W. Caribbean Blob

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:08 am

Its not the same blob from a week ago but I have been very weary of the SW Caribbean. Now we have quite a blowup of convection and it is getting pulled NW in response to the trough the north.

Sanibel · #2 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:36 am

Shouldn't bump a thread that has nothing to do with the current system.

This one is headed for Central America from the looks of it.

#3 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:01 am

The only thing I would think that if convection continues to fire until the wave in the c. caribbean gets into the w. caribbean.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

#4 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:02 am

Looks like this thread and the thread posted below may have something in common.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=90075

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:03 am

yep I think you are right about the two threads :wink:

#6 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:16 am

This forum is not exactly crowed lately, so a few threads about the same subject shouldn't be out of line.

#7 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:19 am

dixiebreeze wrote:This forum is not exactly crowed lately, so a few threads about the same subject shouldn't be out of line.

my thread talks about the blob, the other thread talks about a model predicting a blob - so there is actually a subtle difference

#8 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:22 am

gatorcane wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:This forum is not exactly crowed lately, so a few threads about the same subject shouldn't be out of line.

my thread talks about the blob, the other thread talks about a model predicting a blob - so there is actually a subtle difference

I wasn't saying there are two threads on the same thing. I'm just saying they seem to be related in someway if convection in the SW caribbean persists and NOGAPS continually develops an area of low pressure it should be watched.

#9 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:23 am

gatorcane wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:This forum is not exactly crowed lately, so a few threads about the same subject shouldn't be out of line.

my thread talks about the blob, the other thread talks about a model predicting a blob - so there is actually a subtle difference

Right. Splitting too many hairs makes the forum pretty dull. Like a lot of folks, I don't always have time to sift through long threads for info.

It's a great forum and I'd like see people come back.

#10 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:23 am

looks like clouds tops are warming some this morning.....

caneman · #11 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:25 am

Come on now you can't bring up a blob from a week ago and possibly think it has anyhting to do with what is going on now. Some people just like to see their name in lights :wink:

So here ya go :idea:

rockyman · #12 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:34 am

No mention of area in 1130am TWO

#13 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:35 am

rockyman wrote:No mention of area in 1130am TWO

Persistence is the key as it is just flaring up this morning. They will wait to see if it continues to fire up over the next day or so.

rockyman · #14 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:36 am

There is a 1007 low (the Colombian heat low, I think) in the area:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

Also, according to TAFB, the ITCZ is actually well south over and just south of Panama...so anything forming north of Panama might be able to "stand alone"

#15 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:40 am

rockyman wrote:There is a 1007 low (the Colombian heat low, I think) in the area:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

Also, according to TAFB, the ITCZ is actually well south over and just south of Panama...so anything forming north of Panama might be able to "stand alone"

Should be interesting to see if that low persists there as the wave draws closer. May be an area to watch as Nogaps is suggesting.

rockyman · #16 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:47 am

Wow! ...look at the upper divergence:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

LL Convergence is good:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Vorticity near surface:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

Shear is not quite as favorable:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

SWFLA_CANE · #17 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:54 am

Looks more impressive then 96L.

#18 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:59 am

GFS suggests that Upper Level winds may be a little more conducive for development in the next couple of days.

#19 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:05 am

rockyman wrote:Wow! ...look at the upper divergence:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

LL Convergence is good:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Vorticity near surface:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

Shear is not quite as favorable:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Also to note on that shear map that you noted is that looking at the Upper Level Winds in the 200mb region, it may be an upper high and instead of shearing it would possibly ventilate a system rather efficiently.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

As you noted above the Upper Level Divergence is quite well over top. This may be the case or I could be flat out wrong. :lol:

#20 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:54 pm

well it looks like some more convection is starting to refire even during the diurnal minimum. I think this thing bears watching as it drifts northward.

This is the time of year you would expect something to blow up down here.

W. Caribbean Blob

W. Caribbean Blob

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