Tropical Depression Rosa (EPAC)

[Chacor]

Seems like a new area of disturbed weather has finally formed in the EPac...





AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

Looks like there's two seperate tropical waves in that, according to the TWD...

IN BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10N98W. A SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT TO FORM AND
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY W AND DEEPEN.

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

019
WHXX01 KMIA 071235
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (EP942006) ON 20061107  1200 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061107  1200   061108  0000   061108  1200   061109  0000
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    11.2N 102.5W   12.1N 103.7W   13.2N 104.8W   14.8N 105.7W
  BAMM    11.2N 102.5W   12.2N 104.2W   13.1N 105.8W   14.3N 107.4W
  LBAR    11.2N 102.5W   12.0N 103.9W   13.1N 105.1W   14.5N 106.1W
  SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          44KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          44KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061109  1200   061110  1200   061111  1200   061112  1200
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.1N 105.5W   22.4N  99.0W   26.6N  85.8W   25.1N  70.3W
  BAMM    15.7N 108.6W   17.6N 109.6W   18.2N 110.5W   18.7N 112.7W
  LBAR    16.2N 106.5W   19.6N 105.2W   23.6N 102.5W   28.5N  96.5W
  SHIP        49KTS          50KTS          44KTS          38KTS
  DSHP        49KTS          50KTS          44KTS          38KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  11.2N LONCUR = 102.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
  LATM12 =  10.8N LONM12 = 100.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
  LATM24 =  10.5N LONM24 =  99.0W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$



94E also now up on NRL.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 071740
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
10 AM PST TUE NOV 7 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER CLARK

It looks like TD19-E is around the corner.

[Cyclenall]

I believe this is forming into a tropical cyclone currently based off the current trends and image loops. A TCFA was issued a while ago.

80% of becoming a tropical depression IMO.

[Chacor]

WTPZ24 KNHC 080809
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006
0900 UTC WED NOV 08 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 104.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.5N 106.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.3N 107.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 15.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 104.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 080834
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006
200 AM PDT WED NOV 08 2006

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 345 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30
KT FROM TAFB. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 08/0600Z WIND
REPORT OF 26 KT FROM SHIP WTDK LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
..ALTHOUGH QUALITY CONTROL CHECKS SUGGEST THAT BOTH THE WIND AND
PRESSURE VALUES HAVE BEEN RUNNING JUST A LITTLE HIGH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER
TRICKY AND THE FUTURE MOTION WILL BE DETERMINED STRONGLY BY HOW
MUCH ORGANIZATION THIS SYSTEM ACQUIRES. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
MOVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TOWARD
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN OR
DISSIPATE IT IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SOLUTION WAS CLOSELY
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE
RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
36-48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE RIGHT OF
THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE TD-19E IS
LOCATED BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND REGIME. VERTICAL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SLOW STRENGTHENING. ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES ABOUT 15N LATITUDE...
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER
HOSTILE AND GRADUALLY INDUCE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IF TD-19E REMAINS
SOUTH OF 15N LIKE THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING...THEN LESS WEAKENING THAN FORECAST COULD RESULT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 12.7N 104.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 14.5N 106.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 15.3N 107.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 15.0N 108.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Chacor]

Interesting forecast track, a 360° loop...

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

955
WHXX01 KMIA 081256
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION   NINETEEN (EP192006) ON 20061108  1200 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061108  1200   061109  0000   061109  1200   061110  0000
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.3N 104.0W   14.6N 104.7W   16.4N 104.4W   18.5N 102.8W
  BAMM    13.3N 104.0W   14.5N 105.0W   15.8N 105.5W   17.1N 105.6W
  LBAR    13.3N 104.0W   14.3N 104.5W   15.5N 104.6W   17.3N 104.6W
  SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          41KTS          44KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          41KTS          44KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061110  1200   061111  1200   061112  1200   061113  1200
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    20.4N  99.6W   23.4N  93.0W   25.0N  83.1W   22.6N  74.6W
  BAMM    18.2N 105.3W   20.0N 105.3W   23.0N 105.2W   25.4N 100.2W
  LBAR    18.5N 104.4W   22.1N 102.5W   28.0N  97.0W   31.5N  84.0W
  SHIP        44KTS          38KTS          34KTS          31KTS
  DSHP        44KTS          38KTS          34KTS          31KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  13.3N LONCUR = 104.0W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
  LATM12 =  12.3N LONM12 = 103.5W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
  LATM24 =  11.4N LONM24 = 102.5W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$



[Chacor]

Almost a TS... the next name is Rosa.

WTPZ44 KNHC 081429
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006
700 AM PST WED NOV 08 2006

THE VESSEL 4XGS LOCATED ABOUT 60 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER REPORTED 28 KT WINDS AT 1200 UTC...ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER
QUALITY CONTROL CHECK INDICATED THAT THE SHIP'S WINDS WERE RUNNING
A LITTLE HIGH. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE
INFLATED DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. NONETHELESS THERE HAS BEEN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30
TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST TO ITS NORTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE SYSTEM
COULD WEAKEN SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE
OF THE INITIAL POSITION REQUIRES SOME RELOCATION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. SOME ADDITIONAL RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED
WHEN MORE VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/6. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG IT BECOMES. A BROAD TROUGH IS
PREDICTED TO DROP INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WOULD LIKELY TURN A VERTICALLY-COHERENT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHEAST. THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT I BELIEVE ITS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A LITTLE HIGH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE
SHEARED OFF IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE MOVE
LITTLE BY DAYS 3-5...IF IT SURVIVES THAT LONG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 13.6N 104.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 15.3N 105.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 15.9N 106.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 16.2N 107.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[AnnularCane]

They sure don't seem to expect much from her.

[P.K.]

Looks like they'll name Rosa in the next advisory.

HXX01 KMIA 081859
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ROSA (EP192006) ON 20061108 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061108 1800 061109 0600 061109 1800 061110 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 104.2W 15.7N 104.4W 17.8N 103.4W 19.9N 100.8W
BAMM 14.0N 104.2W 15.4N 105.0W 16.9N 105.3W 18.2N 105.3W
LBAR 14.0N 104.2W 15.2N 104.2W 16.5N 104.1W 18.1N 103.9W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 44KTS 47KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 44KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061110 1800 061111 1800 061112 1800 061113 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.6N 97.1W 24.2N 89.3W 24.5N 78.1W 20.8N 68.5W
BAMM 19.3N 105.1W 21.5N 105.2W 24.3N 103.3W 25.3N 98.1W
LBAR 19.5N 103.6W 23.7N 100.8W 28.8N 93.5W 32.2N 80.1W
SHIP 47KTS 42KTS 36KTS 32KTS
DSHP 47KTS 42KTS 36KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 104.2W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 103.8W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 103.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 082044
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006
100 PM PST WED NOV 08 2006

AFTER BEING VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLIER TODAY...
THE DEPRESSION'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS FALLEN APART DURING THE DAY.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION THE LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOOTING OUTWARD TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
A NARROW WINDOW OF 12 TO 24 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT
POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
STRENGTHENING DESPITE 30 KT OF FORECAST WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT SURVIVE SUCH STRONG
SHEAR...AND IT COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.

AN EARLIER TRMM PASS HELPED TO FORM AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
335/6. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN
GENERALLY NORTHWARD DIRECTION... RESPONDING TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER THESE MODELS
ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STAY A VERTICALLY-COHERENT
SYSTEM DESPITE STRONG SHEAR. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY
TO BEGIN DECOUPLING LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO THE SHEAR...I HAVE
OPTED TO STAY ON THE FAR LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...GFS... AND BAM SHALLOW MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 14.3N 104.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.1N 104.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 15.9N 105.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 16.4N 105.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 16.6N 106.1W 30 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 16.8N 106.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 13/1800Z 17.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Still a TD.The window for it to become a storm is small.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think this may have briefly became Rosa a few hours earlier today when the convective organization and inflow was more organized. Numbers then supported close enough to 35KT, and the synoptics supported that, too. I agree, though, that it is clearly a depression now.

[Chacor]

If this doesn't go on to become a TS, I wonder if the NHC will admit in the TCR it could've been Rosa (like Pilar/16E last year)...

[brunota2003]

If this doesn't go on to become a TS, I wonder if the NHC will admit in the TCR it could've been Rosa (like Pilar/16E last year)...

they will either A) Upgrade posthumorsly (sp) or B) do nothing...it does not receive a name, however it does get added to the final count...they will, however, review all data to see if it became a storm, and if it did they will upgrade it...

[Chacor]

If this doesn't go on to become a TS, I wonder if the NHC will admit in the TCR it could've been Rosa (like Pilar/16E last year)...

they will either A) Upgrade posthumorsly (sp) or B) do nothing...it does not receive a name, however it does get added to the final count...they will, however, review all data to see if it became a storm, and if it did they will upgrade it...

I was wondering because the TCR for EP162005 mentioned the possibility of it being a TS, but didn't upgrade it (although NRL carried it as 16E.PILAR).

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090802
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006
100 AM PST THU NOV 09 2006

DESPITE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
...THE CONVECTIVE CONSTRUCTIVE OF TD-19E HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. A
PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO
-80C HAVING DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/05 BASED ON MICROWAVE AND
NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19E IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS..THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND
THEN MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT COMES UNDER THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE BY A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
REMAINS NEAR TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
SHIFTS EASTWARD. TD-19E HAS ABOUT A 12H-18H WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE CYCLONE TO POSSIBLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS BELOW THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL
INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 14.8N 105.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 15.4N 105.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 16.6N 107.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 12/0600Z 16.8N 107.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 13/0600Z 16.7N 107.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Chacor]

Models again say Rosa. Reissued at 1400UTC.

Code: Select all

998
WHXX01 KMIA 091359
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  TROPICAL STORM       ROSA (EP192006) ON 20061109  1200 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061109  1200   061110  0000   061110  1200   061111  0000
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    15.4N 105.3W   17.4N 104.2W   19.4N 102.0W   21.4N  99.4W
  BAMM    15.4N 105.3W   16.9N 105.6W   18.0N 105.6W   18.9N 105.6W
  LBAR    15.4N 105.3W   16.7N 105.3W   18.2N 105.0W   20.1N 104.8W
  SHIP        35KTS          36KTS          38KTS          39KTS
  DSHP        35KTS          36KTS          38KTS          39KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061111  1200   061112  1200   061113  1200   061114  1200
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    23.4N  96.6W   26.9N  88.1W   27.1N  77.9W   24.2N  69.0W
  BAMM    19.6N 105.8W   21.4N 106.5W   23.3N 105.5W   25.5N  97.5W
  LBAR    22.0N 104.1W   26.6N  98.3W   30.9N  87.1W   29.1N  77.4W
  SHIP        39KTS          36KTS          33KTS          32KTS
  DSHP        39KTS          36KTS          33KTS          32KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  15.4N LONCUR = 105.3W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
  LATM12 =  14.3N LONM12 = 104.9W DIRM12 = 328DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
  LATM24 =  13.3N LONM24 = 104.1W
  WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =   30NM RD34SE =   30NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  30NM
 
 $$



[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 091432
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006
700 AM PST THU NOV 09 2006

DESPITE EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR...CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTER AND PERSISTED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30
KT AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. THE EXPERIMENTAL
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT
HIGHER. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE
RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS. EVEN THOUGH ROSA IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD.
ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BEYOND 12
HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BE A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW
WITH GRADUAL SPIN DOWN THEREAFTER.

GIVEN THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION...ROSA HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE
DEEP-LAYERED FLOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS RESULTING IN AN ALMOST
DUE NORTH MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A
LONGER-TERM AVERAGE YIELDING 340/6. ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 12-24 HOURS RESULTING IN A TURN
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN
THE SHALLOW AND DEEP-LAYER STEERING. THIS INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW FOR SURE EXACTLY
HOW LONG DEEP CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. SHOULD THE
CYCLONE BE ABLE TO HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...A
TRACK MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LANDFALL
ALONG SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 15.7N 105.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 16.4N 105.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 16.8N 106.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 17.2N 106.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 17.6N 107.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 12/1200Z 18.0N 108.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[AnnularCane]

Atta girl, Rosa!