WTPS11 NFFN 300600
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 30/0726 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Depression 05F [999hPa] centre was located near 7.7S 164.0E
at 300600 UTC. Position poor based on HRES MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with
animation. Depression moving west about 05 knots. Maximum 10-minute
average winds estimated at 30 knots within 90 miles in the southeast
semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 24 to 36
hours.
Cloud organisation has increased significantly in the past 12 hours.
A primary band to the south continues to develop as it rotates into
the LLCC. Outflow is fair to good in all quadrants. Dvorak based on
Curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral with DT=2.0 PAT =2.0 Final
T=2.0, thus T2.0/2.0/D0.5/06hrs. 05F currently lies in a favourable
area underneath the 250hPa ridge axis. Shear in the area remains
around 15 knots with increasing shear south of latitude 10S. SST
around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. 05F is currently located on the
back-end of a mid-level ridge which may steer it southwards in the
next 24 hours. Global models that have captured the system generally
move the system south which gradual deeepening.
Potential for TD05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next in
the next 24 hours is moderate to high.
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued
around 301400 UTC.
Tropical Depression 05F (SouthPac) [JTWC: TC 04P]
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Tropical Depression 05F (SouthPac) [JTWC: TC 04P]
Last edited by Chacor on Thu Nov 30, 2006 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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JTWC has initiated warnings.
WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 7.7S 164.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S 164.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 8.0S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 8.5S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 9.4S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 10.9S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04P WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED NORTH OF FIJI. TC 04P WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATALOGICAL
RATE DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 300552Z
NOV 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 300600)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.
//
WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 7.7S 164.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S 164.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 8.0S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 8.5S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 9.4S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 10.9S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04P WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED NORTH OF FIJI. TC 04P WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATALOGICAL
RATE DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 300552Z
NOV 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 300600)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.
//
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HurricaneBill
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GALE WARNING 028 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 30/1915 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Depression 05F [998 hPa] centre was located near 9.0 South 162.8 East
at 301800 UTC. Position poor.
Depression moving towards the west-southwest at about 05 knots.
Clockwise winds 30 knots within 100 miles of centre in the northeastern
semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the southwestern semicircle possibly
increasing to 35 knots in the next 24 hours.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 027.
Tropical Depression 05F [998 hPa] centre was located near 9.0 South 162.8 East
at 301800 UTC. Position poor.
Depression moving towards the west-southwest at about 05 knots.
Clockwise winds 30 knots within 100 miles of centre in the northeastern
semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the southwestern semicircle possibly
increasing to 35 knots in the next 24 hours.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 027.
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