Invest 97L North of V.I,Puerto Rico,Models,Sats and Comments

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

I suspect is for wave at 30w but pic is not available yet.

[Jim Cantore]

How many invests is this now? 28?

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif

great. another recurver forecasted. but wait! this one will hit Florida! what a suprise

[cycloneye]

Well,now that the available image is up,I see that the area is the same as 96L,so something is not right here in terms of location.

[Thunder44]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

great. another recurver forecasted. but wait! this one will hit Florida! what a suprise

I see a model plot of a system in the Carribean.

[superfly]

That's probably the old 97L, there's nothing in the eastern Carribean right now.

[Evil Jeremy]

good point. that probably is an old pic. after all, if any models were run for it, they would already be here in tet!

[Thunder44]

I think they are trying to relocate the center further north. So it causes this "new invest". But it really is the same system. The backup site no longer shows 96L:

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[Evil Jeremy]

Whoops! the models i posted were fro when Ernesto was in Invest form! or was it chris...

[Windsurfer_NYC]

NRL shows 20N 47W

edit: umm, that's where 96L is...

[Thunder44]

NRL shows 20N 47W

That will change when the models come out soon. There's no center seen on visible that far south anymore.

[Evil Jeremy]

this is confusing. why is the NRL making a new invest # for 96L?

[cycloneye]

I think they are trying to relocate the center further north. So it causes this "new invest". But it really is the same system. The backup site no longer shows 96L:

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

That clarify's this.But why make a new invest for the same area is the question that lingers.

[Evil Jeremy]

lets see what happens with the first model plots and then we will know what they are thinking.

[Thunder44]

I think they are trying to relocate the center further north. So it causes this "new invest". But it really is the same system. The backup site no longer shows 96L:

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

That clarify's this.But why make a new invest for the same area is the question that lingers.

I don't know what their procedures are for labeling invests. I'm assuming they are doing this because they've been told they are going to have to relocate a "center" much further north to run the NHC models on.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261200Z SEP 06//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.0N 46.9W TO 24.0N 58.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 260600Z INDICATE THAT A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 47.0W IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 10 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, CANCELLED OR EXPIRE BY
271200Z.//

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Graphic

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

[cycloneye]

I suspect is for wave at 30w

I take back my own words of the first post. But maybe it may not be far that the wave around 30w gets a invest designation soon.

[Thunder44]

Dvorak has the center further at 22.5N:

26/1145 UTC 22.5N 48.8W T1.5/1.5 96L

[Thunder44]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/96L.INVEST/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html

am i the only one who is seeing this page mixed up? are they now taking it down?

No you are not. I'm waiting for the models for 97L to come out. The ones for 96L have already come out. They place the "center" for 96L at 21.4N 49.0W.

[cycloneye]

Ok,now confusion goes way up again.First SSD dvorak has T number for 96L and nothing for new 97L and now the 12:00z models are for old 96L and not for new 97L.