BoM (1/10/07) ENSO update= El Nino Weakening

[cycloneye]

Summary: El Niño showing signs of weakening

All the main ENSO indicators show that the El Niño event has begun to weaken. This bodes well for a switch towards wetter conditions across Australia sometime in the late summer or autumn. The timing of the weakening also fits in well with that observed during previous events, although it is still possible for there to be renewed strengthening of the El Niño event for a month or two before it finally dissipates.

Since late November, near equatorial sea-surface temperatures have cooled by about 0.1 to 0.4°C, cooler-than-normal sub-surface water has extended well into the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with significant weakening of warm anomalies occurring as a result, and the Trade Winds have been stronger than normal across the western and central Pacific. Furthermore, monthly SOI values were neutral for both November and December and central Pacific cloudiness has been near to or slightly below average for almost a month.

However, a moderate to strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), with an associated westerly wind burst, is currently affecting the area between northern Australia and Indonesia. If the MJO maintains its intensity as it propagates into the western Pacific, a fall in the SOI, a decrease in the Trade Wind strength and an increase in cloudiness may occur as a result. This may cause temporary strengthening of the El Niño event, but given the recent trends and the predictions from computer models, neutral ENSO conditions are expected to return during the southern autumn.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

Interesting what the Australians are saying in this latest update at 1/10/07.Let's see in the comming weeks and months how it all evolves in terms of the ENSO conditions as the 2007 Hurricane Season gets closer.As they say at the update Neutral ENSO will arrive by spring in the Northern Hemisphere and by Autumm in the Southern Hemisphere.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes it does appear as though El Nino is waning...

[P.K.]

All Nino regions fell again this week including Nino 3.4 dropping from +0.83C to +0.57C. That is the biggest drop in a single week since the anomalies peaked the week ending 10/12/2006.

[Coredesat]

Wow. Based on those subsurface anomalies, there's quite a cold pocket developing. The El Nino seems to be weakening pretty quickly.