Invest 99L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Models and Discussions

[cycloneye]

Post away any comments that you may have about this new invest.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20061006 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061006 1200 061007 0000 061007 1200 061008 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.6N 70.0W 33.3N 68.9W 37.2N 67.8W 39.4N 66.1W
BAMM 29.6N 70.0W 32.3N 68.5W 35.1N 67.0W 36.7N 65.2W
A98E 29.6N 70.0W 31.7N 68.1W 34.5N 66.0W 36.5N 64.1W
LBAR 29.6N 70.0W 32.6N 68.0W 36.0N 65.7W 38.0N 62.3W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 39KTS 49KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 39KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061008 1200 061009 1200 061010 1200 061011 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 40.1N 63.5W 40.6N 54.9W 39.0N 41.4W 34.9N 32.4W
BAMM 37.3N 63.7W 38.4N 59.9W 40.0N 51.8W 42.0N 40.0W
A98E 37.5N 61.3W 37.5N 53.0W 37.9N 43.0W 36.2N 34.5W
LBAR 38.7N 56.8W 36.4N 42.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 57KTS 59KTS 52KTS
DSHP 54KTS 57KTS 59KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.6N LONCUR = 70.0W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 27.8N LONM12 = 71.6W DIRM12 = 38DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 73.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Models Graphic

[boca]

At least we can't say this will recurve because its already heading NE.

[cycloneye]

At least we can't say this will recurve because its already heading NE.

Yes,that is true,another one for the fishes.

[Thunder44]

It's look to me more like an extratropical system as TPC suggested it would be in their TWO. Don't know why they have an invest on it now.

[cycloneye]

It's look to me more like an extratropical system as TPC suggested it would be in their TWO. Don't know why they have an invest on it now.

If I am the person who decides about the invests,I would have one for the BOC area instead of this area.But they may haved seen something that may indicate some type of development with that 1012 low.

[Coredesat]

Most of the cyclone phase diagrams (GFS, NAM, NOGAPS, MM5) have this becoming or approaching warm core, so it looks like the invest is justified.

[gatorcane]

I have no idea why there is an invest on this when the NHC adamantly vouches "NO DEVELOPMENT" and "UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE"..???

[fci]

I am still going to be disappointed if no one posts that it might turn left or they see a move to the west or northwest......

[Thunder44]

Code: Select all

648
NOUS42 KNHC 061430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 06 OCT 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z OCT 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-129

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR BERMUDA)
       A. 07/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
       C. 07/1400Z
       D. 34.0N 67.0W
       E. 07/1700Z TO 07/2100Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       G. TEAL 70

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

Plane scheduled to fly in tomorrow afternoon.

[gatorcane]

why would we waste a trip when model guidance says it is fish all the way and its nothing to begin with? I really don't understand.

[storms in NC]

I am still going to be disappointed if no one posts that it might turn left or they see a move to the west or northwest......

Here you go it is going west now oh wait no it is going northwest. OH No it is moving northeast better go get my fishing pole and turn it. HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEEHEHEHE.

That make you feel better

[Thunder44]

725
ABNT20 KNHC 061507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA
HAS FORMED ABOUT 360 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY
ORGANIZED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

[WmE]

Also on the danger area graphic now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

[cpdaman]

how will this system (low pressure right now) effect the development of the coastal low expected to form off n.carolina virginia if at all, and could these combine

i mean since the coastal low is blocked to the north it seems that it may want to push more south east or at least drift in that direction, and by later tonite that subtropical low will be up in a position closer to the coastal low, anyone have any thoughts

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come on form little storm. If not then just like 2002, it ends early, can't believe how a weak el nino can do this. Shear is racing through the tropical Atlantic. Wake me when stuff starts forming over the southern Oceans.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20061006 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061006 1800 061007 0600 061007 1800 061008 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.5N 69.4W 34.4N 68.1W 37.9N 66.6W 39.4N 63.5W
BAMM 30.5N 69.4W 33.4N 68.3W 35.9N 67.3W 36.8N 66.4W
A98E 30.5N 69.4W 32.6N 67.8W 35.0N 65.5W 36.3N 63.1W
LBAR 30.5N 69.4W 33.4N 67.7W 36.3N 65.3W 38.1N 61.3W
SHIP 20KTS 29KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 20KTS 29KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061008 1800 061009 1800 061010 1800 061011 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 39.4N 59.6W 38.0N 49.7W 34.2N 39.5W 28.8N 37.8W
BAMM 37.0N 66.2W 39.1N 65.6W 42.9N 56.7W 47.8N 38.9W
A98E 36.8N 60.2W 37.0N 53.3W 37.9N 44.9W 35.2N 38.3W
LBAR 38.5N 55.6W 35.6N 42.1W 36.0N 40.8W 31.0N 49.7W
SHIP 51KTS 56KTS 63KTS 58KTS
DSHP 51KTS 56KTS 63KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 69.4W DIRCUR = 35DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 28.8N LONM12 = 70.8W DIRM12 = 34DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 26.9N LONM24 = 72.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[fci]

I am still going to be disappointed if no one posts that it might turn left or they see a move to the west or northwest......

Here you go it is going west now oh wait no it is going northwest. OH No it is moving northeast better go get my fishing pole and turn it. HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEEHEHEHE.

That make you feel better

Thanks, I needed that!

Now, I feel much better!!!! !!!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

I think it's moving southwest.

[storms in NC]

Thanks, I needed that!

Now, I feel much better!!!! !!!!!

Glad it made you feel better.