Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

[Steve H.]

Look quick before it evaporates! Check out the area of disturbed weather East/southeast of the Windwards. Don't know if any models pick it up (doubt it), but looks to be the most impressive area this whole month. At least it looks that way for now. Let's see how long it takes the shear to kill it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Look Like a Depression is about to form in that area...

[TheEuropean]

Here is a satellite image (13:15 UTC):



Looks impressive for this time of the year and I will watch it, but don't expect much development.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Surely looks pretty good for this time of the year, but also look at that pronounced cold front north of the Caribbean!

[wxman57]

It looks quite impressive this morning. I would place the area of concern near 12N/48W. A long WV loop reveals moderate shear 24 hours ago has given way to a ridge aloft. Convection was originally enhanced by a weak upper low, but that low is gone. The key to whether or not it develops is if that convection can remain as organized as it is now for another 24 hours. If it does, then we could have a depression/storm on our hands. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not given an invest number this afternoon if it doesn’t weaken by then.

As for a possible track, it may well move NNW then N right up the front to its northweset. Slight chance it may miss the front and track west.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

That deep Trough over the Western Atlantic/Eastern North America isn't going anywhere, at least not over the course of the next 5 days. If anything it is going to get even deeper this weekend/early next week. If the wave is to survive, it will have to be a low tracker, and thus a Central American threat.

[abajan]

The latest TWO still mentions it. Perhaps it bears watching.

[SouthFloridawx]

That deep Trough over the Western Atlantic/Eastern North America isn't going anywhere, at least not over the course of the next 5 days. If anything it is going to get even deeper this weekend/early next week. If the wave is to survive, it will have to be a low tracker, and thus a Central American threat.

Looking at the GFS, I don't think the trough that your talking about is going to be hanging out that long. This one will pull out leaving a residual stalled front and a new trough will dip down towards the weekend.

Being that this front has made it the farthest thus far this year... I think we'll see it linger and possibly spark some more convection with this or even possibly a new area in the next few days.

Here we see the trough that hybridstorm is speaking about currently...

18Z GFS 00 Hours


18Z GFS 24 Hours
We see the trough axis starting to pull out.


18Z GFS 72 Hours
We see the old trough almost out of the Northern Central Atlantic and a new trough dipping down to the east coast. Also we notice a ridge building in the wake of the Trough pulling out.

[cycloneye]

[b]AN ENERGETIC AND MOIST TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 47-48W THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASSOCIATED JET FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR POTENTIAL DEEP CONVECTION AND
VERY SQUALLY WEATHER...LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY NOON OR SO.

[/b

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

Above is a part from the Area Forecast Discussion of San Juan that talks about this wave and what effects it will have in the NE Caribbean this weekend.

[OURAGAN]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY
WITH A LARGE ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND APPARENT IN SFC OBSERVATIONS. A 1011 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NOT EASILY IDENTIFIABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGES.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS S OF 16N. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY BENEATH AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE WHICH LIKELY ALLOWED THIS FEATURE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

[Anthonyl]

According to Abajan I would watch this area very closely as persistent flareups continue along the wave axis. I could recall Debby in 95 which sneaked into the Winwards exhibiting the same kind of behaviour and temporarly blew up over St.Lucia and the Central islands dealing tremendously structural damage to these islands from flooding.

[wxman57]

I can see a well-developed MLC (at least) near 12.8N/53W at noon today. Convection is on the increase. Upper ridge is building over the disturbance. Can't understand why it's not an "invest" yet. Looks as promising as most invests this season, perhaps more so.

[Steve H.]

Me neither. Perhaps they don't want to go to the bother of running models and other cost drivers in hopes it will go away

[gatorcane]

I don't see any major cold fronts dropping down over the eastern CONUS until maybe 7-10 days from now - could get very interesting...

[gatorcane]

wow this area looks very impressive - there is a nice rotation to it....why no invest is beyond me???!!?

[cycloneye]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
49W AND 56W.

The above from the 2:05 PM discussion.

[JonathanBelles]

wow this area looks very impressive - there is a nice rotation to it....why no invest is beyond me???!!?

they've gone to sleep.

[wxman57]

Convection is a bit sparse around the MLC, but looks good:

[Damar91]

Wouldn't that be something after all this boring season had to offer that a storm would have an effect on things this late in the season.