NOGAPS honkin' on possible development in SW Carrib

caneman · #1 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:21 am

Maybe nothing but NOGAPS has been pretty conservative all year on development. There is an area brewing in deep SW Carrib. and we're coming into a time where this is a favored area. Maybe nothin but worth watchin for run to run support from this and other models.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

caneman · #2 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:57 am

Looks interesting

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Normandy · #3 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 5:06 am

^ What looks interesting?

The Car Sea looks quite as a mouse

caneman · #4 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 5:24 am

Just off the South American coast.

#5 Postby **StormTracker** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 5:55 am

I'll definitely be keeping an eye on it! You never know!!! :roll:

perk · #6 Postby **perk** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 6:05 am

StormTracker wrote:I'll definitely be keeping an eye on it! You never know!!!

That's just about where Carla developed in 1961.

Steve H. · #7 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:04 am

Yeah, saw that this morning as well. Some of the other models are alluding to development near Cuba, but the NOGAPS is showing something there. Big flareup of convection in the SW Caribbean this morning as well. Those pressures are low in the area and SSTs are still quite warm, so rising heights in the east tend to lower them in the western Caribbean. Let's see how the next few days unfolds, but this is the time of year for it. 8-)

boca · #8 Postby **boca** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:16 am

Looks like its part of the ITCZ down there. At least its something to look at instead of clear skies that we seen all season long in that area.

Nimbus · #9 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:49 am

They will make it an invest if the convection persists. The SST's are just off their peaks and this area looks like it has the best chance of being a threat.

Hyperstorm · #10 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:58 am

I think this NOGAPS solution seems fairly reasonable.

Right now, there is an upper-low over Nicaragua that is pulling this system northward. This is a very classic setup. I think NOGAPS is seeing this. According to the model, in a couple of days a major trough will be moving through the south-eastern US. Due to the flow around it, this area of disturbed weather is pulled northward. Then, the trough moves away and leaves the system in weak steering currents in NW Caribbean waters just north of Honduras. If that happens, development may very well take place. However, the NOGAPS is also showing a VERY strong jet stream throughout the entire Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic. If that happens, the system won't stand much chance of a major impact toward the US (if it heads that way). Most likely it will be a Central American to Mexico threat, if any.

Of course, we'll have to see if it persists. There have been many areas of convection north of Panama over the years and only a minuscule amount of them develop.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:59 am

I want to see honkin also from GFS,GFDL,CMC,UKMET and EURO to have a global model consensus.Also that convection that we are seeing this morning has to persist for 24 hours.If it's there tommorow then a more serious look is in order.

Sanibel · #12 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:06 am

We had bright perfectly clear blue skies here yesterday. Almost like an early-onset of the dry season. To me this bodes against any west Caribbean development this year. However, with the Atlantic being so horrible for development, this bodes in favor of the west Caribbean producing a storm. It was also warm and humid last night and felt like there was still one hurricane's worth of juice left in the atmopshere.

All things considered, I'd say 2006 and the mild Nino will bust the whole season to the end. No development.

#13 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:13 am

Looks like the NOGAPS was on to something by the looks of the SW Caribbean this morning.

rockyman · #14 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:18 am

First visible loop of day looking impressive...area of most rotation appears to be just east of the Panama/Costa Rica border

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:21 am

All things considered, I'd say 2006 and the mild Nino will bust the whole season to the end. No development.

That is a bold statement,but never say never in the tropics.

rockyman · #16 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:21 am

While the MJO is still negative for development, it is less negative over the far western Caribbean than over the central and eastern Carib.

chrisnnavarre · #17 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:23 am

Was watching this area early this morning...couldn't find any pressure readings for Panama. Does anyone have any links for that area? My guess is that this develops. Look at it this way, all that heat down there and in the GOM has got to go somewhere. It's simply the balance of nature.

#18 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:24 am

chrisnnavarre wrote:Was watching this area early this morning...couldn't find any pressure readings for Panama. Does anyone have any links for that area? My guess is that this develops. Look at it this way, all that heat down there and in the GOM has got to go somewhere. It's simply the balance of nature.

I agree but we need persistence. If if is still blossoming in 24 hours then we really need to watch it. Also it does appear that it could crash right into the central american coast or will the trough to the north be enough to let it gain some lattitude?

Sanibel · #19 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:38 am

If there's any surface swirl with this it is over by the Costa Rican/Panama border. If so it will crash into Costa Rica with the easterly EPAC cross-over flow.

#20 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:46 am

I wouldn't be so quick to say it will crash into central America.

NOGAPS honkin' on possible development in SW Carrib

NOGAPS honkin' on possible development in SW Carrib

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