The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
HHRFC
Bulletin
Tropical Depression 9
Advisory 1
3:00PM EDT
Tropical Depression 9 forms over the Central Atlantic.
The Island of Bermuda should track this storm.
At this time, the center of TD9 is estimated by me to be near 52.7W and 25.5N.
Current direction and speed is very uncertain, but we see it heading NW at 12 MPH. This general motion is expected to continue for another 24 hours.
Maximum sustained wind speeds are around 35 MPH. steady strengthening is expected for a few more days.
TD9 should grow into a very large storm, once it strengthens.
The Estimated pressure is 1009 MB and lowering steadily.
The first track on this system will be out soon. The forecast for now is for it to pass with 200 miles east of Bermuda in 60-84 hours, as a storng Tropical Storm. After that, either slow weakening or strengthening could happen.
INITIAL 35 MPH
12HR VT 40 MPH
24HR VT 45 MPH
36HR VT 50 MPH
48HR VT 55 MPH
72HR VT 60 MPH
96HR VT 65 MPH
120HR VT 75 MPH
EJ Isaac Forecast #11: ET in 12 hours, Newfoundland miss.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Evil Jeremy
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EJ Isaac Forecast #11: ET in 12 hours, Newfoundland miss.
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:36 pm, edited 14 times in total.
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Evil Jeremy
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Scott_inVA
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Evil Jeremy
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Derek Ortt
HHRFC is like NWHHC?
Very much a stretch
One thing to have independent forecasts by METEOROLOGISTS that have been used OFFICIALLY before during RAINEX, vs a high school student just getting his feet wet in forecasting.
One comment about the HHRFC forecasts... where is the track forecast? An intensity forecast us utterly useless without a track forecast
Very much a stretch
One thing to have independent forecasts by METEOROLOGISTS that have been used OFFICIALLY before during RAINEX, vs a high school student just getting his feet wet in forecasting.
One comment about the HHRFC forecasts... where is the track forecast? An intensity forecast us utterly useless without a track forecast
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Evil Jeremy
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HHRFC: Hurricane Headlines Researching and Forecaseting Center.
http://www.hhrfc.tk
im doing these to help myself with weather skills.
http://www.hhrfc.tk
im doing these to help myself with weather skills.
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Evil Jeremy wrote:hold on! the HHRFC is just like Derek's center. all unofficial. im adding the disclamer now.
Comparing your little weather skills training center and website to what Derek does is an insult to everyone.
You are a teenager hoping to learn about Meteorology and Derek is a Pro whose career is dedicated to the study of Hurricanes and Meterology and he is a highly respected comtributor to this board and the newspaper.
Your comparison is like comparing South Plantation High's Football Team to an NFL team.
I would suggest you edit out your comment or ask a Mod to delete it for you.
It is an embarrassment that you would make such a comparison.
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Evil Jeremy
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Tropical Depression 9
Advisory 2
11:00PM EDT
TD9 Nearly a Tropical Storm
The Island of Bermuda should monitor the progress of “Nine”. Even though a direct hit is not anticipated, Outer bands from the system can reach the Island in 60 hours.
At this time, the center of TD9 is centered at 27.2N and on 54W.
Direction and speed is still very uncertain, but it is estimated to be heading NNW at 14 MPH. This motion is expected to continue for another 24 hours, followed b an increase of speed.
Maximum Sustained wind speeds are at 35 MPH. mot much change is forecasted in another 12 hours. Minimum pressure is estimated to be at 1009 MB.
TD9 has the potential to grow into a very large storm, and as it strengthens more the wind field will expand.
INITIAL 35 MPH
12HR VT 40 MPH
24HR VT 40 MPH
36HR VT 45 MPH
48HR VT 50 MPH
72HR VT 55 MPH
96HR VT 60 MPH
120HR VT 60 MPH
Tropical Depression 9
Advisory 2
11:00PM EDT
TD9 Nearly a Tropical Storm
The Island of Bermuda should monitor the progress of “Nine”. Even though a direct hit is not anticipated, Outer bands from the system can reach the Island in 60 hours.
At this time, the center of TD9 is centered at 27.2N and on 54W.
Direction and speed is still very uncertain, but it is estimated to be heading NNW at 14 MPH. This motion is expected to continue for another 24 hours, followed b an increase of speed.
Maximum Sustained wind speeds are at 35 MPH. mot much change is forecasted in another 12 hours. Minimum pressure is estimated to be at 1009 MB.
TD9 has the potential to grow into a very large storm, and as it strengthens more the wind field will expand.
INITIAL 35 MPH
12HR VT 40 MPH
24HR VT 40 MPH
36HR VT 45 MPH
48HR VT 50 MPH
72HR VT 55 MPH
96HR VT 60 MPH
120HR VT 60 MPH
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Evil Jeremy
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Tropical Storm Isaac heading into open waters.
The island of Bermuda no longer needs to watch this system. If anything, slightly bigger waves could be felt there in the next day or so.
Wind speeds are at 45 MPH with a pressure of 1009 MB. The storm is not expected to get much stronger before becoming extra-tropical in 96-120 hours now. This is mainly due to the fact that there is vertical shear around the system. Another factor is the cool sea temperatures that Isaac is approaching. If it weren’t for those two factors, Isaac would have the option to become a hurricane.
Thankfully, Isaac has been blessed with the gift of a good center, one that is traceable. We have it now pinpointed 28.7N and at around 54.4W. 6 hours ago, the storm appeared to be heading NNW by the satellite imagery. Now, however, it appears to be heading more to the north than before. Regardless, we are keeping a NNW motion, with a slower 11 MPH speed.. A northward motion should commence within the next 12-18 hours or sooner.
The models continue to show a generally NW-Northward motion for another 60 hours, before turning NNE-NE afterward. Our track takes it a little more east of most of the models through 72 hours, then is more in-line with them afterwards. This means that Bermuda will not be threatened at all by this storm, but parts of Atlantic Canada should look at future advisories.
Initial: 45 MPH
12 Hours: 45 MPH
24 Hours: 50 MPH
36 Hours: 50 MPH
48 Hours: 55 MPH
72 Hours: 50 MPH Becoming Extra-Tropical
96 Hours: 45 MPH Becoming Extra-Tropical
120 Hours: 40 MPH Extra-Tropical
Tropical Storm Isaac heading into open waters.
The island of Bermuda no longer needs to watch this system. If anything, slightly bigger waves could be felt there in the next day or so.
Wind speeds are at 45 MPH with a pressure of 1009 MB. The storm is not expected to get much stronger before becoming extra-tropical in 96-120 hours now. This is mainly due to the fact that there is vertical shear around the system. Another factor is the cool sea temperatures that Isaac is approaching. If it weren’t for those two factors, Isaac would have the option to become a hurricane.
Thankfully, Isaac has been blessed with the gift of a good center, one that is traceable. We have it now pinpointed 28.7N and at around 54.4W. 6 hours ago, the storm appeared to be heading NNW by the satellite imagery. Now, however, it appears to be heading more to the north than before. Regardless, we are keeping a NNW motion, with a slower 11 MPH speed.. A northward motion should commence within the next 12-18 hours or sooner.
The models continue to show a generally NW-Northward motion for another 60 hours, before turning NNE-NE afterward. Our track takes it a little more east of most of the models through 72 hours, then is more in-line with them afterwards. This means that Bermuda will not be threatened at all by this storm, but parts of Atlantic Canada should look at future advisories.
Initial: 45 MPH
12 Hours: 45 MPH
24 Hours: 50 MPH
36 Hours: 50 MPH
48 Hours: 55 MPH
72 Hours: 50 MPH Becoming Extra-Tropical
96 Hours: 45 MPH Becoming Extra-Tropical
120 Hours: 40 MPH Extra-Tropical
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Derek Ortt
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Jim Cantore
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Evil Jeremy
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Evil Jeremy
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from now on, all of my advisories will be on the HHRFC website at http://www.hurricaneh.tk
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Thu Sep 28, 2006 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt
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Derek Ortt
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