Tropical Cyclone Yani 04F in South Pacific (JTWC: 02P)

[Chacor]

Fiji has identified a tropical depression currently on NRL as 92P.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Nov 17/0933 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1006HPA] NEAR 06.5S 175E AT 170600UTC MOVING
WEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR ANIMATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HRS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT WITH SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS. 04F LIES TO THE NORTH OF A 250 HPA RIDGE IN
A DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS [AVN/UKGC/NOGAPS/GASPS] SLOWLY MOVES 04F
WESTWARDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Nov 17/2330 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1008HPA] NEAR 07S 176E AT 172100UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR ANIMATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HRS BUT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITH
SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS. 04F LIES TO THE NORTH OF A 250 HPA
RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS [AVN/UKGC/NOGAPS/GASPS] SLOWLY
MOVES 04F WESTSOUTHWEST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[Chacor]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Nov 18/0912 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1003HPA] NEAR 8.5S 171.5E AT 180600UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR ANIMATION. SST IN THE AREA
ABOUT 29C.

04F LIES EMBEDDED IN A MONSOONAL TROUGH WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WORKING ITS WAY TO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. PULSATING CONVECTION AT THIS STAGE TO THE NORTH.
04F LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE 250 HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS SLOWLY MOVES 04F WESTSOUTHWEST WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SHORT TERM.

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[Chacor]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Nov 18/2305 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1003HPA] LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 167.3E AT
182100UTC MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
ANIMATION. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29C.

04F REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOONAL TROUGH WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SURROUNDING
CONVECTION HAS BECOME RAGGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
MCS IS EVIDENT ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IN AN AREA OF
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND THIS IS ALSO PROPAGATING WESTWARDS. 04F LIES TO THE NORTH OF
THE 250 HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. CURRENTLY, DECREASED DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC IS WORKING AGAINST THE DEPRESSION.
HOWEVER, WEAKER ENVIRONMENT SHEAR AND INCREASED DIFFLUENCE FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST ARE LIKELY TO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF 04F IF IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE 04F WEST
OR SOUTHWEST WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IT.

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[Chacor]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Nov 19/0104 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1002HPA] RELOCATED NEAR 9.7S 166.4E AT
190000UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
VIS/IR ANIMATION. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29C.

04F REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOONAL TROUGH WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SURROUNDING
CONVECTION HAS BECOME RAGGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
MCS IS EVIDENT ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IN AN AREA OF
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND THIS IS PROPAGATING WESTWARDS. 04F LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
250 HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. CURRENTLY, DECREASED DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC IS WORKING AGAINST THE DEPRESSION.
HOWEVER, WEAKER ENVIRONMENT SHEAR AND INCREASED DIFFLUENCE FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST ARE LIKELY TO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF 04F IF IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE 04F WEST
OR SOUTHWEST WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IT.

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[Chacor]

19/2033 UTC 12.1S 162.3E T1.0/1.0 92P -- South Pacific Ocean

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Nov 19/2306 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1000HPA] NEAR 12.0S 161.7E AT 192100UTC
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
ANIMATION. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 30C.

04F REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOONAL TROUGH WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
SURROUNDING CONVECTION INCREASED OVERNIGHT BUT WARMING IN THE LAST
3-4 HOURS INDICATES IT REMAINS UNDER A DIURNAL INFLUENCE. 04F HAS
MOVED INTO A MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE 250HPA SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN AN AREA OF WEAKER SHEAR AND MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE 04F WEST WHILE VERY SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IT.


POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[Squeako da Magnifico]

Starting to wind up now

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2007&MO=11&BASIN=SHEM&STORM_NAME=92P.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&STYLE=tables

[HurricaneBill]

Next name on the list is "Yani".

[Chacor]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Nov 21/0922 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1000HPA] NEAR 11.1S 161.1E AT 210600 UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 30C.

04F REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOONAL TROUGH WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SURGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
SURROUNDING CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 4 HOURS AS 04F
CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL VARIATION. 04F STILL REMAINS IN
A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE 250HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN
AREA OF WEAK SHEAR. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK SYSTEM WHILE
MOVING 04F GENERALLY WESTWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[Chacor]

GALE WARNING 008 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 21/0701 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 04F [1000hPa] located near 11.1S 161.1E at 210600 UTC slow
moving. Position poor. Expect clockwise winds 25 to 30 knots within 120 miles of
centre in the southern semicircle, possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next
24 hours.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send reports
every three hours. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax
plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 007.

[P.K.]

BoM and SAB Dvorak analyses are now up to T2.0 so RSMC Nadi should upgrade the chance of a TC forming in the 2300 update. The JTWC also have it as a T2.5.

[P.K.]

WTPS11 NFFN 212100
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 21/2237 UTC 2006 UTC.

Topical Depression 04F [997hPa] centre was located near 12.0S 162.1E
at 212100 UTC moving southeast about 3 knots. Position fair based on
HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute
average winds estimated at 30 knots within 120 miles of centre in the
southern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 12
hours.

Overall organisation increased significantly past 12 hours.
Convection erupted last night with tops cooling markedly. The two
primary bands have now virtually merged into one and wrapping around
the llcc. However, some warming observed past 4 hours and appears to
continue. 04F is located just south of a 250hPa rige axis in a region
of 5-10kt shear.SST around 28-29C. Depression expected to drift
slowly southeast further before turning southwest under a north to
northeast steering regime. Potential for 04F to develop into a
tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is high.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD04F will be issued around
220200 UTC.

[Coredesat]

This is now showing up as 02P.NONAME on NRL. No change to the image headers yet.

[P.K.]

TC ADVISORY
DTG:200611220100Z
TCAC:NFFN
TC:YANI
NR:01
PSN:S11218 E16230
MOV:SE 04KT
C:995HPA
MAX WIND:35KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR:S1312 E16248
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR:40KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR:S1336 E16242
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR:45KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR:S1400 E16230
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR:45KT
NXT MSG:20061122/0730Z

[RattleMan]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 22/0214 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI 04F [995hPa] centre was located near 12.3S
162.5E at 220000 UTC moving southeast about 04 knots. Position fair
based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum
10-minute average winds estimated at 35 knots within 120 miles of
centre in the southern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in
the northern semicircle increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24
hours.

Organisation steadily increasing with primary band wrapping tightly
around llcc. Convection increased spatially and tops have begun
cooling again after a brief warming. Outflow good to south but
restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.6 on
log10 spiral thus T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24hrs. Cyclone is located just south
of a 250-hPa rige axis in a region of 5-10kt shear. SST around
28-29C. Global models struggling with Yani. Obtaining a sensible
consensus impossible. System expected to move southeast further
before turning southwest under a north to northeast steering regime
in the next 24 hours.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid 221200UTC near 13.2S 162.8E mov SSE at 04kt with 40kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid 230000UTC near 14.5S 162.5E mov SSW at 04kt with 45kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 231200UTC near 14.3S 161.8E mov SW at 05kt with 50kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 240000UTC near 14.8S 161.0E mov SW at 05kt with 55kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 220800 UTC.

[wxmann_91]

I don't know what the JTWC is thinking...it brings this to 90 kt in 48 hr! Usually when it forecasts that rate of intensification, the storm doesn't become as powerful as expected.

[Chacor]

WTPS01 NFFN 221200
STORM Warning 013 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 22/1313 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI [987hPa] centre was located near 12.7 South
162.6 East at 221200 UTC. Position fair.
Repeat position 12.7S 162.6E at 221200 UTC.
Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 03 knots but expected to
gradually turn west.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots within 120 miles of centre in the
southeastern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern
semicircle, increasing to 50 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast position near 12.9S 162.5E at 230000 UTC

and near 13.4S 161.7E at 231200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 012.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 162.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (YANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245
NM SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SOUTHERLY
MOTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED TC 02P IS IN THE
AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS DEPICTS
VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CORAL
SEA. THIS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERN THE FORECAST TRACK
OF 02P, RANGING FROM DUE WESTWARD RUNNERS TO RAPID TRACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUPS FAVORS A CLIMATOLOGICAL
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS PLACED ON THE
ATYPICAL WESTWARD TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.
//

JTWC hold it at 45 kt.

[wxmann_91]

If this wants to intensify as fast as JTWC's indicating, it'll have to do it quickly. Shear increases rapidly further south and SST's drop off rapidly as well.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 22/2013 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI 04F [985hPa] centre was located near 12.9S
162.8E at 221800 UTC moving south-southeast about 03 knots but
expected to turn west. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 50 knots
increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds over 47
knots within 30 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of
centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre
in the northwest semicircle.

Organisation steadily increasing though appearing sheared. Primary
band still wrapping tightly around llcc. Outflow good to south and
west but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of
0.85 on log10 spiral yielding DT=3.5, MET and PAT agree. Final T
based on DT thus T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone is located just south
of a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent and weak shear region. SST
around 28-29C. Yani expected to move west under strong mid level
ridge to east and south. Global models generally agree on a westward
track with gradual intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid 230600UTC near 12.8S 162.4E mov W at 02kt with 55kt close
to centre.
24hrs valid 231800UTC near 12.9S 161.8E mov W at 02kt with 60kt close
to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 240600UTC near 13.3S 161.0E mov WSW at 03kt with 65kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 241800UTC near 13.7S 159.9E mov WSW at 04kt with 70kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 230200 UTC.