Historical Hurricanes of the past research paper

[StormWarning1]

Outstanding paper confirming some things I have always suspected.

Audrey was not a category 4 hurricane. No way you get a 4 in the Northern Gulf in June.

Galveston 1900 moved inland to the west of Freeport, not near Galveston.

Galveston 1915 was stronger than Galveston 1900.

Great info on New England hurricanes.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf

[Jim Cantore]

Great stuff, all I need to do is get more black ink for the printer.

[Derek Ortt]

its high time we stop calling Audrey the benchmark for intensity in Louisiana. I did not believe it was only a cat 1 at landfall, but if confirmed, this changes how we cite the potential for cat 4 landfalls on the NGOM

[wxman57]

its high time we stop calling Audrey the benchmark for intensity in Louisiana. I did not believe it was only a cat 1 at landfall, but if confirmed, this changes how we cite the potential for cat 4 landfalls on the NGOM

Derek, do you know how I could get the CD with the .rex files mentioned in the introduction? I have the SLOSH program and the .rex files can be used to measure wind field size for our study.

As for Audrey, it seems clear that Audrey was no Rita but Rita was only a borderline 2/3. An interesting bit of trivia is that if Audrey and Rita were not at least Cat 3s, then not a single major hurricane has made landfall between Galveston Bay and the mid Louisiana coast in over 150 years. Rita was probably the closest.

Freeport/Galveston is one of the more frequently-hit areas in the last 110 years, through it's been over 50 years since that area has been hit by a real Cat 3 (excluding borderline 2/3 Alicia in '83). I went through the eye of Alicia here in southwest Houston. Winds across Harris County were around 45-55 mph sustained but the storm caused tremendous damage to trees, power lines, and downtown building windows.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure how to get the CD, but you could probably send Chris Landsea and e-mail.

I am convinced and have been since landfall that Rita was a high end cat 2 upon crossing the coast (wind readings from landfall were not that much hgiher than Wilma in Miami, which only brought cat 1 winds to the city). However, 100KT for Rita sounds more plausable that 105KT for Ivan (though that is correct for Dennis)

Did not know about the lack of major hurricanes in that section of the GC

[Opal storm]

Well Rita didn't really look like a normal cat 3 at landfall either.

[Ptarmigan]

Derek, do you know how I could get the CD with the .rex files mentioned in the introduction? I have the SLOSH program and the .rex files can be used to measure wind field size for our study.

As for Audrey, it seems clear that Audrey was no Rita but Rita was only a borderline 2/3. An interesting bit of trivia is that if Audrey and Rita were not at least Cat 3s, then not a single major hurricane has made landfall between Galveston Bay and the mid Louisiana coast in over 150 years. Rita was probably the closest.

Freeport/Galveston is one of the more frequently-hit areas in the last 110 years, through it's been over 50 years since that area has been hit by a real Cat 3 (excluding borderline 2/3 Alicia in '83). I went through the eye of Alicia here in southwest Houston. Winds across Harris County were around 45-55 mph sustained but the storm caused tremendous damage to trees, power lines, and downtown building windows.

The area between Galveston and mid Louisiana coast seems to be lucky of avoiding getting hit by major hurricanes. On the other hand, they get lots of rain. I remember Hurricane Alicia too. The eye passed over our area. I was very young at the time. Did Alicia make landfall as a Category 3? I know Hurricane Rita was a Category 3 hurricane at landfall, based on satellite images it looked rather large.

[Ptarmigan]

Outstanding paper confirming some things I have always suspected.

Audrey was not a category 4 hurricane. No way you get a 4 in the Northern Gulf in June.

Galveston 1900 moved inland to the west of Freeport, not near Galveston.

Galveston 1915 was stronger than Galveston 1900.

Great info on New England hurricanes.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf

I didn't think the Galveston 1900 Hurricane did not hit Galveston directly. A hurricane hitting around Freeport would be much worse for the Houston-Galveston area. As for Audrey, I wonder where they got the idea it was a category 4?

[wxman57]

The area between Galveston and mid Louisiana coast seems to be lucky of avoiding getting hit by major hurricanes. On the other hand, they get lots of rain. I remember Hurricane Alicia too. The eye passed over our area. I was very young at the time. Did Alicia make landfall as a Category 3? I know Hurricane Rita was a Category 3 hurricane at landfall, based on satellite images it looked rather large.

I was working at the same company back in 1983 as I am now. Alicia was a questionable Cat 3 at landfall. Really a borderline Cat 3. Only a tiny area of Cat 3 winds offshore. Alicia didn't produce hurricane-force winds across the Greater Houston area, only moderate TS-force wind.

[Ptarmigan]

I was working at the same company back in 1983 as I am now. Alicia was a questionable Cat 3 at landfall. Really a borderline Cat 3. Only a tiny area of Cat 3 winds offshore. Alicia didn't produce hurricane-force winds across the Greater Houston area, only moderate TS-force wind.

I've seen satellite images of Alicia and it looked very small for a hurricane. I would not be surprised if the Category 3 winds were in a very small area. I wonder how far hurricane and tropical storm force winds extended in Alicia?

[Derek Ortt]

The TCR states that Alicia was called a 100KT cat 3 based upon 100KT winds at 850mb. However, some flights back then reported winds lower than they should have (doppler problems)

Probably a cat 2 for Alicia is a good estimate of its landfall intensity

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Great paper, just one error I picked up on. Hurricane Edna 1954 was slightly lower than Carol; with 954 mb at Cape Cod:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

That may not be an error

The HURDAT database is so bad in many places, especially in the 1950's, as evidenced by Audrey a possible cat 1 that was called a cat 4, that I would not rely upon that for anything

[StormWarning1]

[As for Audrey, it seems clear that Audrey was no Rita but Rita was only a borderline 2/3. An interesting bit of trivia is that if Audrey and Rita were not at least Cat 3s, then not a single major hurricane has made landfall between Galveston Bay and the mid Louisiana coast in over 150 years. Rita was probably the closest.

Freeport/Galveston is one of the more frequently-hit areas in the last 110 years, through it's been over 50 years since that area has been hit by a real Cat 3 (excluding borderline 2/3 Alicia in '83). I went through the eye of Alicia here in southwest Houston. Winds across Harris County were around 45-55 mph sustained but the storm caused tremendous damage to trees, power lines, and downtown building windows.

Storm 10 in 1886 was a major at Sabine Pass. That same area was hit by another major hurricane in 1918, it was storm 1 of that year.

Another hurricane that hit just East of Galveston in 1943 is a good candidate for an upgrade from a cat 2 to a cat 3 per re-analysis. The cat 3 winds will be confined to an area near a town called High Island. This was a compact storm, so the area of cat 3 winds will be a couple miles along the beach front and a few miles inland.

[Ptarmigan]

Storm 10 in 1886 was a major at Sabine Pass. That same area was hit by another major hurricane in 1918, it was storm 1 of that year.

Another hurricane that hit just East of Galveston in 1943 is a good candidate for an upgrade from a cat 2 to a cat 3 per re-analysis. The cat 3 winds will be confined to an area near a town called High Island. This was a compact storm, so the area of cat 3 winds will be a couple miles along the beach front and a few miles inland.

Are you talking about the surprise hurricane of 1943? That one was stronger than believed. It also dumped up to 18 inches of rain in Beaumont.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It is wonderful to finally have partial official tracks and intensity estimates for the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 and the Great September Gale 0f 1815.

In addition it is very vindicating for me personally that these (and the Long Island Express & Hurricane Carol of 1954) storms have finally be recognized as category 3 hurricanes (perhaps even a cat 4 in regards too the 1635 storm) at their New England landfalls. I've been telling people this for years; based upon the evidence I have seen in the Archives of the US and Canada, and now I finally have the iron clad proof to back it up.

Bravo for the fantastic paper!