Invest 98L South of Azores,Models,Sat Pics,And Discussions

[HURAKAN]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfull.html

The system is still non-tropical but its making progress and maybe in the next 24 to 48 hours we could have some kind of tropical or subtropical depression or storm. Joyce could be around the corner. The 530 PM EDT TWO could be interesting.

[CrazyC83]

Azores? Well to the southeast, in Vince country. Nonetheless, I like the looks of it...could become Joyce this week.

I'd be declaring 98L on that one now.

[Buck]

Yeah, this might should already be an Invest.

[HURAKAN]

I know it's not exactly at the Azores but I just tried to give a well-known geographical place for reference.

[P.K.]

The analysis from last night at 0000 GMT showed this.

Weather bulletin for METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
Toulouse, Monday 2 October 2006 at 09 UTC.

- Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE - Sea : Total significant -
- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger
than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice
the significant height.

Part 1 : WARNING : 444.

Part 2 : General synopsis, Monday 2 at 00 UTC

Thundery low 1008 34N25W, moving southwest, expected 1010 30N30W by
03/12UTC.
Low 994 over north of England, moving northeast, expected over
Norway by 03/00UTC.
Secondary low deepening in trough, expected 1006 just southwest of
cape Finisterre by 02/12UTC, moving northeast, expected 1003 over
east of bay of Biscay by 03/00UTC.
High 1031 42N43W, slowly drifting east and weakening, expected 1026
40N36W by 03/12UTC.
Associated ridge building in east with high expected 1025 38N19W by
03/12UTC.


Low 1010 09N31W moving west 15/20 kt.
ITCZ along 11N13W 9N23W 8N35W 10N46W.

However I don't see it in the 1200 GMT analysis (It is a 1010hPa low in the NOAA charts at the same time).

Weather bulletin for METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE
Toulouse, Monday 2 October 2006 at 21 UTC.

- Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE - Sea : Total significant -
- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger
than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice
the significant height.

Part 1 : WARNING : nr 446.

Part 2 : General synopsis, Monday 2 at 12 UTC

Low 993 over North Sea, moving northeast, expected over Norway by
03/00UTC.
Associated trough extended to southwest with secondary thundery low
1005 just southwest of cape Finisterre. This secondary low moving
northeast and deepening, expected 998 over southeast of Bay of
Biscay by 03/06UTC.
New low " ex ISAAC " expected 994 51N49W by 04/00 UTC. Associated
disturbance reaching west of FARADAY by 04/00 UTC.
High 1031 41N41W moving southeastward, expected 1026 38N18W by
04/00 UTC.

Low 1010 09N32W moving west 10/15 kt.
ITCZ along 12N15W 10N28W 8N37W.

The KNMI international satrep from 1800 GMT shows an ULL at 30N 28W.

[Thunder44]

486
ABNT20 KNHC 022130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
ISAAC...WHICH IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS
MINIMAL. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
COULD SLOWLY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES VERY LITTLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[wxman57]

SSTs in the area are 26-27C. The pattern is similar to the one that spawned several late-season storms in 2005 there. Could well become Joyce in a day or two. Only a threat to the Azorians (is that what they're called?).

[cycloneye]

It's a matter of time that they will start to have model runs for this system,maybe tonight or tommorow morning,and when that occurs invest 98L will be up.

[Yarrah]

KNMI doesn't expect the low to develop into something (sub)tropical but expects it to weaken. Take a look at the following maps: http://www.knmi.nl/waarschuwingen_en_ve ... aarten.php

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Well as I said above,as soon the first run of the models is runned we will see invest 98L and here it is!!!.

[P.K.]

2100 GMT air mass image from Meteosat 9

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

No surprise. Vince 2.0, almost exactly a year later?

[hial2]

SSTs in the area are 26-27C.

The Azores are a jump and a skip away from Iberia and the SSTs are that high so far north? Is that normal? And is it normal for TCs to form in the area? Thanks for the info..

[wxmann_91]

Good find. Kudos to the global models as they developed this feature on runs a few days ago.

[HURAKAN]

SSTs in the area are 26-27C.

The Azores are a jump and a skip away from Iberia and the SSTs are that high so far north? Is that normal? And is it normal for TCs to form in the area? Thanks for the info..

They are between 24º - 26º C.



By the way, NRL initialized at 29.6N & 29.8W @ 35 MPH, 1008 MB. This could very well become Joyce when it does the transition to subtropical or tropical. I will be interesting to see if the NHC is going to wait until it becomes tropical like the did with Otto or begin writing advisories when it starts showing subtropical caracteristics.

[cycloneye]

03/0000 UTC 29.6N 30.9W ST1.5/1.5 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

For those who may not know,that ST that you see beside the T numbers is for SubTropical.

[HURAKAN]

Nice numbers already from Dvorak.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

1008mb / 35kt it says up there.

That means if it closes up, it would immediately become (Sub)Tropical Storm Joyce.