GFS,NOGAPS,CMC,UKMET - Southwest Caribbean Development?

[ronjon]

Interesting GFS run this morning - the model develops a tropical cyclone north of Panama and moves it slowly northeast and then northwest into the GOM approaching the west coast of FL in 2 weeks. No doubt its totally fiction on the path but the GFS has been indicating some sort of tropical development off and on over the lest several days of model runs. Perhaps the season isn't quite dead yet or maybe just another false model alarm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[hurricanetrack]

That might be a big OOPS re: the recent declaration that the season is over. Yikes.

[gatorcane]

water temps are still warm enough through the Southern and SE GOM. We still haven't had the knock-out punch cold front to really end the season for the US and that cold front doesn't look like it will be coming through anytime soon based on global models.

Wow if this happened it would be a shocker.

[wxman57]

The GFS has been forecasting development there on nearly every run for 6 weeks. 16 days out, it was forecasting a major Gulf hurricane on the 28th of October. High pressure and clear weather dominated the Gulf behind a strong cold front on that date. It was wrong then and it's likely wrong now.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS



This 12z run moves it towards me in Puerto Rico but I will believe it when I see it in reallity out there.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS



More of the same at the 18z run.But this run does not move it towards Puerto Rico.Phanthom or real? Time will tell.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS



6z GFS



Still GFS shows in the 00z and 6z runs this system but with different scenarios between those runs.Let's see if the other global models join GFS or it's a phanthom loner.

[ronjon]

Luis, NOGAPs has jumped on board with development in the SW Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Luis, NOGAPs has jumped on board with development in the SW Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

That is what I was looking for,another model besides GFS showing it.A building global model consensus brewing?

[Frank2]

I just took a look at that model run - we'll see what happens...

[boca]

Maybe so but I don't believe the models personally especially this year and being so late in the season. Also being an El Nino year. Its not gonna happen.

[wxman57]

Luis, NOGAPs has jumped on board with development in the SW Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

I wouldn't say it "jumped on board", at least not recently. Nogaps has been forecasting something to develop there for quite a while, and it's been wrong, too. New GFS shows a high over the Gulf on the 23rd vs. a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS



More of the same.

[hurricanetrack]

We now have three globals showing it- GFS, Canadian and NOGAPS. We are talking about a week from now also, not 10 days or 2 weeks. I think perhaps the statement from CPC that the hurricane season is over from last week was perhaps premature. We shall see. But that's how things work this year- if NOAA says we are going to have another blockbuster season, then the season shuts off and keeps all action well away from most land areas. When NOAA says hurricane season has ended early, BOOM! we just might get a hurricane in the Caribbean. Wow, wouldn't that just be something. With three models starting to show development in basically the same area, I would have to think we might actually see something get going.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC



Above is what Hurricanetrack (Mark) was talking about,the Canadian model CMC that joins into this.

UKMET also joins the combo of global models showing it.



12z UKMET

The 12z NOGAPS



12z NOGAPS

[cycloneye]

18z GFS



A very interesting 18z run of GFS for those who live in South Florida.But of course it's very far in time and as we know the models change as each run comes out.

[cycloneye]

mm5



I dont follow much the mm5 model but it also shows the Caribbean system.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm more worried about having enough points scored in the Boise State game and whether the Sabres can find the back of the net than I am of a TC right now

[hurricanetrack]

With so much model alignment, overall, why all the negativity for seeing something develop? I could understand if only one model was showing it and it was 10 to 12 days out. But all of the major globals show something getting going down in the SW Caribbean in about a week. It's still hurricane season even though the press has stated that some at CPC/NOAA have declared the season over early this year. Probably not a good idea to have done that- you never know what Nature will do. In one week, we'll know.

[Steve H.]

Luis, that MM5 run is from 25 October. Kindda reinforces wxman's point. But development in the SW Caribbean is certainly possible, but getting north of 20N probably not possible.