Thunder44's Gordon 5am Mon Forecast: Gordon Weakening

[Thunder44]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

11pm Mon Forecast: A Threat to the Azores

As of the 11pm Advisory, the NHC placed the center of Hurricane Gordon currently at 38.0N 41.6W and is moving to the east at 24kts. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 85kts and the minimum central pressure is 972mb. This makes Gordon a Cat 2 hurricane. There is now a official hurricane warning in effect for the Azores. Please refer to NHC products for official information and emergency planning.

Gordon’s track is clear cut. The storm is already embedded within the strong westerlies across the North Atlantic and it’s only track for here on should be E to ENE, at increasing forward speed later tonight and tomorrow. The eye of the storm should be moving quickly through the Azores by tomorrow night, but the first effects will be felt here as soon tomorrow afternoon. This scenario is shown by all the models and forecast track is close to the CONU and the official NHC track.

What has not been so clear cut, is whether or not Gordon will still be a tropical cyclone when it moves the Azores and if so, how strong will it be. So far tonight on satellite imagery I see no signs of this storm losing tropical characteristics, even as it moves over cooler water and under a lot of westerly shear. So the official forecast will call for Gordon to remain a tropical cyclone as it moves through the Azores and also as a hurricane, while gradually weakening as well. It should then become extratropical before it impacts Portugal and Spain.

I will have an update on this forecast tomorrow.

Forecast Points and Intensity:

Initial 38.0 N 41.6W 85kt
12hrs 38.0W 36.0W 80kt
24hrs 38.0W 28.3W 70kt
36hrs 38.1N 19.5W 60kt...Becoming Extratropical
48hrs 40.5N 13.4W 50kt...Extratropical

[AJC3]

Track looks a tad south to me. I think the eye will pass much closer to Corvo and Flores than the larger islands to the south. OTRW...agree w/r/t the system retaining TC characteristics until it blasts through the Azores.

[Thunder44]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

6am Update: Gordon Strengthens

As of the 5am Advisory, the NHC has placed the center currently at 38.1N 38.7W and is moving to the east at 24kts. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90kts and the pressure is at 970mb.

This update is for the intensity forecast. Despite moving over cooler water, Gordon still managed to strengthen a little overnight and is now a strong Cat 2 hurricane. Latest satellite images show that Gordon’s eye and appearance has begun to deteriorate. So weakening should be begin soon. The forecast track has not changed and Gordon is still expected to move through the Azores later today and tonight as a hurricane.

I will have a new forecast out this afternoon.

Forecast Points and Intensity:
Initial 38.1 N 38.7W 90kt
12hrs 38.0W 36.0W 80kt
24hrs 38.0W 28.3W 75kt
36hrs 38.1N 19.5W 60kt...Becoming Extratropical
48hrs 40.5N 13.4W 50kt...Extratropical

[Thunder44]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


7am Update: Direct Hit on Pico

I’ve decided to also update the forecast track now. The storm headed just north of due east at 85 degrees. I shifted my track a bit further north, and at this time, I expect the eye to go directly over Pico and very close to the other islands of Faial, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceria, tonight. This is my opinion and forecast only. Please refer to NHC products for official information and emergency planning.

Forecast Points and Intensity:

Initial 38.1 N 38.7W 90kt
12hrs 38.2W 32.5W 80kt
24hrs 38.3W 24.0W 75kt
36hrs 40.1N 15.6W 55kt...Extratropical

[Thunder44]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

5pm Tuesday Forecast: The Rare Azores Hurricane


Discussion:

As of the 5pm Advisory, the NHC placed the center of Hurricane Gordon currently at 37.9N and 31.6W and is moving to the east at 31mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 75kts and minimum central pressure is at 979mb.

Gordon jogged to the ESE late this morning and earlier this afternoon as it was being influenced by a cold front from a large non-tropical low to it’s north. Now over the last couple hours it appears to have resumed a east movement and may even start going ENE soon as it seems to be moving around the periphery of the larger low. However it is now little south my previous forecast track and my new forecast track is shifted a little further south. On my current track, the eye should pass south of Pico and very close to or over Sao Miguel later tonight. This track is also in agreement with 12z runs of GFDL and UKMET which showed this ESE movement today Nevertheless, a hurricane is not a eye or point. Hurricane force winds either sustained or gusts are a likely to occur tonight across these islands and their neighboring islands.

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that Gordon still looks very much like a tropical cyclone this afternoon and it’s appearance has improved over the last few hours from earlier today. However satellite imagery also shows that it may soon be absorbed by the large non-tropical low in the North Atlantic. And seems to me to be the more likely scenario with Gordon, then just transitioning to an extratropical storm. When this will happen is the question, but considering the improved appearance Gordon now, this seems likely to happen after it moves across the Azores. However it should continue to weaken as moves over even colder waters. So I expect Gordon now to be at about at minimal hurricane strength or perhaps just below that. The GFDL shows the storm weakening to well below hurricane strength, before reaching the islands and being absorbed by the non-tropical low faster than this forecast. The intensity forecast is closer to 18z SHIPS, which has Gordon near hurricane strength for the moving through the Azores.

I will have another forecast out tomorrow morning and I will have updates before then if there are significant changes to the forecast. My forecast and discussion is based on my amateur opinion only. Please refer to the NHC products for official information and emergency planning, especially if you live in Azores.

Forecast Points and Intensity:

Initial 37.9N 31.6W 75kt
12hrs 38.3N 32.5W 65kt
24hrs 38.9N 19.6W 55kt...Becoming Extratropical
36hrs 42.0N 12.8W 45kt...Extratropical and Being Absorbed by a Larger Extratropical Storm

[Derek Ortt]

you may be weakening this system just a little too quickly. The cool waters should not have much affect at all. It is the SST to tropopause temp gradient that governs instability

[Cryomaniac]

Any chance of the remnant of this (or at a big push the system itself) coming close to the south west cost of england?

[Thunder44]

you may be weakening this system just a little too quickly. The cool waters should not have much affect at all. It is the SST to tropopause temp gradient that governs instability

What do you mean as a tropical cyclone or a extratropical storm?

[Thunder44]

Any chance of the remnant of this (or at a big push the system itself) coming close to the south west cost of england?

The models show it becoming part of a bigger extratropical storm developing east of Europe, but I didn't look that far down the road to see what eventually happens to it.

[Derek Ortt]

I think you're weakening it too quick regardless as to whether it is tropical or not

[Thunder44]

I think you're weakening it too quick regardless as to whether it is tropical or not

0z models initialized at 70kts. I have it at 65kts at 5am tomorrow just west of Sao Miguel.

[Thunder44]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

5am Wed Forecast: Gordon Weakening

As of the 5am Advisory, the NHC placed the center of Hurricane Gordon at 37.8N 24.2W and is moving to the east at 30kts. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kts and the minimum central pressure is at 987mb.

As expected, Gordon has been weakening overnight as it moved over colder water and some increasing NW shear from large and powerful non-tropical storm east of British Isles. Gordon is now barely a hurricane and appears to be merging with a frontal boundary and losing tropical characteristics on satellite imagery this morning. Gordon moved very close to Sao Miguel over the last few hours and is now racing out east of the Azores. I expect Gordon to become extratropical during the day today, then to merge with a large non-tropical storm by tomorrow. This storm could be bring heavy rains and strong, gusty winds to Western Europe during the next few days.

Since Gordon will not be a threat as a tropical cyclone to anyone after today, this will be my last forecast here on this storm.

Forecast Points and Intensity:

Initial 37.8N 24.2W 65kts
12hrs 40.1N 17.0W 55kts...Extratropical
24hrs 43.3N 11.8W 55kts...Merging with a Another Extratropical Storm