Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
Looking at values from the CPC, all those years generally had warmer OHC in December compared to December 2021. The exception was 2009. The reason is due to the current upwelling KW beneath the EPAC holding strong negative anomalies.
Also 2018 had the backing of a warm PDO and warm PMM.
2012 was supposed to be a +ENSO year but a strongly -PDO and -PMM eventually killed off the momentum.
https://i.imgur.com/fY70AP0.png
Also FWIW:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552925317791814/930643597563396096/averageensoni.png
https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1480981936319307777?s=21
Historically odds look okay for a Niño tbh, better than I thought they did. But at bare minimum the -PDO and +AMO and -SPMM should allow for the Niño to be west based if it occurs at all, especially if +PMM emerges.
Isn’t the AMO currently negative? After all, the subtropical North Atlantic is still warmer than the MDR.