NC State team has success predicting 2006 N.Atl. season

[gotoman38]

NCSU team called mild hurricane season

Difference in SSTs between N and S Atlantic were their basis.

[Chacor]

They made a mockery of the poor guy's name. It's not pronounced ZHWAY, it's more of "See-yeah".

[hurricanetrack]

I do not understand. Water temps in the Atlantic were well above normal in many places all season long. The Gulf was a bath, most of the MDR was above normal- not quite as much as last season, but certainly NOT below normal. This article is tough to understand. Perhaps it is the writer- but even now, SSTs in the Atlantic are still above normal in most places:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

It is hard to imagine that it all came down to SSTs in two different basins. What about the subsidence and SAL outbreaks? Also, the number of storms and hurricanes in the east Pac were much higher this year than the Atlantic- 18 or so by now, right? If anyone can explain the article better than I am reading it, go ahead please.

[Frank2]

As many here have mentioned, it all seemed to come down to shear this year (it even rhymes) - the warmer than normal Pacific meant lots of warm ocean air moving up and outwards towards the northeast (and towards the Atlantic), versus cool water and subsiding air currents during the 2004 and 2005 seasons, which often meant unsheared Atlantic systems.

To me, the other indicators, while significant (even marginal ocean temps and surrounding dry air can still allow for a modest hurricane), these other factors are often only somewhat significant, but, when it comes to strong shear and hurricanes, usually a hurricane cannot compensate for that negative factor.

Frank

[gotoman38]

Remember that this was a forecast published before the season. (Presented in April, accoring to the article).

Here are the accompanying graphics - it's not clear to me when these SSTs are valid - but it seems to be implied that these were the pre-season predictors used by the researchers.

http://newsobserver.com/content/weather ... ricane.jpg

[f5]

Boy NHC and dr. bill gray really got their tail kicked by him embarrasing times who is TWC going to trust this time some student at the university of NC or some big gun at CSU like Dr.Gray

[NC George]

NCSU isn't the same as UNC.

[f5]

NCSU isn't the same as UNC.

your missing my point the point is he embrassed the big guns NOAA,NHC,DR.Gray,Joe Bastardi all who were calling doomsday hurricagaddon

[hurricanetrack]

Not sure anyone is embarassed, just a little miffed at how they missed the signals. At least NOAA nor CSU used any kind of scare tactics or press releases proclaiming that any one region of the U.S. would likely see a big hurricane- even over the next 10 years. I seem to recall quite a bit of news back in the Spring about the Northeast getting their butts handed to them- sooner rather than later. Also, how's that SW Florida landfall going this season? Or the Carolinas getting rolled up like 1954 all over again? And Texas? Any hurricanes there this season? Nope, not even close. At least NCSU, CSU, TSR and NOAA tell it like it is- not like they WANT it to be.

It is my opinion that no one was embarassed.

[brunota2003]

NOAA, NHC, Dr. Gray were calling for a doomsday hurricane? wow...must of missed that announcement...I know they said chances of a hurricane hitting were higher than normal...but not that NYC or Houston or Tampa Bay were going to be hit...or that any hurricane for that matter was going to hit somewhere...just because NCSU got it right this year doesnt mean they will be as good or better next year...remember the old story, a broken clock is still right twice a day...

[gotoman38]

I think I found the original article published by this group of researchers.

The effect of Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole mode on hurricanes: Implications for the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season

This is the abstract of the article - you have to buy it to read the whole thing - or have a friend at an academic library obtain it for you (which I did).

Among other things, they are stating that the presence of a positive SST dipole (difference from normal N vs S Atlantic temps) is one factor that causes formed storms to travel westward and strike the Carribean or southeastern US.

The conclusions (based on data from 1950-2004) have been supported in the 2005 and 2006 seasons as well - it will be interesting to see if they continue to prove correct.

[Alladin]

The science has not progressed to a point that allows accurate seasonal hurricane predictions. All that can be done is to guess and estimate. Guess correctly three years in a row and you become an expert.

[MGC]

2006 only goes to show how capricious the atmosphere is. Mother Nature will not give up her secrets very easel. Without a doubt science has a long way to go in long range weather prediction.....MGC