Tropical Depression Norman in EPAC

[WmE]

And another invest in the Epac. Seems like the EPac is getting active again



A SECOND BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...HOWEVER
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

935
WHXX01 KMIA 071537
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (EP902006) ON 20061007  1200 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061007  1200   061008  0000   061008  1200   061009  0000
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD     9.9N 112.7W   10.4N 114.7W   11.0N 116.7W   12.1N 118.3W
  BAMM     9.9N 112.7W   10.5N 114.4W   11.1N 116.2W   12.2N 118.1W
  LBAR     9.9N 112.7W   10.6N 114.9W   11.6N 117.2W   13.3N 119.3W
  SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          36KTS          45KTS
  DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          36KTS          45KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061009  1200   061010  1200   061011  1200   061012  1200
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.3N 119.6W   17.0N 121.0W   21.4N 118.3W   27.1N 108.4W
  BAMM    13.5N 119.9W   16.7N 123.0W   20.6N 124.0W   25.8N 116.9W
  LBAR    15.0N 120.9W   19.7N 120.0W   21.7N 114.6W   22.4N 111.1W
  SHIP        54KTS          63KTS          51KTS          23KTS
  DSHP        54KTS          63KTS          51KTS          23KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =   9.9N LONCUR = 112.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
  LATM12 =   9.7N LONM12 = 109.8W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
  LATM24 =   9.6N LONM24 = 106.7W
  WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =    0NM WNDM12 =   20KT
  CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  140NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$

[AnnularCane]

I wonder if this means the Atlantic will be next.

[cycloneye]

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LIMITED. HOWEVER... UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

4:00 PM PDT TWO.

[Chacor]

4:00 TWO:
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 930 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert:
WTPN21 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/080951ZOCT2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 114.1W TO 12.8N 118.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.3N 114.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 10.4N 114.8W, APPROXIMATELY
780 NM SOUTH-SOUTH WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
080737Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE DISTURBANCE IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 091000Z.//

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

748
WHXX01 KMIA 081235
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (EP902006) ON 20061008  1200 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061008  1200   061009  0000   061009  1200   061010  0000
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.2N 116.5W   13.4N 117.4W   14.9N 117.4W   16.7N 116.6W
  BAMM    12.2N 116.5W   13.2N 117.5W   14.5N 118.3W   16.0N 118.5W
  LBAR    12.2N 116.5W   13.7N 117.7W   15.8N 118.4W   18.2N 118.1W
  SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          41KTS          46KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          41KTS          46KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061010  1200   061011  1200   061012  1200   061013  1200
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    18.3N 115.4W   21.8N 112.1W   25.1N 105.5W   26.5N  95.1W
  BAMM    17.3N 118.3W   20.5N 117.4W   25.3N 114.5W   29.8N 110.9W
  LBAR    20.4N 116.5W   25.1N 110.2W   29.6N  98.6W     .0N    .0W
  SHIP        49KTS          38KTS           0KTS           0KTS
  DSHP        49KTS          38KTS           0KTS           0KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  12.2N LONCUR = 116.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
  LATM12 =  10.3N LONM12 = 114.7W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
  LATM24 =   9.9N LONM24 = 112.7W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$

[RattleMan]

Now labeled as TD15-E on NRL.

[Chacor]

WTPZ45 KNHC 090333
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
900 PM PDT SUN OCT 08 2006

Now 15-E officially. Track has it making landfall on Baja as a TD.

[P.K.]

WTPZ45 KNHC 090855
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
200 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006

A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
UNTIL VERY RECENTLY THE COLDEST TOPS WERE LESS THAN -80 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06 UTC WERE 30-35 KT.
SINCE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BEEN ON A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE DEPRESSION
FELL SQUARELY WITHIN THE GAP BETWEEN QUIKSCAT SWATHS AT ABOUT 01
UTC AND 03 UTC...SO THERE IS NO WIND DATA FROM ANYWHERE NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A
FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE UNDERLYING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 28C TO
ABOUT 26C DURING THAT SAME PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND SHOWS A PEAK AT 40
KT...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE NEARING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...335/8. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
A RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE
RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT
TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AFTER IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD...
IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE TOO QUICKLY. IN FACT...THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.3N 117.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 16.3N 118.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.6N 118.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 19.6N 117.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 21.0N 115.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[P.K.]

Models say 35kts, 1002hPa.

WHXX01 KMIA 091257
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN (EP152006) ON 20061009 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061009 1200 061010 0000 061010 1200 061011 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 117.6W 17.3N 117.2W 19.2N 116.0W 21.2N 114.1W
BAMM 15.5N 117.6W 17.2N 117.8W 18.6N 117.4W 19.9N 116.7W
LBAR 15.5N 117.6W 17.1N 117.3W 19.3N 116.2W 21.9N 114.4W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 42KTS 42KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 42KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061011 1200 061012 1200 061013 1200 061014 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.2N 111.6W 26.7N 102.5W 26.2N 86.7W 25.6N 71.7W
BAMM 21.3N 116.1W 26.1N 113.4W 31.4N 110.4W 34.5N 103.9W
LBAR 24.8N 111.4W 30.0N 100.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 38KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 117.6W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 117.2W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 116.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM

$$

[cycloneye]

708
WTPZ45 KNHC 091443
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
800 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006

DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF A NICELY
CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS
EXISTS AMONG THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH AT 12Z WERE
55...45...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. THE
UW/CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CI ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT RECENT
RAW NUMBERS ARE HIGHER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND
OF THESE ESTIMATES. WE WILL SEE WHETHER THE BANDED STRUCTURE
PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS DUE SHORTLY
SHOULD SHED MORE LIGHT ON HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE IS. THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE NORMAN IS STILL OVER WARM WATER AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
APPARENT STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND WELL ABOVE THE
GFDL. REGARDLESS OF WHAT NORMAN DOES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AFTER THAT SHOULD BE QUITE HOSTILE AND
INDUCE WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6. NORMAN IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE
GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET TURNING NORMAN SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS TAKE NORMAN OFF
SMARTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS THAT LIE AHEAD
OF NORMAN...I BELIEVE THE LATTER SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 15.8N 117.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 18.2N 117.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 13/1200Z 21.5N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

It's now Tropical Storm Norman.

[Sanibel]

You can see the tropics are all messed up with that track hooking into Baja from the southwest.

[HURAKAN]

You can see the tropics are all messed up with that track hooking into Baja from the southwest.

That's normal for October in the EPAC. Remember that at this time troughs are moving southward and allowing tropical cyclones in the EPAC to hook NEward. Especially for a cyclone like Norman that formed far north.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 092037
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006

RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES FROM BOTH TRMM AND SSMI-S INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ANY
EVENT...NORMAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS
MORNING AND DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH SLIGHT BANDING
FEATURES. 1800 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 55 KT FROM
TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA. HOWEVER...A 1350 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT REVEAL ANY VECTORS OVER 35 KT AND AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. NORMAN IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...BUT IN A GRADUALLY INCREASING
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN THREE
OR SO DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB
TO THE INCREASING SHEAR. THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6. NORMAN CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF
RIDGE AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THERE IS A DICHOTOMY IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FOLLOW THE ABOVE REASONING AND TAKE
NORMAN TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS MODELS ALL TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST...EAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH. THE LATTER SCENARIO
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE GFDL...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.2N 117.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 16.9N 118.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.7N 118.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 18.6N 117.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 117.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 21.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 13/1800Z 22.5N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

113
WTPZ45 KNHC 100230
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
800 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006

NORMAN HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A BURSTING TYPE CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING
THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LASTEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY ALONG
WITH AN EXPERIMENTAL OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE DUE TO THE CURRENT LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN.
NORMAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN IS LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AND NORMAN IS
FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. THIS SEEMINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING WITH NORMAN
EXPECTED TO BECOME A DISSIPATING REMNANT LOW NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORMAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...RESULTING IN A
GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION OR 360/05. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE A LITTLE AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE STEERING APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD...TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPREAD A BIT MOST LIKELY DUE TO VARYING
FORECAST STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NOGAPS...
UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFDN MODELS ALL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE QUICKLY
RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BEYOND 36 HOURS.
CONVERSELY... THE ECMWF...GFDL...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
MAINTAIN A MORE VERTICALLY COHERENT VORTEX AND SHOW THE CYCLONE
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ASSUMES NORMAN WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE TO BE CAUGHT IN THE DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY
FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ITS NORTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 16.9N 117.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 17.6N 117.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 18.6N 117.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 19.9N 116.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 20.8N 115.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 22.5N 113.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[P.K.]

WTPZ45 KNHC 100900
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006

NORMAN HAS SUSTAINED SOME DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE.
SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY AND AN SSMI OVERPASS AT 0400 UTC SUGGEST THE
CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH THE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
BECOME DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 55 KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER
ESTIMATE BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0230 UTC THAT DID NOT REVEAL
ANY WINDS GREATER THAN 45 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT BEYOND
ABOUT 12 HOURS THE SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORMAN WILL ALSO PASS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
SSTS BEYOND 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT
THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND ANTICIPATES WEAKENING
BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE...AND FOLLOWS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY.

NORMAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...TEMPORARILY
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE FAR WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
MEXICO...AND SOUTH OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD OVER BAJA. A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS AND
THE SSMI OVERPASS AT 0400 UTC HELPED VERIFY THAT NORMAN HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS ONLY 360/2. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SLOWDOWN IS TEMPORARY AND FORECAST A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH NORMAN WILL
TRAVEL AND HOW FAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 16.5N 117.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 17.5N 117.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.4N 116.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 115.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 19.9N 114.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/WILLIS

[HURAKAN]

Norman is no more!!!

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 102034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS DEPICT AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN WITH UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 30
KT NOW DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...WHICH HEDGES
CLOSELY TOWARD THE SHIPS...INDICATING FURTHER WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 3.
HOWEVER...DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM DOES
NOT GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER.

INITIAL MOTION IS A DRIFT EASTWARD...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW PROVIDED BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH REFLECT A WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM MOVING
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 16.5N 117.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 17.1N 117.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 11/1800Z 17.8N 116.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 12/0600Z 18.2N 115.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/1800Z 18.5N 114.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued by JTWC on the system that merged with ex-Norman and is currently merging with Olivia.

WTPN21 PHNC 140800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/140752ZOCT2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 109.5W TO 16.0N 103.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 140630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8N 108.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE REMNANTS OF TD 15E (NORMAN) ARE NOW LOCATED NEAR
14.8N 108.6W, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO,
MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 140257Z SSMI IMAGE REVEAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS WITH WEAK BANDING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITHIN AN AREA OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SERVE
TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 150800Z.//

[Coredesat]

Code: Select all

660
WHXX01 KMIA 150733
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION     NORMAN (EP152006) ON 20061015  0600 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061015  0600   061015  1800   061016  0600   061016  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.9N 105.0W   19.4N 104.7W   22.0N 103.5W   25.6N 100.0W
  BAMM    17.9N 105.0W   19.3N 104.4W   21.7N 103.2W   25.2N 100.4W
  LBAR    17.9N 105.0W   19.7N 103.7W   22.6N 102.4W   26.4N 100.0W
  SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          42KTS          44KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          28KTS          27KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061017  0600   061018  0600   061019  0600   061020  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    28.8N  94.3W   29.8N  82.7W   23.7N  79.9W   18.6N  83.7W
  BAMM    28.3N  95.6W   30.4N  84.5W   26.2N  80.4W   21.7N  82.7W
  LBAR    30.2N  94.9W   33.4N  81.2W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
  SHIP        44KTS          33KTS          17KTS           0KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          24KTS          26KTS           0KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  17.9N LONCUR = 105.0W DIRCUR =  45DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
  LATM12 =  16.8N LONM12 = 106.5W DIRM12 =  59DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
  LATM24 =  15.8N LONM24 = 108.4W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM