End-of-Season Storm Total Guesses

[Frank2]

Since it appears that we are at the end of the season - glad I stood my ground with that 9/3/1 guess - perhaps someone could look it up to see when it was posted (I don't remember)...



It just seemed right, since the El Nino shear was very evident from the time that Chris dissipated and Ernesto weakened, so...

Did anyone else have a similar guess?

Have a good winter, folks (I hear that Buffalo, New York has received a record 2 feet of snow since yesterday)...

Frank

[hurricanetrack]

Well, at least he said "guess". I would find it quite incredible that people on this message board could see that the season was not going to live up to its advertised potential while PhDs and others in the government had not a single clue.

I seriously think that the pre-season predictions are of little value to the average joe. Look at how bad they were LAST season. We ended up with 28 named storms and there was NO indication of that in late May of 2005.

Late May 2006- 17 named storms from CSU and 13-15 from NOAA. Even as late as August 4 or whatever, the numbers looked fairly high.

My point is that the seasonal forecast game can fail- we know that. Perhaps it would be more helpful to look at what the meat of the season might hold say from August 15 to October 15. By then we should seriously know whether or not there will be an El Nino. We would also know to some extent how dry things are over the Sahel and how much dust output to expect during prime time.

Think about this- we have been told that the June/July activity usually has no bearing on what the "real" hurricane season produces. So why waste time with June/July numbers. When the Basin is primed by the end of August, what can we expect? That would be quite helpful as this December, April, June info can be WAY off. I have no easy answers. I do not forecast and would never even try. I think this season was a great example of how little is really known about long range forecasting. Or maybe not, perhaps there are some on this board who have it all figured out. Afterall, Frank cites his own 9/3/1 which was pretty close to the mark. Maybe he knows something that we and they don't. Maybe it was a lucky guess.

The weather can be tough- even the weather itself is anything but. We'll see what happens next year. Might we go two calendar years with no US hurricanes? We'll know in a year.

[gatorcane]

Frank you were the closest I think out of everybody. This is a learning lesson for us all. When you have a season of hyperactivity like 1933 and 2005, you should put money on the following season being slower than normal. That is exactly what happened here.

[vbhoutex]

Frank you were the closest I think out of everybody. This is a learning lesson for us all. When you have a season of hyperactivity like 1933 and 2005, you should put money on the following season being slower than normal. That is exactly what happened here.

It may be what happened, but that sure isn't a given. Last year was an INCREDIBLE ANAMOLY and would be thrown out if we were averaging statistics normally. Early in the year the factors were indeed pointing towards a more active than normal season. The patterns changed and/or didin't develop and almost everyone except Frank and a few others were fooled by Mother Nature-me included.

[gatorcane]

Frank you were the closest I think out of everybody. This is a learning lesson for us all. When you have a season of hyperactivity like 1933 and 2005, you should put money on the following season being slower than normal. That is exactly what happened here.

It may be what happened, but that sure isn't a given. Last year was an INCREDIBLE ANAMOLY and would be thrown out if we were averaging statistics normally. Early in the year the factors were indeed pointing towards a more active than normal season. The patterns changed and/or didin't develop and almost everyone except Frank and a few others were fooled by Mother Nature-me included.

I was fooled big time.

[hurricanetrack]

Has there been a report yet either from CSU or NOAA as to EXACTLY why the season was nothing like they were thinking early on?

I know El Nino gets blamed, but this El Nino is a puppy compared to the one of 1997 and in the early 80s. The SAL outbreaks did not help either- and there was an enormous amount of subsidence apparently. So perhaps I answered my own question, and if so, and those were the reasons, then why were they so hard to detect?

Accuweather blew it too- for the most part. So everyone sank with the ship this time around- except Frank! But at least the Gulf Coast had a whole year to get things moving in the right direction. Though that one set of Ernesto forecasts near the end of August was enough to make more than a few people nervous, I am sure.

[wxmann_91]

There were few who guessed that this year would be quiet but for those who did they deserve some serious kudos.

ULL's and major subsidence, in the form of unfavorable MJO alignment, along with a stronger Bermuda High, probably doomed this season.

[gilbert88]

The season ends in November 30th. Someone should lock this thread.

[gatorcane]

gilbert the only thing that is locked here is the Atlantic from having any more storms - it's over man.

[hurricanetrack]

I would have to agree at this point. Hard to see anything getting going- not saying never or not, but not looking good.

[wxmann_91]

gilbert the only thing that is locked here is the Atlantic from having any more storms - it's over man.

Weren't you the one thinking there would be a major hurricane striking FL from the Caribbean?

[Jim Cantore]

gilbert the only thing that is locked here is the Atlantic from having any more storms - it's over man.

Weren't you the one thinking there would be a major hurricane striking FL from the Caribbean?

[MWatkins]

Although interestingly enough, this prediction at first glance looks like a good one, and apparently looks far better than the CSU outlook from August. However, after further review, climatology is the real winner this year.

Rather than focus on the low numbers, which is easy to do, let's verify this out agains the CSU outlook posted August 1st.

All forecasts/guesses should be compared to a standard to determine relative skill. The standard, in tropical meteorology, is climatology. In other words...taking the average season and using that as a baseline, a forecast is considered skillful if it can improve against the seasonal averages. If it is worse, then it is considered not to be helpful. This is also why CLIPER is still run...it is used as a basis for skill comparison.

So lets start there. If the season were to end today...how would climatology fare vs CSU and Frank2?

Climatology

Predicted Named Storms/Actual/Error: 10.1/9.0/+12%
Predicted Hurricanes: 5.9/5.0/+18%
Predicted Intense Hurricanes: 2.5/2.0/+25%

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pastprofileAT.gif

Note: Climatology is as close as it can get to Intense Hurricanes, since there is no such thing as 1/2 of an intense hurricane.


CSU August 1 Update

Predicted Named Storms/Actual/Error: 15/9/+67%
Predicted Hurricanes: 7.0/5.0/+40%
Predicted Intense Hurricanes: 3.0/2.0/+50%

Source: http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/fore ... 6/aug2006/

Frank2

Predicted Named Storms/Actual/Error: 9/9/0%
Predicted Hurricanes: 3.0/5.0/-40%
Predicted Intense Hurricanes: 1.0/2.0/-50%

Source: This post.

So, if the season were to end today, Frank2 would win the battle of named systems.

However, climatology gets the most important 2 categories. Hurricanes and Intense Hurricanes, because the absolute error between CSU and Frank2 is the same. In the scheme of verification...it makes no difference if the error is positive or negaitve...intensity error rate is calculated by taking the difference between the expected and actual verified number. By this stanadard...the CSU outlook and Frank2 tie for H/IH.

It is also interesting to note that if the season is able to produce just one more named storm, climatology would sweep all three categories and be the 2006 forecast champion.

So if there is anything this season has taught us...it is that climatology still wins sometimes. By all measures this has been an average season so far...almost as average as it can possibly be.

MW

Disclaimer: This is an objective analysis of various forecasts vs. climatology of the hurricane season ended today. All conclusions/calculations are open to review. This was made as personal, scientific observations are not the opinion of Storm2K...it's moderators or anyone else other than good old MWatkins. Use at your own risk...all rights reserved. No portion of this broadcast may be retransmitted without the express written consent of Major League Baseball.

[wxmann_91]

Disclaimer: This is an objective analysis of various forecasts vs. climatology of the hurricane season ended today. All conclusions/calculations are open to review. This was made as personal, scientific observations are not the opinion of Storm2K...it's moderators or anyone else other than good old MWatkins. Use at your own risk...all rights reserved. No portion of this broadcast may be retransmitted without the express written consent of Major League Baseball.

You're right MWatkins... this season has followed Climo to the teeth.

[Deputy Van Halen]

Suddenly, anyone who isn't convinced that the season is over, "doesn't get it", is clueless and probably a laughingstock around here.

Being eternally suspicious of groupthink, I have a feeling we will see Joyce soon. Probably not Kirk, though.

[gatorcane]

I think Joyce may show up in the W. GOM by the end of this weekend or early next week. Check out the latest IR:

[Chacor]

I think Joyce may show up in the W. GOM by the end of this weekend or early next week. Check out the latest IR:

The latest IR is ":eek:"?

[gatorcane]

I think Joyce may show up in the W. GOM by the end of this weekend or early next week. Check out the latest IR:

The latest IR is ":eek:"?

Yep the eek face may look like Joyce

as in "am I supposed to have shown up everybody says season cancel!!"

[AnnularCane]

I think Joyce may show up in the W. GOM by the end of this weekend or early next week. Check out the latest IR:

The latest IR is ":eek:"?

Yep the eek face may look like Joyce

as in "am I supposed to have shown up everybody says season cancel!!"

That is how Joyce will look after she sees the looks on the faces of everybody who was applauding the season being over.

[Frank2]

Thanks to all for their posts, and to mwatkins for that good analysis, though, as gatorcane said, just when we (I) gave up on the season (that Buffalo blizzard probably had something to do with it), there is something in the southwestern Gulf that might be an issue.

It's funny, but, back on Thursday, I was going to post a "Watch the Isthmus" post (concerning the possibility of something moving into the southwestern Gulf from the Pacific), but, after seeing that disturbance move northwestward along the Mexican coastline on Wednesday or Thursday afternoon, I decided not to - I probably should have posted it...

As Dr. Forbes (TWC) said last night - the Buffalo blizzard was extremely rare for this time of year (imagine, 2 feet of snow, with almost every tree still full of summer leaves, which also helped to create the massive power outages), so, we can never out guess the weather - or the One who's hand is on the spigot...

Frank

P.S. As for that 9/3/1 guess - I just took a lesson from those old-timers at the NHC - they always said to never forget that every season is different from the next....