and probably just be a sheared tropical storm.

I agree.


I'm sorry I've been hearing the talk of the "pattern" changing the entire season and here we are September 18th with one cold front sweeping through and another coming down the next week. I'm not saying it can't happen but the likelihood of a "major" hurricane making landfall from Texas to the FL. panhandle is slim now.

[wxman57]

I'm sorry I've been hearing the talk of the "pattern" changing the entire season and here we are September 18th with one cold front sweeping through and another coming down the next week. I'm not saying it can't happen but the likelihood of a "major" hurricane making landfall from Texas to the FL. panhandle is slim now.

The pattern did change in August - we've had 5 named storms including 4 hurricanes and 2 majors. And the pattern is most definitely changing again. The fronts ARE the change.

Statistically, we're just past the mid point of the season. We should expect about as many named storms after Sept. 10th as before. So we could see another 5-7 named storms, including 1-2 majors.

Of course, the later we go into September, the farther east the threat. I didn't say that the northern Gulf Coast WILL be hit by a storm, just that you cannot rule out such a landfall, probably until late October.

Cold fronts entering the Gulf can be just the focus that is needed for tropical development in the southern Gulf or NW Caribbean. Where they go depends on the position of the transient high center north of the developing storms. That's why even Texas isn't out of the woods yet.

[wxman57]

Anything that develops in the Gulf/NW Carib will most likely be sweep NE across south FL and probably just be a sheared tropical storm.

Wilma formed the 3rd-4th week of October. Some would argue it was more than a sheared TS.

[gatorcane]

Anything that develops in the Gulf/NW Carib will most likely be sweep NE across south FL and probably just be a sheared tropical storm.

Wilma formed the 3rd-4th week of October. Some would argue it was more than a sheared TS.

it only had the lowest pressure ever recorded. How about CAT 5 hurricane Mitch in Oct 1998 ?

[fci]

Anything that develops in the Gulf/NW Carib will most likely be sweep NE across south FL and probably just be a sheared tropical storm.

Yeah, allow me to "pile on"..
There is NO basis that I can see for your statement that probably all that likely occur would be a just a sheared tropical storm.
But before I continue my "pile on"; what IS your basis for the statement?

[Stormcenter]

How many "major" hurricanes have formed off of old fronts in late September or October? If I can recall very,very few.

My point is I'm not saying we won't see a weak hurricane (unlikely IMO)in the GOM but only saying that it is very unlikely we will see a "major" hurricane form off an old stalled front. I wouldn't use Wilma as comparison just based on last was not a "normal" season to begin with.

[Panic!: meet the press]

mmm no fun...people in the south could use the rain

[MiamiensisWx]

How many "major" hurricanes have formed off of old fronts in late September or October? If I can recall very,very few.

My point is I'm not saying we won't see a weak hurricane (unlikely IMO)in the GOM but only saying that it is very unlikely we will see a "major" hurricane form off an old stalled front. I wouldn't use Wilma as comparison just based on last was not a "normal" season to begin with.

I have to disagree with your last sentence strongly. There are numerous hurricanes (including several Category Three storms or higher) and tropical storms that have developed in other years late in the season besides 2005. Also, just because 2005 had an anomalous total number of named systems, Wilma wasn't anomalous at all (other than the record low pressure at peak intensity). Recall Mitch (1998) and Janet (1955), as well as numerous other late-season storms from other years.