2007 Gray prediction, our predictions?

[CrazyC83]

Dr. Gray's prediction for the 2007 season comes out in early December. Any guesses on what he will think? What do YOU think the season will be like?

My guess: 14/8/4 - only one weak storm before mid-August due to the El Nino but the season ramps up quickly thereafter. Similar to 1998 basically.

By month:

June - 0/0/0
July - 1/0/0
August - 2/1/0
September - 5/3/2
October - 4/3/1
November - 2/1/1

As for Gray, I think he will call for a near-average season.

[Chacor]

Given this season... and comparing to 1997... and then 1998... well, I'd rather not go there, we don't need another Mitch.

Given this September was actually more active than last September, even with an El Niño... I think September will generate the most activity next year in a 12/6/2 season. (This season we had 9/5/2, which means I think the number of hurricanes and major/intense hurricanes won't change too much, although we may see a few more named storms should El Niño lighten...)

[Ptarmigan]

2004 was a very active season, but oddly enough, there was an El Nino.

[Andrew92]

Given this season... and comparing to 1997... and then 1998... well, I'd rather not go there, we don't need another Mitch.

Given this September was actually more active than last September, even with an El Niño... I think September will generate the most activity next year in a 12/6/2 season. (This season we had 9/5/2, which means I think the number of hurricanes and major/intense hurricanes won't change too much, although we may see a few more named storms should El Niño lighten...)

This September, there were 4 storms to develop, all of which became hurricanes. In 2005, there were 5 storms to develop, all of which became hurricanes. In addition, 2 became major hurricanes in 2005 (and in 2006), and one (Rita) became a C5. I would say September 2005 was still more active than September 2006.

With that said, I say Gray's initial numbers to be 13/7/3.

-Andrew92

[Chacor]

I was basing September's activity off Gray's report, actually. NSDs this year in September were more than last year.

[CrazyC83]

I was basing September's activity off Gray's report, actually. NSDs this year in September were more than last year.

That is because of the fact that they were primarily Cape Verde storms, unlike last year when only one was.

[wxmann_91]

Given this season... and comparing to 1997... and then 1998... well, I'd rather not go there, we don't need another Mitch.

Given this September was actually more active than last September, even with an El Niño... I think September will generate the most activity next year in a 12/6/2 season. (This season we had 9/5/2, which means I think the number of hurricanes and major/intense hurricanes won't change too much, although we may see a few more named storms should El Niño lighten...)

1997-98 was a strong nino followed by a strong nina 1998-99. That really isn't a good comparison so we don't need to worry about another Mitch (unless a strong nina appears next year).

And yes, I agree with CrazyC83. Weaker but longer lived storms.

[Andrew92]

Actually, going by the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index, I figured an ACE for the September 2005 storms of 68.19, and an ACE for the September 2006 storms of 63.06. Very close, yes, but in that regard, 2005 was still just barely more active than September 2006.

I'm not in any way downgrading NSDs; but the ACEs still tell a different story. In any event, let's get back to the topic of next year's predictions by Gray.

I wouldn't say next year is going to be a Nina. In fact I'm still deciding if next year will be neutral or Nino (been leaning towards neutral for a long time though, and still am right now). But I do think the United States will be more under the gun next year than this year. And even if next year is a Nino, 1992 was a Nino last I checked. Yeah, that year was mostly tame, minus one infamous little storm named Andrew.

-Andrew92

[Evil Jeremy]

I forecast 14 storms. I actually have my own detailed forecast on my site.

[mike815]

im thinking that he will call for 15

[wxman57]

I don't think that El Nino or La Nina will be much of a factor in 2007. Warm water in the eastern Pacific is quite shallow, so not much effect from that area. SSTs will likely remain above normal for decades to come, as was the case from 1926-1969 during the last warm AMO. That means maybe 1 more named storm reaches hurricane strength each year and 1-2 more of the named storms become majors. The warm cycle doesn't mean more named storms, however. The recent upswing in named storms (over the 1920s-1960s) is partly due to better detection due to satellite from the 1970s on and partly due to the recent change to the naming of subtropical storms. So it's possible that the new average will be closer to 11-12 named storms per season for the next decade or two with between 6-8 hurricanes and from 3-4 major hurricanes.

Past 12 Years Activity:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/recent.gif

Activity 1945-1969 (similar AMO/PDO):
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/warmcycle.gif

It's probably unlikely that too many future seasons will have 14-15-16 named storms. As the PDO turns cooler, the Bermuda High will probably average stronger and farther west, like early 2006. That increases low-level shear in the deep tropics and results in a reduction of named storms.

Soooo, I'd expect perhaps 11 or 12 named storms in 2007, 7 hurricanes, and 3 or 4 major hurricanes. There's probably a 60-70% shot that 1 major hurricane will enter the Gulf of Mexico in 2007 and a good chance that the east U.S. Coast will be impacted bya Cat 2-3 hurricane.

[HurricaneBill]

Seasons ending with "7" seem to be rather quiet. Same applies to seasons ending with "2".

[AussieMark]

Seasons ending with "7" seem to be rather quiet. Same applies to seasons ending with "2".

1947 and 1967 had majors strike the US tho

[wxman57]

Seasons ending with "7" seem to be rather quiet. Same applies to seasons ending with "2".

1947 and 1967 had majors strike the US tho

And 1957 - Audrey. Three of the five "7" years during the last active AMO cycle brought a major hurricane to the U.S. You might even consider Danny of 1997 as a major impact, as it produced over 3 ft of rain around Mobile Bay, AL.

[Coredesat]

Seasons ending with "7" seem to be rather quiet. Same applies to seasons ending with "2".

1947 and 1967 had majors strike the US tho

And 1957 - Audrey. Three of the five "7" years during the last active AMO cycle brought a major hurricane to the U.S. You might even consider Danny of 1997 as a major impact, as it produced over 3 ft of rain around Mobile Bay, AL.

Since we're discussing seasons in "7" years...

[f5]

before he comes out with the 07 forecast i want him to explain all the Katrinas,Ritas and Wilmas for the 06 season for the past couple of yrs his forecast has been irrevelant

[johnq1954]

Look at the SSTs since July - they're rapidly cooling in the polar regions, and that cooling is extending into the temperate regions.

current SSTs:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

July SSts:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

Compare those to just a few months prior:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

And compare them to November, 2005:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

And November, 2004:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

We haven't seen SSTs like this in many years. If the trend continues, we'll see a smaller number of storms next season, in my opinion

[CrazyC83]

before he comes out with the 07 forecast i want him to explain all the Katrinas,Ritas and Wilmas for the 06 season for the past couple of yrs his forecast has been irrevelant

A Katrina-like storm can happen in a season with low activity as well...

I think the start will be slow - I don't expect a hurricane before mid-August at the earliest, perhaps not until September. The activity should pick up thereafter.

[HURAKAN]

I will go with 12/7/4. El Niño will be taken into consideration, but also the fact that we are in a very active cycle. Therefore, I will go with just a little bit above normal.

[Andrew92]

I agree with the late start possibility for next year. One of my analogs for 2007 as of right now in fact would be 2001, another year that started late. Yeah, 2001 had Allison in June, but there was no more activity until August, with the first hurricane in September finally. But then the season REALLY heated up, and we still had 15 storms, 9 hurricanes.

I don't think 2007 will be as active as 2001, but I could see 13 named storms in 2007 if the El Nino dies out when I think it will (May or June). 7 of those may become hurricanes.

I am aware that there wasn't an El Nino coming into 2001, and that there were different reasons for the lateness. However, I wonder if the setup for development will become similar to 2001 in August or September. One caveat though: unlike 2001, I do think the U.S. will get hit by at least one hurricane, quite possibly a major.

-Andrew92