Northwest Caribbean Low

[Frank2]

This morning a local OCM (perhaps a loco OCM) mentioned that a low is forecast to form in the NW Caribbean over the next few days - he didn't mention anything else about it...

Frank

[boca]

THE GFS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY CONFUSED AS TO WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE. IN
EARLIER RUNS, IT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH S FLA
AND NOW IT HAS COMPLETELY BACKED OFF THIS IDEA. IT NOW DIGS A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO S TEXAS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF
MEX ON FRIDAY. IT THEN DEVELOPS A SFC LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN AND
MOVES IT TOWARDS S FLA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ACROSS S FLA AND
THE MEX GIVES ME HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CANNOT TOTALLY IGNORE THE HIGHER POPS BUT FOR
NOW WILL ONLY GO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD UNTIL LATER RUNS GET
A BETTER FEEL AS TO WHAT MAY OCCUR.


&&

He might not be totally loco the Miami NWS hints at this too.

[Dean4Storms]

Something to keep an eye on, so far only the GFS has jumped on this surface low in the Gulf.

[hurricanetrack]

Wouldn't that just be what happens- a named storm in December once again. Who knows? We've had them every year since 2003, right? So why quit now. Oh, O forgot, because this is 2006 and nothing happens the way it is supposed to.

[dizzyfish]

From the 2pm disco from NWS Tampa Bay

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...MODELS BEGINNING TO COME
MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER IN RESPECT TO LATE WEEK WEATHER. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STALLED OUT COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT. GFS REMAINS THE
STRONGEST WITH RESPECT TO THIS LOW AND OVERALL PRECIPITATION...BUT
IN GENERAL ALL THE MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT AND THEN MOVE IT EAST
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.
IF GFS SCENARIO IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE OUR FIRST EL NINO TYPE
EVENT WITH SOME PORTION OF THE AREA RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.


I really wouldn't mind some rain........

[hurricanetrack]

What makes this one event, potential event that is, El Nino related? How is El Nino responsible for this one low pressure area? Just curious.

[HURRICANELONNY]

That's a good question. All I can say is I remember some of the severe weather that came in Jan-Feb of 97. That was a stonger El Nino then this right now. Here in S. Fl we usually get more rain because the southern jet in stonger and more south. There was an article in the USA TODAY that was a little interesting.http://www.usatoday.com/wea ... nino_x.htm

[Rainband]

What makes this one event, potential event that is, El Nino related? How is El Nino responsible for this one low pressure area? Just curious.

I think it has something to do with the low developing from moisture in the Pacific transitioning into the GOM. Pineapple express.

[linkerweather]

What makes this one event, potential event that is, El Nino related? How is El Nino responsible for this one low pressure area? Just curious.

I think it has something to do with the low developing from moisture in the Pacific transitioning into the GOM. Pineapple express.

Not so much Pineapple express...that gets its name from a flow that hits the west coast US from Hawaii. Hence pineapple.

But, this is an el nino type event in the sense that the subtropical jet stream originating from the equatorial pacific is going to link up with the approaching front(disturbance) from the NW similar to past el nino winters here in Florida. The GFS has been hinting at these active jet stream driven systems for quite some time now. 06z run coming inline with an active day possibly on Friday. Timing seems to still be uncertain.

[boca]

It looks like whatever is trying to form down there is starting to shear out and be a non event for us Floridians that need the rain.

[Rainband]

What makes this one event, potential event that is, El Nino related? How is El Nino responsible for this one low pressure area? Just curious.

I think it has something to do with the low developing from moisture in the Pacific transitioning into the GOM. Pineapple express.

Not so much Pineapple express...that gets its name from a flow that hits the west coast US from Hawaii. Hence pineapple.

But, this is an el nino type event in the sense that the subtropical jet stream originating from the equatorial pacific is going to link up with the approaching front(disturbance) from the NW similar to past el nino winters here in Florida. The GFS has been hinting at these active jet stream driven systems for quite some time now. 06z run coming inline with an active day possibly on Friday. Timing seems to still be uncertain.

Thanks josh

[MiamiensisWx]

Note the shortwave signature of the mid-level trough entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The mid-level dynamics, along with mid-level drier air and synoptic setup, are more conducive for a merging surface low just west of southwest and west-central Florida over the next 56 to 72 hours, not tropical development. Instability is marginal at best, and the synoptics of the surrounding environment and approaching moderate shortwave that may pick up this developing moderate surface low dictate that even the chances for subtropical development are probably low at best. This is evidenced by the disorganized nature of the convective activity surrounding the surface low near the Yucatan Channel currently.

All this and the synoptic factors are evidenced on water vapor, visible, and infra-red loop imagery.

In short, I personally don't expect any tropical - or even subtropical - development out of this system. 2006 is most likely done.

[linkerweather]

It looks like whatever is trying to form down there is starting to shear out and be a non event for us Floridians that need the rain.

Sheared out does not equal no rain. THIS IS NOT TROPICAL. I was responding to a thread that HAPPENED to be in a tropical forum. This is going to be an EL NINO type winter low. Looks potentially promising for S> FL rain needs. Location of heaviest rain still a question, the last 2 GFS runs are farther south then the 5 or 6 in a row since SUnday 18z which favored central Florida. GFS is still depicting the surface (NON TROPICAL) development just exactly where seem to be a question.

[fci]

NWS Miami Discussion talks about the event this evening:

The GFS continues to show a strong short wave now coming ashore in
California today moving across the southern rockies Wednesday and
into south Texas Thursday. It does not cut off but continues to
move steadily into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday night. Several
weaker short waves are forecast to move across the Florida
Peninsula Thursday and Thursday night before the main system
including a surface low pressure system moves through on Friday.
Unlike yesterday, this forecast surface low is very weak until it
crosses the Florida Peninsula into the Atlantic. There still appears
to be enough instability and moisture for a decent rain event across
Mainland South Florida Thursday through Friday which hopefully will
put a Dent in our developing dryness problem. HPC is now forecasting
as much as 2 to 3 inches of rain across the Lake Okeechobee region
before the system is done and this would be a big help. We will
accept this scenario for now. Southern stream systems are sometimes
not resolved well especially if they are far enough south to be over
Mexico and this one appears to be taking a Rio Grande Route. If the
system cuts off then the forecast will be too fast and the event
could delay into the weekend. If the system moves across the
northern Gulf of Mexico then Mainland South Florida probably would
not have nearly as much rain and our dryness will not be improved.
Stay tuned.

[HURRICANELONNY]

IT'S THE GFS. MAY I SAY MORE.

[boca]

The way the pattern has been here in South Florida for months with no rain why would anyone think that this would actually materialize. Theirs too many doubts in the models and no consensus.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the GFS is appears as though pressure are to remain low over the SW Gulf and Southern and Central Florida throughout the 144 hour forecast period begining in about 60 Hours from the Initialization hour. I would say no tropical development is possible as it has initialized it as a cold core system but, we do need the rain so it's no problem for me.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation



CMC Rainfall forecast
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

Nogaps
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr



These models are all pretty consistent about rainfall potential in South and Central Florida throughout the forecast period.

[gatorcane]

The way the pattern has been here in South Florida for months with no rain why would anyone think that this would actually materialize. Theirs too many doubts in the models and no consensus.

If you look at the long wave pattern it looks more like summer over the eastern CONUS with a huge ridge pumping in deep easterlies across much of Florida. A tropical system in the NW Caribbean wouldn't surprise me given how weird the weather patterns have been this month -- much warmer than it should be.

Where was this all of last summer?

[gatorcane]

Latest SAT image showing an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean with DEEP easterlies throughout much if the region -- just like summer.

I'll be watching...

[wxman57]

Just a bogus GFS storm. Nothing out there. At most, may see a weak frontal wave move across Florida.