Ticking down to one month left

[Jim Cantore]

Well we're drawing close until one month until the end of the season, and I can only say two words.

THANK GOD!

Sure, some may be dissapointed, but if we got the season that was predicted, I don't want to even think about what state we'd be in. Think about it, in 2003-2005 we've seen almost every kind of Hurricane you DON'T want to see.

Claudette: Caught some off guard, a nasty little category 1 Hurricane.

Fabian: I believe the worst Hurricane to hit Bermuda in at least 50 years.

Isabel: Strange tracked storm, almost a doomsday disaster. Pounded several major cities with a minor surge and 40-70mph winds.

Juan: From what I read, by far Nova Scotia's worst.

Alex: A minor insult to injury to at the time, an already wounded Outer Banks.

Bonnie: Even the weakest storms can kill.

Charley: Andrew typed storm, small and quick but with catestrophic results. Ironically, made landfall in the same state (Florida) as Bonnie, only roughly 30 hours after Bonnies landfall.

Frances: One of the worst kind of storms, large and slow. Thank god it weakened.

Gaston: Inland flooding is a killer.

Hermine: The best kind of landfalling storm, the one you don't even notice.

Ivan: THE worst kind of storm, large and into a surge prone area.

Jeanne: One of a kind, what are the odds of two storms making landfall in basically the same spot three weeks apart?

Arlene: Again, it doesn't take a powerful storm to cause damage, especially in a already battered area.

Cindy: Mainly a stage setter, and a preview of what was to come for the New Orleans area.

Dennis: July? Have we ever seen a storm like this in July, it was one of a kind almost, until Emily a week later.

Emily: When you have storms like these in July, it can't be a good sign, A category 5 in July for the first time.

Katrina: Doomsday storm, Perfect storm, call her what you will, by FAR the worst Hurricane to hit the U.S in over a century, if even that. Argueably the worst natural disaster in U.S history. Whatever could go wrong did, a massive Hurricane into one of the most surge prone areas in the nation. By the time something did finally go right, it was too late. Category 3, 4, or 5, it wouldn't of mattered at that point. Don't ever forget what happened that monday morning, and never forget those effected.

Ophelia: One of those storms that seems to go out of the way to annoy us.

Rita: Quietly one of the worst Hurricanes in U.S history, like Ivan and Katrina, large and into a very surge prone area, Holly Beach Louisiana resembled Waveland Mississippi after Katrina, as in, nothing left.

Tammy: Even the weakest storms can cause many problems. (Thats right, I'm describing Tammy)

Wilma: Legendary in many aspects. By herself, Wilma set 26 records, most notibly being, most intense atlantic hurricane, andmost rapid deepening in an atlantic hurricane. Wilma was the most the worst Hurricane to hit Mexico since Gilbert, and the most destructive in the nations history. In Florida, Wilma was very simular to Charley and Andrew, but weakened and spread out. Over 6 million lost power and ironically, Wilma sits between the two hurricanes I just compared her to on the costliest U.S hurricanes list.

What we didn't see here, we've seen in the last 11 years

Opal: Hurricanes effects can spread FAR inland.

Fran: Yes, Category 3's still visit the Carolinas.

Danny: Cold fronts can be a pain.

Georges: 7 Landfalls, enough said

Mitch: 9000+ dead, 9000+ missing.

Floyd: Biggest scare since Gloria. One of the standards that all Hurricanes are compared to with freshwater flooding.

Allison: Sits right next to Floyd in several categories, and proves that even Tropical Storms can cause mass havoc.

Lili: Shows how quickly things can change.

----------------------

I don't know about you, but I'm enjoying every quiet moment. Just my two cents.

[GeneratorPower]

Actually, that also means we're just 7 months away from the beginning of the 2007 season.

[Jim Cantore]

Actually, that also means we're just 7 months away from the beginning of the 2007 season.

Shhhhhhhhhh, don't remind us

[Opal storm]

Great post Category 5.Some people may call this season a dud, but IMO this season was more of a blessing especially for those along the Gulf coast and Florida.Finally a year where we could rebuild from previous storms without having to prepare for another one.I remember the frustration that took place here in NW Florida during Dennis.All of our efforts into trying to get our lives back to normal after Ivan were wiped out by Dennis,not even a year after Ivan.I'm happy I went through the whole summer without having to pull the generator out of the shed and board my windows and sit in a mile-long line for gas and seeing Jim Cantore at Pensacola Beach lol!

[boca]

That is a great post and we needed a break although a couple of depressions would of been nice as far as rainfall deficits go.

[Jim Cantore]

I've told this to people too and I think alot of people may agree, this off year couldn't have come at a better time.

Another reason the season isn't a dud, every active period has it's off years, and every inactive period has it's big years.

Examples

The inactive period from 1970-1994, had two quite nasty years in 1979 and 1985.

The active Period from the 40s-60s had off years in 1956 (actually was a La Nina year), 1962, and 1965 (El Nino)

The Active Period from 1995-Now had off years in 1997 (El Nino) and 2006 (El Nino, and other factors)

People need to understand, "Active Period" Doesn't mean you're going to have 15-20 storms a year.

On the other hand, as far as I'm concerned, the active period was from 1995-2002, then we entered what I call the "Hyperactive Period" (2003-2005) And I pray to god that it ends at that, even by next year we won't be able to take another leathal assault like that.

On another note, unless in the unlikely event we see another Kate, I say we throw a big "End of the season" party in the Chatroom on November 30th, To celebrate.. well nothing, thats the point.

[Ptarmigan]

I've told this to people too and I think alot of people may agree, this off year couldn't have come at a better time.

Another reason the season isn't a dud, every active period has it's off years, and every inactive period has it's big years.

Examples

The inactive period from 1970-1994, had two quite nasty years in 1979 and 1985.

The active Period from the 40s-60s had off years in 1956 (actually was a La Nina year), 1962, and 1965 (El Nino)

The Active Period from 1995-Now had off years in 1997 (El Nino) and 2006 (El Nino, and other factors)

People need to understand, "Active Period" Doesn't mean you're going to have 15-20 storms a year.

On the other hand, as far as I'm concerned, the active period was from 1995-2002, then we entered what I call the "Hyperactive Period" (2003-2005) And I pray to god that it ends at that, even by next year we won't be able to take another leathal assault like that.

On another note, unless in the unlikely event we see another Kate, I say we throw a big "End of the season" party in the Chatroom on November 30th, To celebrate.. well nothing, thats the point.

1965 had Hurricane Betsy. 1979 had TS Claudette and Hurricane David and Frederic. 1985 had Hurricane Elena and Juan. I wonder why 1956 was quiet despite a La Nina?

[Jim Cantore]

I said 79 and 85 were active years in inactive periods.

1965, I'm going by the number of storms.

[boca]

Here's what happened in 1956.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1956.asp

[Ptarmigan]

I said 79 and 85 were active years in inactive periods.

1965, I'm going by the number of storms.

I am pointing out notable storms that year. 1979 was not good for Texas. Claudette dumped 43 inches of rain northwest of Alvin. Then a month later, TS Elena came and dumped up to 17 inches of rain in Freeport. Brazoria County was not having a good year in 1979.

[Ptarmigan]

Well we're drawing close until one month until the end of the season, and I can only say two words.

THANK GOD!

Sure, some may be dissapointed, but if we got the season that was predicted, I don't want to even think about what state we'd be in. Think about it, in 2003-2005 we've seen almost every kind of Hurricane you DON'T want to see.

Claudette: Caught some off guard, a nasty little category 1 Hurricane.

Fabian: I believe the worst Hurricane to hit Bermuda in at least 50 years.

Isabel: Strange tracked storm, almost a doomsday disaster. Pounded several major cities with a minor surge and 40-70mph winds.

Juan: From what I read, by far Nova Scotia's worst.

Alex: A minor insult to injury to at the time, an already wounded Outer Banks.

Bonnie: Even the weakest storms can kill.

Charley: Andrew typed storm, small and quick but with catestrophic results. Ironically, made landfall in the same state (Florida) as Bonnie, only roughly 30 hours after Bonnies landfall.

Frances: One of the worst kind of storms, large and slow. Thank god it weakened.

Gaston: Inland flooding is a killer.

Hermine: The best kind of landfalling storm, the one you don't even notice.

Ivan: THE worst kind of storm, large and into a surge prone area.

Jeanne: One of a kind, what are the odds of two storms making landfall in basically the same spot three weeks apart?

Arlene: Again, it doesn't take a powerful storm to cause damage, especially in a already battered area.

Cindy: Mainly a stage setter, and a preview of what was to come for the New Orleans area.

Dennis: July? Have we ever seen a storm like this in July, it was one of a kind almost, until Emily a week later.

Emily: When you have storms like these in July, it can't be a good sign, A category 5 in July for the first time.

Katrina: Doomsday storm, Perfect storm, call her what you will, by FAR the worst Hurricane to hit the U.S in over a century, if even that. Argueably the worst natural disaster in U.S history. Whatever could go wrong did, a massive Hurricane into one of the most surge prone areas in the nation. By the time something did finally go right, it was too late. Category 3, 4, or 5, it wouldn't of mattered at that point. Don't ever forget what happened that monday morning, and never forget those effected.

Ophelia: One of those storms that seems to go out of the way to annoy us.

Rita: Quietly one of the worst Hurricanes in U.S history, like Ivan and Katrina, large and into a very surge prone area, Holly Beach Louisiana resembled Waveland Mississippi after Katrina, as in, nothing left.

Tammy: Even the weakest storms can cause many problems. (Thats right, I'm describing Tammy)

Wilma: Legendary in many aspects. By herself, Wilma set 26 records, most notibly being, most intense atlantic hurricane, andmost rapid deepening in an atlantic hurricane. Wilma was the most the worst Hurricane to hit Mexico since Gilbert, and the most destructive in the nations history. In Florida, Wilma was very simular to Charley and Andrew, but weakened and spread out. Over 6 million lost power and ironically, Wilma sits between the two hurricanes I just compared her to on the costliest U.S hurricanes list.

What we didn't see here, we've seen in the last 11 years

Opal: Hurricanes effects can spread FAR inland.

Fran: Yes, Category 3's still visit the Carolinas.

Danny: Cold fronts can be a pain.

Georges: 7 Landfalls, enough said

Mitch: 9000+ dead, 9000+ missing.

Floyd: Biggest scare since Gloria. One of the standards that all Hurricanes are compared to with freshwater flooding.

Allison: Sits right next to Floyd in several categories, and proves that even Tropical Storms can cause mass havoc.

Lili: Shows how quickly things can change.

----------------------

I don't know about you, but I'm enjoying every quiet moment. Just my two cents.

Been through Hurricane Claudette and TS Allison. Claudette did not affect Houston much, some rain and wind. Allison was a big rainmaker. Some areas got up to 40 inches of rain, including 28 inches in 12 hours! I've seen satellite images of Opal and the cloud base of that hurricane covered the eastern part of America because of frontal interaction.

[WxGuy1]

Katrina: Doomsday storm, Perfect storm, call her what you will, by FAR the worst Hurricane to hit the U.S in over a century, if even that. Argueably the worst natural disaster in U.S history. Whatever could go wrong did, a massive Hurricane into one of the most surge prone areas in the nation. By the time something did finally go right, it was too late. Category 3, 4, or 5, it wouldn't of mattered at that point. Don't ever forget what happened that monday morning, and never forget those effected.

Good post, but I'll continue to argue that Katrina was not a worse-case scenario. The worst of the winds missed the city, and there was only relatively minor (and some moderate) wind damage in the city for the most part (farther east was a different story, but I'm talking about New Orleans itself). Yes, some parts of the city flooded, but, except for the Lower 9th Ward, most of the flooding took place over hours or days. This allowed many people to come out of their homes to find better shelter.

Worst-case would have been Cat 4-5 winds in New Orleans (significant and widespread wind damage to the city (roofs removed, outer walls knocked down, possible collapse of weaker tall buildings, etc), which would also have further complicated post-event evacuation/relocation and rescue attempts. In addition, worst-case would have been a rapid, full-city flooding event (e.g. most of the city floods during the hurricane, not in the 12-36 hours afterward). More levees broken in a very short period of time would have, IMO, led to a 10,000+ fatality count. Quite a few folks where able to get rescued or walk from their homes as the water slowly rose.

Katrina was catastrophic for the region, and it was catastrophic to the city. However, the situation could have been worse. Of course, that's NOT meant to diminish what people went through (note that I still said it was catastrophic), but it was not quite the worse-case scenario. Someday, a mature or strengthening Cat 4-5 will hit New Orleans right on (or just to the west), and we'll see damage and casualities beyond what was seen in Katrina.

[Jim Cantore]

Katrina: Doomsday storm, Perfect storm, call her what you will, by FAR the worst Hurricane to hit the U.S in over a century, if even that. Argueably the worst natural disaster in U.S history. Whatever could go wrong did, a massive Hurricane into one of the most surge prone areas in the nation. By the time something did finally go right, it was too late. Category 3, 4, or 5, it wouldn't of mattered at that point. Don't ever forget what happened that monday morning, and never forget those effected.

Good post, but I'll continue to argue that Katrina was not a worse-case scenario. The worst of the winds missed the city, and there was only relatively minor (and some moderate) wind damage in the city for the most part (farther east was a different story, but I'm talking about New Orleans itself). Yes, some parts of the city flooded, but, except for the Lower 9th Ward, most of the flooding took place over hours or days. This allowed many people to come out of their homes to find better shelter.

Worst-case would have been Cat 4-5 winds in New Orleans (significant and widespread wind damage to the city (roofs removed, outer walls knocked down, possible collapse of weaker tall buildings, etc), which would also have further complicated post-event evacuation/relocation and rescue attempts. In addition, worst-case would have been a rapid, full-city flooding event (e.g. most of the city floods during the hurricane, not in the 12-36 hours afterward). More levees broken in a very short period of time would have, IMO, led to a 10,000+ fatality count. Quite a few folks where able to get rescued or walk from their homes as the water slowly rose.

Katrina was catastrophic for the region, and it was catastrophic to the city. However, the situation could have been worse. Of course, that's NOT meant to diminish what people went through (note that I still said it was catastrophic), but it was not quite the worse-case scenario. Someday, a mature or strengthening Cat 4-5 will hit New Orleans right on (or just to the west), and we'll see damage and casualities beyond what was seen in Katrina.

Absolutely, but Katrina is as bad as we've seen. A large and slow moving category 4 or 5 going west of New Orleans could make Katrina look like a cake walk.

[caribepr]

All I know, and those I personally know in our island(s) neighborhoods confirm - I went on a great four island (St. Thomas, Jost Van Dyke, Tortola, St. John) hopping sail with a friend last week, and talked to a LOT of old friends, sailors and land people alike) - we're just very thankful for this season being the way it has unfolded.Friends in Bermuda had a bit of problems but not horrific.

Maybe it's just a different mind set here...we're so very small and bad storms are so big...so damaging, that we watch with a sickening sense of *how close* versus what will we do? We KNOW what we will do as no evacuation is in question...we will work our plan and hope for the best. And that is ALL we can do. So...while it isn't over yet and we've seen it happen now and past now, we're all v e r y slowly letting out a breath of...Hurricane Thanksgiving Day and all is well. Not yet, but very soon. Happy November! and to those disappointed in not having extreme storms to follow...there is always the future - it WILL come around again.

[f5]

everyone seems to forget Katrina was a very strong category 5 with 175 mph winds and she was extremly huge if a CAT 5 does hit NO it would only show what Katrina WOULD of done had she hit at that strength

[Ptarmigan]

everyone seems to forget Katrina was a very strong category 5 with 175 mph winds and she was extremly huge if a CAT 5 does hit NO it would only show what Katrina WOULD of done had she hit at that strength

Looking at satellite images of Katrina gives me the creeps. When I heard it had 175 mph winds, I was really scared.

[HurricaneBill]

Another active year during the 1970-1994 inactive period was 1975. I believe that was the only year during the 1970s to produce 3 major hurricanes. (Caroline, Eloise, and Gladys)

Eloise was significant because she was first major hurricane to make landfall on the Florida panhandle in over 75 years.

[f5]

everyone seems to forget Katrina was a very strong category 5 with 175 mph winds and she was extremly huge if a CAT 5 does hit NO it would only show what Katrina WOULD of done had she hit at that strength

Looking at satellite images of Katrina gives me the creeps. When I heard it had 175 mph winds, I was really scared.

So beautiful unless your in waveland where she happen to have left a concrete slab on your doorstep to nowhere

[AussieMark]

Another active year during the 1970-1994 inactive period was 1975. I believe that was the only year during the 1970s to produce 3 major hurricanes. (Caroline, Eloise, and Gladys)

Eloise was significant because she was first major hurricane to make landfall on the Florida panhandle in over 75 years.

another active year in that inactive phase was 1988.

Gilbert and Joan were strong landfalling systems (Gibert a 5 into Mexico and Joan a 4 into Nicaragua)

it was also the first season since 1964 to produce 3 hurricanes of 145 mph+

[Jim Cantore]

So beautiful unless your in waveland where she happen to have left a concrete slab on your doorstep to nowhere

From what I've read, if she was nice enough to leave even that.