Northwest Caribbean/Yucatan System

[gatorcane]

There is still a 1009MB low and it looks like it is finally starting to slowly organize today but ULL winds should keep development slow so we have time to watch it.

I started this thread because it is not 93L so we need a new thread.

[Sanibel]

Hmm. Could be wrong about that vortex yesterday not being tropically active. Today I see a rotating feature about where that vortex would be today. Looks like a west wind too. Just east of Yucatan offshore.

Only problem is it should track right over Yucatan.

[Frank2]

Yes, that might be true, though the outflow is becoming better established - we might see a change in the wording of the next TWO...

Frank

[gatorcane]

Hmm. Could be wrong about that vortex yesterday not being tropically active. Today I see a rotating feature about where that vortex would be today. Looks like a west wind too. Just east of Yucatan offshore.

Only problem is it should track right over Yucatan.

should turn poleward soon with the approaching front.

[rockyman]

Current steering flow:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[jusforsean]

o.k. what happened to 93L? I was at work all day so can you update me pls, tkx

[fci]

I'm confused.

They were talking about 2 systems; NW Carib and SW Carib.
SW Carib went inland and is gone and the NW Carib remains which I thought was 93L.

So what third system are y'all talking about in this thread??

[gatorcane]

have you seen the latest sat pics, really getting going now. Very deep thunderstorms blowing up near the center. It better get inland quick.

[SouthFloridawx]

It may be an interesting situation unfolding... With the n'oreaster type event expected on the southeast coast it may appear that this broad area may help fuel the fire for the system to the north.

As far as this system is concerned affecting the US, probably directly or indirectly remains to be seen. I think it's a safe bet to say it's not going anywhere very quickly, while in light stearing currents. I would say that an ULH over the system is helping to vent it.

I would expect that the area would move off to northeast eventually and probably merging with a front that will be in the S. GOM in a 3 or so days. I wouldn't expect anything really organized as there is, has been and will be wind shear.

All in all I say that weather here in the Southeast and in the Caribbean is going to be a little interesting.

Jacksonville coastal flood statement.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtge ... 0statement

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024s.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

[fci]

OK, the satellite picture says Invest 93L so why is this s adifferent thread than the 93L thread??????

[MiamiensisWx]

I believe they're still counting this weak low system as 93L still. This thread can be deleted/merged with the main 93L thread.

[fci]

I believe they're still counting this weak low system as 93L still. This thread can be deleted/merged with the main 93L thread.

I sent a PM requesting that they combine or delete the NW Carib thread since all this belongs in the 93L thread.

[Steve H.]

This area north of Honduras and east of Belize is looking very interesting this morning. I thought it was going to head inland last night, but has been wondering offshore and may re-develop to the ENE. Lots of strong convection nd some banding evident. I wouldn't say this won't develop as the NHC sees it

[boca]

Agreed their is a very good spin down there but with the weak cold front heading down the Florida peninsula I have no idea what will happen after that. I could guess that whatever is down there will pull a Lenny of 99 and go ENEward

[Stormcenter]

Agreed their is a very good spin down there but with the weak cold front heading down the Florida peninsula I have no idea what will happen after that. I could guess that whatever is down there will pull a Lenny of 99 and go ENEward

What "weak" cold front? You mean the "strong" cold front heading south.

[boca]

According to Miami NWS its a weak front because of the temps here in South Florida won't drop that much.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
157 AM EST THU NOV 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR UPCOMING WX
EVENT. UPPER FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS S FLA WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE TODAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AREA WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SFC, THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
BACK ACROSS S FLA ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE WITH GPS SATELLITE PWAT
ESTIMATE OF NOW AROUND TWO INCHES. THIS ALL WILL BE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHRA ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS WELL. THERE COULD
EVEN BE SOME REPEAT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AS HAPPENED ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHEAST PBI COUNTY. THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT OUR WAY ENDING THE RAINY WX TONIGHT. MAV
GUIDANCE KEEPS SCT POPS AROUND THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
GOING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF E CST SHRA LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.

[vbhoutex]

How about we lock this one and everyone post in the 93L thread from this point on?