Thoughts on the 2006 Hurricane Season - Revisited

[jasons2k]

The following is an article that I submitted for the S2K summer newsletter. To my knowledge, the newsletter never got published.

I wanted to post this article to show our concerns back in May for the 2006 Hurricane Season. It turned out to be quite the opposite of what was expected.

Thoughts on the 2006 Hurricane Season
By: Jason Schlitz (jschlitz)
June 1, 2006

It’s hard to believe that as we officially begin the 2006 hurricane season, hundreds of thousands of people are still adjusting to the life-changing events of last season. As if the 2004 season wasn’t already a wake-up call, the 2005 season sent millions of coastal residents into panic mode. Unfortunately, early indications are that the 2006 season may provide more of the same headaches and heartaches along the coast.

On May 30th, I was able to attend the Houston-Galveston Hurricane Conference in downtown Houston. The featured guest was Mr. Stacy Stewart of the National Hurricane Center. Mr. Stewart began his presentation by stating “what we've seen the last two or three years is the new norm of hurricane activity.” He presented several slides showing the contributing factors for the last two busy seasons. Next, he presented slides showing many of the same factors present as we approach the 2006 season.

One of the most unsettling of these slides, at least for us in Texas, was the projected steering flows. Mr. Stewart said these patterns were very similar in 2005, and are expected to be the same for 2006. The only notable difference, he stated, “if anything, these patterns for this year have shifted a bit west.” Also, unlike 2005, an active Cape Verde season is expected to provide enhanced threats to the U.S. East Coast.

Mr. Stewart also emphasized the danger of rapidly intensifying storms. Every hurricane is unique, and its lifecycle can vary widely from one storm to the next, even with projected intensity parameters being fairly equal. Mr. Stewart explained that Wilma was an excellent example of explosive development in a very short period. He said “now imagine if the very same occurred just offshore of a major U.S. metropolitan area. There is nothing sacred about the U.S. coastline to shelter us. Eventually a storm will bottom-out just off the coast of Houston; it’s just a matter of time. Hurricane Charley was a good example of an exploding storm just off the U.S. coast. If Charley had not turned, he would have hit Tampa as a Category 5 hurricane and the Tampa area would not be the same today.” Mr. Stewart closed his presentation by saying "Unfortunately for 2006, I don't see much change from what we saw last year."

We have all looked at the various forecasts issued by NOAA, Dr. Gray, and private sources that have outlined the contributing factors for another busy season. We’ve also had some time to examine the controversial landfall probability forecasts as well. Some common themes are that increased landfall probabilities exist for most of the Atlantic Basin, especially the Western Gulf of Mexico, South Florida, and the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. It is important for anyone interpreting these forecasts to realize that they are just that – a forecast. This is especially true for landfall probabilities as they are a recent addition to the collection of outlooks. In the end, the composite map for the 2006 season may ultimately look very different than the projected mean paths towards these higher risk areas. In short, anyone who lives along the coast is at risk.

Aside from the gloom-and-doom, there are reasons to be optimistic about the 2006 season versus the past. Government officials at all levels are recognizing the threat posed by tropical cyclones and are making strides to be more prepared and proactive this season than ever before. Here in Texas, Governor Rick Perry has created a Hurricane Evacuation Task Force and the Houston region now has an "Incident Commander" to coordinate the evacuation. Hurricane drills have been executed all across hurricane alley to simulate the stress on public resources during a major hurricane event. The goals for these changes include more efficient evacuations, better communication amongst various agencies, faster response times to changing conditions, and improved distribution of post-landfall food, water, and medical supplies.

In addition, government agencies and the media have campaigned to increase public awareness of hurricane threats. After all, the best preparation for hurricane season begins on an individual level. Planning, common sense, and personal responsibility were key points made throughout the Houston-Galveston Hurricane Conference. Mayor Bill White of Houston emphasized that citizens cannot depend on a government agency to tell them exactly where to go or exactly what to do; people will be expected to use common sense and make intelligent decisions or they will be putting their lives at risk. Moreover, he stated “it all begins with us, right here in this room, to spread the word that people need to be prepared and have an evacuation plan.”

In summary, the 2006 season promises to be another active season in the Atlantic basin with numerous threats to the US coastline. It appears that government officials and emergency management workers are aiming to ensure we are all more prepared than ever for a potential disaster. But in the end, we must educate others about the seriousness of the threat. Check on neighbors. Check on friends and relatives. Have an evacuation plan, if necessary. Regardless if you live in one of the areas labeled “high risk” or not for the upcoming season, nobody can predict if the big one will hit your own neighborhood until a storm is only a few days, or mere hours, away. We should all be prepared as if that day may come tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

Sometimes you get your money's worth when you bet on the 5%!!!!

Unfortunately, I didn't!!! I wasn't expecting such a quiet season.