A disturbing poster today at the AGU fall meeting

[Derek Ortt]

An undergrad class at Texas A&M conducted a research study which sampled the mood of people in Houston, Galveston, and Port Arthur. One thing is beyond comprehension to me, about 80% said they would not evacuate for a category 2 hurricane. That is despite the fact that Rita only brought upper cat 1 winds to Texas, according to all of the observations (the cat 2 winds were in Louisiana), and the fact that NHC stated in its report that Ria was basically a TINO (three in name only... going on the assumption that slightly higher winds that suggested by the data were found).

Please, please, do not take a cat 2 lightly. For evidence of what a cat 2 does, look at Ft Lauderdale from Wilma. If one takes a cat 1 lightly, look at Miami in Wilma. Both cities were devastated. And definately, do not assume that because you went through cat 1 winds, you can go through cat 2 winds. Many in Miami thought that because they went through a moderate TS in Katrina that they could survive a moderate cat 1 in Wilma... WRONG

[caneflyer]

I wonder how many of the people questioned actually are supposed to evacuate for a category 2 hurricane.

As for "surviving" category 1 winds in Miami and category 2 winds in Broward, how many people were actually killed by those winds, i.e., didn't survive? Unless you are in a surge zone, which was not relevant for Wilma, or live in a mobile home or other similar structure, you aren't supposed to evacuate for that kind of wind.

[Stratosphere747]

It's because of Rita that Houston and the surrounding areas could be in trouble if a major were to threaten this area in the near future.

I'm amazed on how little the root of the problem *traffic* has been addressed by not only Perry, but the Mayor of Houston.

The only hope is that many that should have never "evacuated" may in fact stay home and alleviate the congestion. I can tell you that the mandatory evacuation procedures that were in place worked, and will work again, ONLY if those that do not need to leave stay off the road. Otherwise a storm just a day or so faster than Rita.....

[Derek Ortt]

Most directly killed by Wilma in south Florida were killed directly by the wind (same was true in Andrew)

highrises in Miami and Lauderdale are the big problem, making wind the primary threat to life here

The cat 2 wind at 10m, was cat 3 or cat 4 at the top. Things were sucked out of high rises. Any stronger, and there would have been a serious threat to life.

The poster did not say what percentage of those should evacuate for a cat 2 (which is different for both regions, and the size of the cat 2 as a cat 2 at Port Arthur produces about 75% higher surge than a cat 2 in Galveston), but the fact that people view a 3 as some type of magical cutoff for severe damage (when most that experience a "cat 3" experience TS or cat 1 winds) is the troubling statistic

[caneflyer]

Most directly killed by Wilma in south Florida were killed directly by the wind (same was true in Andrew)

There were 5 fatalities in S. Florida due to Wilma. If Miami and Ft. Lauderdale were "devastated", and only 5 people died, I'd say that's pretty good. In fact, these areas were hardly devastated. Andrew in south Dade is devastation. Wilma doesn't come close.

The point is you cannot have millions of people on the roads evacuating category 1 and 2 hurricanes. These people are supposed to stay put.

[Derek Ortt]

Andrew leveled Homestead, like Katrina did Mississippi

However, to say that Wilma did not devastate Lauderdale would be distorting the effects.

I drove through Laduerdale 2 days after, and trust me, the damage was far beyond anything I was rpepared for. The high rise district was devastated, as were many homes (more than 5,000 were uninhabitable... meaning total losses just in Broward) with tens of thousands more damaged.

Another problem is that Port Arthur will flood in a cat 2. It flooded from the left side of a TINO with the winds offshore. What is going to happen when you have a large area of hurricane force winds, with a region of 105-110 mph winds coming onshore? That is the point of this... but the idea that people do not need to evacuate for a cat 2 is of no surprise to me at all

[caneflyer]

Devastate means to destroy or ruin. I saw the damage too, firsthand, and I would not use that word. While individual homes were "devastated" by Wilma, the cities of Ft. Lauderdale and Miami most certainly were not. Overly dramatic language doesn't help people respond appropriately. Let's save that kind of language for the Katrinas and the Andrews.

You said in your original post that it was beyond comprehension to you that 80% of the people surveyed wouldn't evacuate for a category 2 hurricane. Now you're saying that it's no surprise to you that people don't need to evacuate for a category 2? If they don't need to, why would you be so surprised that they don't plan to?

[gatorcane]

Wilma brought CAT1 and some CAT 2 winds to much of metro south Florida -- and for the most part we all survived it.....

I also think many here in metro south Florida have become a bit more complacent and would also not evacuate if a CAT 2 or even CAT 3 hurricane was on the way -- That is because Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, and Wilma were really not that bad -- and many think that it can't get much worse

But it can....

Wilma cannot and should not be used as the benchmark for the modern day South Florida hurricane - I guess it will take a hurricane like Andrew or the 1947 Okeechobie CAT 4 monster to really wake people up here. Not to mention with real estate trending downward and repeat of the upper 1920s is not out of the question if a monster does come through in the next few years.

I think that will happen in this decade.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm saying the attitude that people do not need to leave for a cat 2 doesn't surprise me

Seems like everyone forgets Isabel... a mere cat 2 that put Hatteras under water and those who stayed had to struggle to survive

This is the same attitude that people had before Katrina... they did not leave ebcause it was supposed to "only be a 4" in MS. Some are now dead.

Those that don't think they need to leave a barrier island (which is what Galveston is) or the immediate coast (such as Port Arthur) when a cat 2 comes (which will put Port Arthur under water if they receive close to the worst is has to offer), are going to be in danger. I agree that further inland, such as Beaumont, residents should NOT be evacuating, or Houston, but for those in the mandatory evac zone, need to leave when ordered, and they will be for a cat 2.

We can save the wind arguments in Miami for another time... as that is a whole different argument as we are not exactly in a surge zone

[caneflyer]

I think the real issue here is not whether people would evacuate for a 1 or a 2 or a 3. These numbers are only a small part of what evacuation decisions should be based on, as you know. People should evacuate when they are told to do so by their local officials. A better survey (to get back to the original point of your post) would be to ask people whether they would evacuate if told to do so.

[Derek Ortt]

A better survey (to get back to the original point of your post) would be to ask people whether they would evacuate if told to do so.

Precisely. That question was not asked in the study, though the questions that were seemed to indicate that many would ignore evacuation orders merely because a storm was "just a 2"

[gatorcane]

A better survey (to get back to the original point of your post) would be to ask people whether they would evacuate if told to do so.

Precisely. That question was not asked in the study, though the questions that were seemed to indicate that many would ignore evacuation orders merely because a storm was "just a 2"

It doesn't make sense why people would ignore orders -- is it about whos right and whos wrong? do they just not want to be bothered.......no question I am evacuating if told to do so. Period.

[caneflyer]

A better survey (to get back to the original point of your post) would be to ask people whether they would evacuate if told to do so.

Precisely. That question was not asked in the study, though the questions that were seemed to indicate that many would ignore evacuation orders merely because a storm was "just a 2"

Ah, well, if that's the case, then Houston, we have a problem.

[Lindaloo]

This is the same attitude that people had before Katrina... they did not leave ebcause it was supposed to "only be a 4" in MS. Some are now dead.

People were killed in Mississippi because of Camille. Nobody ever experienced something like Katrina before. I guarantee you that things will change around here if we are threatened again. We do not say "only a CAT4"

[Derek Ortt]

I just don't want a repeat of Katrina, ever. That is why I was so troubled about those findings

[Lindaloo]

You should have interviewed people from Pascagoula.

[Ptarmigan]

Scary stuff. Not surprised by it at all, especially after Rita. I read that if Hurricane Georges had hit near New Orleans, up to 44,000 people could died, despite being a Category 2 hurricane.

[AussieMark]

Floyd was a category 2 hurricane in North Carolina

Floyd killed 56 people and damages of around $6 Billion.


in 1972 Agnes which was a category 1 hurricanes killed 122 people or something


inland flooding can be as much as a problem as the coast itself is in lesser storms

[AussieMark]

Scary stuff. Not surprised by it at all, especially after Rita. I read that if Hurricane Georges had hit near New Orleans, up to 44,000 people could died, despite being a Category 2 hurricane.

Georges had a deadly history

with around 600 dead in the Caribbean that were confirmed

[wxman57]

Derek,

I'm curious as to the breakdown of responses from those 3 areas. Houston is in Harris County, which is one county removed from the Gulf and well above sea level. Most of the people who evacuated Houston for Rita would probably have been fine had they stayed and had Rita hit us as a Cat 2 or 3. No power for weeks, and probably trees poking through roofs, but not wiped out from storm surge. There were people evacuating who were over 100 miles inland and 80-100 ft above sea level for Rita.

Now Galveston and Port Arthur are a different story. Those people should leave for even a moderate TS unless the NHC can 100% guarantee that the moderate TS 3 days from landfall won't be a hurricane when it hits (and they cannot in almost all cases).

Which brings me to a point I've made here over and over. The decision to evacuate or not must be made 60-72 hours prior to landfall. We cannot predict intensity very well, so that TS in the gulf 3 days from landfall could be a Cat 3-4 when it hits. People in vulnerable coastal areas cannot wait to see how strong it'll really be when it hits. They have to leave 2-3 days before it hits, when no one knows the landfall intensity.