Tropical Depression 20-E in EPac

[WmE]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952006) ON 20061109 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061109 1800 061110 0600 061110 1800 061111 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.2N 112.8W 12.4N 112.7W 13.0N 112.5W 13.1N 112.7W
BAMM 11.2N 112.8W 12.3N 112.7W 12.7N 112.8W 12.7N 113.2W
LBAR 11.2N 112.8W 12.2N 112.6W 13.4N 112.8W 14.6N 113.3W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061111 1800 061112 1800 061113 1800 061114 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 113.0W 14.5N 113.9W 17.4N 113.8W 19.1N 112.3W
BAMM 12.7N 113.9W 13.3N 115.4W 14.5N 116.7W 15.6N 117.4W
LBAR 16.4N 113.7W 21.8N 111.8W 27.8N 101.3W 28.3N 87.2W
SHIP 36KTS 44KTS 48KTS 45KTS
DSHP 36KTS 44KTS 48KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 112.8W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 112.8W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 112.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 101121Z NOV 06//
WTPN21 PGTW 101130
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 11.9N 112.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 112.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 111130Z.
//

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101730
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 10 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ROSA...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES VERY
LITTLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 102327
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST FRI NOV 10 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND THIS SLOWLY-MOVING SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


11/0000 UTC 13.0N 112.3W T2.0/2.0 95E -- East Pacific Ocean




It looks somewhat disorganized at this time.

[Chacor]

20E up on NRL.

Code: Select all

214
WHXX01 KMIA 110659
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION     TWENTY (EP202006) ON 20061111  0600 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061111  0600   061111  1800   061112  0600   061112  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.9N 112.8W   13.3N 113.4W   14.0N 114.2W   15.2N 115.2W
  BAMM    12.9N 112.8W   13.2N 113.8W   13.7N 114.9W   14.5N 116.3W
  LBAR    12.9N 112.8W   13.7N 113.2W   15.4N 113.6W   17.6N 113.6W
  SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          33KTS          34KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          33KTS          34KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061113  0600   061114  0600   061115  0600   061116  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    16.7N 116.4W   20.0N 118.4W   20.3N 119.4W   18.6N 121.2W
  BAMM    15.2N 117.6W   16.8N 120.0W   17.7N 122.5W   17.6N 124.6W
  LBAR    20.3N 112.8W   25.2N 106.8W   26.8N  94.2W   32.2N  90.9W
  SHIP        35KTS          29KTS          22KTS          17KTS
  DSHP        35KTS          29KTS          22KTS          17KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  12.9N LONCUR = 112.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
  LATM12 =  12.6N LONM12 = 111.9W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
  LATM24 =  11.9N LONM24 = 111.9W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$


[Chacor]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110804
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202006
200 AM PDT SAT NOV 11 2006

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ONE

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE TROPICAL
LOW SITUATED ABOUT 620 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND AN 11/0156Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED A FEW 25-30 KT NON-RAIN FLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND NUMEROUS 40-50 KT RAIN FLAGGED HI-RES WIND
VECTORS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE TIME OF THE
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED INTO BANDING FEATURES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/04 KT...BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND
OF QUIKSCAT AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THREE BAM MODELS...THE REST OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR TD-20E TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO A
BROAD COL REGION IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS
...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING
TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW BAND ABOUT 6 DEGREES WIDE OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AS TD-20E MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THIS NARROW COMFORT ZONE AND GRADUALLY
ENCOUNTER INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BY 48 HOURS.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
35-40 KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DUE THE LATTER FORECAST BEING BASED ON
THE MUCH FASTER BAMM MODEL...WHICH MOVES TD-20E OVER COOLER SSTS
AND INTO THE STRONGER SHEAR MUCH SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 13.0N 113.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 13.3N 113.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 114.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 15.7N 116.3W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/0600Z 15.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

LOL what an error! Corrected advisory number to 1... priceless! (BTW, it originally said "2", which is even funnier when you realise the main NHC page said "0":)

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 111500
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202006
800 AM PDT SAT NOV 11 2006

EVEN THOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY DEEP
CONVECTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS NOT
WELL-ORGANIZED. QUIKSCAT DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM A 1300 UTC
OVERPASS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM BARELY HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION
AND IS LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY AN ELONGATED TROUGH ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH SYSTEMS AT
THIS STAGE...THE QUIKSCAT DATA ARE INCONCLUSIVE REGARDING THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS...WITH RETRIEVED WINDS OF 20-25 KT OUTSIDE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND JUST A FEW 35-KT WINDS BENEATH THE
CONVECTION THAT COULD EASILY BE RAIN-INFLATED. GIVEN THE QUIKSCAT
DATA...AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. IF THE SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP A
LESS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD APPEAR
TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN ANTICIPATING THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 260/5...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER WITHIN THE ELONGATED TROUGH.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AND MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THEREAFTER...MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN AND PERHAPS INDUCE A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE GFDL.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 12.3N 113.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 12.5N 113.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 13.3N 114.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 14.1N 114.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 14.9N 114.6W 35 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 15.3N 114.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 15/1200Z 15.5N 115.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 112032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202006
100 PM PST SAT NOV 11 2006

THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS PREDICATED ON THE DEPRESSION
MAINTAINING A LESS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...BUT IT HAS FAILED TO DO
SO. IN FACT...AS SUGGESTED BY THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY DATA FROM
THIS MORNING...HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CIRCULATION HAS ELONGATED TO THE POINT OF BEING AN OPEN
TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF
MILES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE TO NEAR
THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. THE LARGER
TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 12.0N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[brunota2003]

wow...that was quick...worlds shortest tropical cyclone?