How many named systems will form the rest of season?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:19 pm

I say two more named systems will form during the rest of the season.

To clarify,this question poll is for named systems,not include depressions that may form.

This poll was approved by myself.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:47 pm

I forgot to mention that any comments that you may have about the rest of the season apart from voting in the poll options,can be posted here.

#3 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:49 pm

i believe that there will be 2, but there is a possiblility of a large peak in october so im gonna keep my options open with 4

#4 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:53 pm

i still believe that there is room for 5-6 more storms.

#5 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:06 pm

I'm down for 2.
Just don't see this season as suddenly accelerating.

#6 Postby **Buck** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:18 pm

5-7... I voted 5. I think we'll have at least one named storm run into or be formed in December.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:41 pm

Good participation so far as all the poll options haved been voted.Keep the votes comming and also any comments about the rest of the season.

caribepr · #8 Postby **caribepr** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:51 pm

I voted two. Just seems easily possible, where beyond two doesn't. But...it only takes one. We're all having (I'm so scared to type this!!) a pretty good feeling about this year at this point - not that vigilance has lessened but close to ready to take that deep breath...and let it out.

#9 Postby **MGC** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:12 pm

I voted for two. One in the Atlantic, one in the NW Carb......MGC

#10 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:26 pm

We basically have about 5 weeks of primetime Atlantic development where we see a secondary peak in early Oct. Things are quiet now but we can't let that fool us as there is pleny of latent heat left across the GOM, Caribbean, and Western Atlantic.

I'm going to go with 4 named storms. Something in the Western Caribbean that may threaten the US and maybe a weak system in the GOM later in October and a couple of more fish out in the Atlantic.

WindRunner · #11 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:50 pm

I put in for 5 . . . though that may be a touch high. For a range, I'd say from 4 to 5.5, as I think that six could form, but it isn't highly likely from this point of view in time.

MiamiensisWx · #12 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:55 pm

I think we may see three more named systems potentially (which I cast my vote by), though I don't expect any numbers much higher than that. Given the longer-term to middle-range synoptics down the road, OLR, weak to borderline weak/moderate warm ENSO, weak MJO synoptics that may favor potential west-central Caribbean or southern Gulf development, as well as other synoptics and potential for west-central Atlantic frontal development very late in the season as an outlier, three more potential named systems seems reasonable. Other than that, I don't expect much more than three.

Hurrilurker · #13 Postby **Hurrilurker** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 6:17 am

Are the highs expected to shift significantly enough to allow a storm to track all the way from Africa to the U.S./Gulf? Because right now it just seems like it's set up for a fish pattern all year long (along with the dry air and shear that have been limiting development).

NCgreenhead · #14 Postby **NCgreenhead** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:16 am

I would say 0-2, I bet my brother back in July we would end up with 8 so I need them to stop now, however a few more storms seem likely.

I do have a question to ask, if sub tropical storms get names do they count towards the "offical" count for "tropical" systems for this year? I mean how would they list it if they do assign one of this years names to a sub tropical season in the end of the year tally?

jusforsean · #15 Postby **jusforsean** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:23 am

I am thinking 2 - 4 I voted 2 but I havent given up on the seson yet, i still believe Oct might reel in a few even if they dont threaten land.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 10:11 am

Very good voting going on with two of the options almost tied.

A reminder that this poll is only for named systems,not Tropical Depressions that may form and stay as TD'S.If something Sub-Tropical forms it counts as a named system as NHC has been naming Sub-Tropical systems since 2002.

Cryomaniac · #17 Postby **Cryomaniac** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:15 pm

I say three, doesn't seem likely there will be more than that, but I think there will be a storm in mid-late december.

#18 Postby **Andrew92** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 1:45 pm

I think we could still see 4 storms before the season is over. Only one or two of them hurricanes, though.

-Andrew92

becca1695 · #19 Postby **becca1695** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 1:53 pm

I say ZERO, nada, nothing for the rest of the year! (Or is that just wishful thinking?)

shaggy · #20 Postby **shaggy** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:40 pm

its hard to say nowadays with the NHC now naming sub-tropical systems.Its possible they name more than 2 of these as we start to get later in the year but i said 2 more storms and those will likely be homegrown or the tail end of fronts with the exception of 96L but when its gone the C atlantic should be shuttin down soon.