WOPZ41 KNHC 191214
DSAEP
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 AM PDT THU OCT 19 2006
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE MEXICAN RIVIERA...
A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...OR ABOUT 260 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO...IS MOVING WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS ACTIVITY
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922006) ON 20061019 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061019 1200 061020 0000 061020 1200 061021 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 96.6W 15.3N 99.7W 15.7N 102.5W 16.3N 105.2W
BAMM 14.9N 96.6W 15.3N 99.4W 15.3N 102.0W 15.5N 104.9W
LBAR 14.9N 96.6W 15.6N 99.8W 16.4N 102.5W 17.4N 104.9W
SHIP 25KTS 38KTS 51KTS 62KTS
DSHP 25KTS 38KTS 51KTS 62KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061021 1200 061022 1200 061023 1200 061024 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 107.7W 18.7N 111.7W 22.0N 113.7W 29.3N 108.5W
BAMM 15.9N 107.6W 16.2N 112.3W 16.5N 115.9W 17.3N 115.9W
LBAR 18.2N 107.0W 20.5N 110.1W 23.6N 110.7W 27.0N 107.2W
SHIP 73KTS 80KTS 73KTS 66KTS
DSHP 73KTS 80KTS 73KTS 66KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 96.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 92.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 88.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Tropical Depression Paul Makes Landfall in Mainland Mexico
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cycloneye
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Tropical Depression Paul Makes Landfall in Mainland Mexico
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Oct 25, 2006 7:34 pm, edited 26 times in total.
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HURAKAN
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19/1745 UTC 13.6N 97.7W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific Ocean
Looking better than ever. "Paul" will be the next name in case it develops.
Interesting enough, Paul is Pablo in Spanish.
The EPAC has Paul, we have Pable. Also, they have John, we had "Juan," and we had Ivan, which is Russian for Juan and/or John. They have Mary, we have María. They have Emilia, we have Emily. They have Andrés, we had Andrew. You may think of more!!!
Looking better than ever. "Paul" will be the next name in case it develops.
Interesting enough, Paul is Pablo in Spanish.
The EPAC has Paul, we have Pable. Also, they have John, we had "Juan," and we had Ivan, which is Russian for Juan and/or John. They have Mary, we have María. They have Emilia, we have Emily. They have Andrés, we had Andrew. You may think of more!!!
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cycloneye
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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192221
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT THU OCT 19 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
ABPZ20 KNHC 192221
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT THU OCT 19 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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AnnularCane
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- Location: Wytheville, VA
HURAKAN wrote:The EPAC has Paul, we have Pable. Also, they have John, we had "Juan," and we had Ivan, which is Russian for Juan and/or John. They have Mary, we have María. They have Emilia, we have Emily. They have Andrés, we had Andrew. You may think of more!!!
How about Fabian and Fabio? Rose and Rosa?
He's looking good!
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cycloneye
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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201608
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI OCT 20 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Definitly it looks better than in the past 24 hours.
ABPZ20 KNHC 201608
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI OCT 20 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Definitly it looks better than in the past 24 hours.
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Andrew92
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- Posts: 3247
- Age: 41
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
AnnularCane wrote:HURAKAN wrote:The EPAC has Paul, we have Pable. Also, they have John, we had "Juan," and we had Ivan, which is Russian for Juan and/or John. They have Mary, we have María. They have Emilia, we have Emily. They have Andrés, we had Andrew. You may think of more!!!
How about Fabian and Fabio? Rose and Rosa?
He's looking good!
Frank and Franklin
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 146115
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201951Z OCT 06//
WTPN21 PGTW 202000
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 102.5W TO 16.4N 107.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 102.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 212000Z.//
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html
WTPN21 PGTW 202000
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 102.5W TO 16.4N 107.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 102.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 212000Z.//
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html
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cycloneye
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ABPZ20 KNHC 202216
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI OCT 20 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI OCT 20 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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TheEuropean
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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cycloneye
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210853
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH NEARBY
SHIP REPORTS...INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 230
NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ORGANIZED INTO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. IN ADDITION...AT 21/0600Z SHIP A8HR7 IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT REPORTED 27 KT WINDS...WHILE SHIP SFMN LOCATED ABOUT 45
NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A WEST WIND OF 25 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 KT. TD-17E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MASSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY 48-72 HOURS...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST
BY 96 HOURS. A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY
PURPOSES DUE TO POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS POSITION IS AN
ESTIMATE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WELL BEHIND NEAR THE MEXICAN
COAST DUE TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS ENHANCING THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS BY DAY 5...AND PERHAPS BEYOND.
THE DEPRESSION POSSESSES A SMALL TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AN
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...EASTERLY MID-LEVEL
SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS TILTING THE
VORTEX TOWARD THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THAT TIME. AFTERWARD...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL 96 HOURS WHEN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 15.5N 105.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 15.4N 107.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 15.1N 108.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 15.2N 109.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 110.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 103.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTPZ42 KNHC 210853
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH NEARBY
SHIP REPORTS...INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 230
NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ORGANIZED INTO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. IN ADDITION...AT 21/0600Z SHIP A8HR7 IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT REPORTED 27 KT WINDS...WHILE SHIP SFMN LOCATED ABOUT 45
NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A WEST WIND OF 25 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 KT. TD-17E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MASSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY 48-72 HOURS...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST
BY 96 HOURS. A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY
PURPOSES DUE TO POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS POSITION IS AN
ESTIMATE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WELL BEHIND NEAR THE MEXICAN
COAST DUE TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS ENHANCING THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS BY DAY 5...AND PERHAPS BEYOND.
THE DEPRESSION POSSESSES A SMALL TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AN
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...EASTERLY MID-LEVEL
SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS TILTING THE
VORTEX TOWARD THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THAT TIME. AFTERWARD...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL 96 HOURS WHEN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 15.5N 105.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 15.4N 107.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 15.1N 108.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 15.2N 109.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 110.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 103.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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21/1200 UTC 15.7N 107.1W T2.5/2.5 17E -- East Pacific Ocean
Looks like we will have Tropical Storm Paul in the next advisory.But as always,until the official advisory about Paul comes out the title of the thread will remain as it is now.
Looks like we will have Tropical Storm Paul in the next advisory.But as always,until the official advisory about Paul comes out the title of the thread will remain as it is now.
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 211432
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND ATTACHED TO AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CENTER
IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY
SHIP SFMN WHICH REPORTED 33 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002.8
MB LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PAUL AT THIS TIME. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
BE LOW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. PAUL
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BUT NOT AS INTENSE AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL. ON THE OTHER HAND...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT DOING MUCH
IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITH PAUL.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270/8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND
TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...A
RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE...FORCING PAUL TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING PAUL NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. RELIABLE MODELS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF PAUL
WELL INLAND OVER MEXICO BY DAY FIVE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 16.0N 106.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.1N 108.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 16.2N 109.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ42 KNHC 211432
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND ATTACHED TO AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CENTER
IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY
SHIP SFMN WHICH REPORTED 33 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002.8
MB LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PAUL AT THIS TIME. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
BE LOW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. PAUL
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BUT NOT AS INTENSE AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL. ON THE OTHER HAND...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT DOING MUCH
IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITH PAUL.
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270/8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND
TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...A
RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE...FORCING PAUL TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING PAUL NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. RELIABLE MODELS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF PAUL
WELL INLAND OVER MEXICO BY DAY FIVE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 16.0N 106.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.1N 108.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 16.2N 109.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TROPICAL STORM PAUL (EP172006) ON 20061021 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061021 1800 061022 0600 061022 1800 061023 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 107.1W 16.6N 108.9W 17.4N 110.4W 18.8N 111.4W
BAMM 16.0N 107.1W 16.4N 108.7W 16.9N 110.3W 17.9N 111.6W
LBAR 16.0N 107.1W 16.4N 108.5W 17.2N 110.1W 18.3N 111.4W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 55KTS 61KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 55KTS 61KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061023 1800 061024 1800 061025 1800 061026 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.2N 111.4W 29.8N 107.0W 36.0N 91.9W 33.3N 70.8W
BAMM 19.6N 112.2W 26.3N 109.7W 32.7N 100.4W 36.9N 83.2W
LBAR 19.7N 112.1W 25.5N 111.1W 34.2N 101.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 65KTS 68KTS 57KTS 19KTS
DSHP 65KTS 68KTS 37KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 107.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 105.4W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 103.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM
18:00z models increase the intensity to 45kts.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061021 1800 061022 0600 061022 1800 061023 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 107.1W 16.6N 108.9W 17.4N 110.4W 18.8N 111.4W
BAMM 16.0N 107.1W 16.4N 108.7W 16.9N 110.3W 17.9N 111.6W
LBAR 16.0N 107.1W 16.4N 108.5W 17.2N 110.1W 18.3N 111.4W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 55KTS 61KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 55KTS 61KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061023 1800 061024 1800 061025 1800 061026 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.2N 111.4W 29.8N 107.0W 36.0N 91.9W 33.3N 70.8W
BAMM 19.6N 112.2W 26.3N 109.7W 32.7N 100.4W 36.9N 83.2W
LBAR 19.7N 112.1W 25.5N 111.1W 34.2N 101.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 65KTS 68KTS 57KTS 19KTS
DSHP 65KTS 68KTS 37KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 107.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 105.4W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 103.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM
18:00z models increase the intensity to 45kts.
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Weatherfreak000
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This reminds of Kenna from 2002!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day
Of course the comparison goes to a Cat 5
Well I suppose this will probably be the last storm of the EPAC season, and the ATL is seemingly done with. Gonna be a while before some good action anywhere in the tropics it appears.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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359
WTPZ42 KNHC 212030
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006
PAUL IS CURRENTLY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED IT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
TO 45 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
RELIABLE GFDL MODEL MAKES PAUL A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 104 KNOTS
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALSO RELIABLE...
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS PAUL
INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MEETS HALFWAY AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING BUT ONLY TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE AND TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD
IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THEREAFTER...PAUL SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MAINLAND MEXICO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A FEW
MODELS ONLY...SINCE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION
MUCH EARLIER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.1N 107.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 16.2N 108.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.6N 109.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 110.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 111.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 109.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.0N 105.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ42 KNHC 212030
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006
PAUL IS CURRENTLY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED IT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
TO 45 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
RELIABLE GFDL MODEL MAKES PAUL A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 104 KNOTS
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALSO RELIABLE...
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS PAUL
INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MEETS HALFWAY AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING BUT ONLY TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE AND TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD
IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THEREAFTER...PAUL SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MAINLAND MEXICO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A FEW
MODELS ONLY...SINCE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION
MUCH EARLIER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.1N 107.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 16.2N 108.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.6N 109.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 110.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 111.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 109.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.0N 105.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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