November ENSO Update from Models=Neutral by next summer

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

I prefer to see what is going on in a almost daily basis looking at the data,but it's always good to see what the ENSO models are predicting in the medium and long term about how will El Nino,Neutral or La Nina will be in the next 4-8 months.It looks like the majority of the models are predicting Neutral ENSO conditions by June or July,2007.

However to note,the models did not predict with precision the current status of the Moderate El Nino back in July and August and that is why the experts like Colorado State University,NOAA and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) failed in their seasonal forecasts.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Other important factors are the states of the SAL (which I would contend was the key factor that precluded an active season this past year) and the NAO. I, like yourself, will adopted a "wait and see" approach until we are closer to the actual season itself (say about March or April).

[cycloneye]

Other important factors are the states of the SAL (which I would contend was the key factor that precluded an active season this past year) and the NAO. I, like yourself, will adopted a "wait and see" approach until we are closer to the actual season itself (say about March or April).

Yeah,the sal was a very important negative factor for the 2006 Tropical Atlantic season.