Australia: TC Jacob: Landfall has occurred

[HURAKAN]

Looking better organized.

[Chacor]

No mention in the Perth outlook from 0400Z 02 Mar.

[HURAKAN]

No mention in the Perth outlook.

I noticed that. I was going to post it in case it was available. There is nothing still either from the JTWC.

[HURAKAN]

Another tropical low 1002hPa lies near 14.5S 118.0E and whilst being monitored
for development, is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next
3 days.
Development potential of low near 15.5S 118.0E:
Sunday: LOW
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: LOW

There are no other significant tropical lows expected to affect the outlook area
in the next three days.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[HURAKAN]

03/0833 UTC 14.0S 117.8E T1.5/1.5 94S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

03/1433 UTC 14.5S 116.0E T1.5/1.5 94S -- South Indian Ocean

No change in estimate.

[HURAKAN]

New convection covers the low level circulation.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0434UTC 5 MARCH 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0300 UTC Tropical Low located within 20 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal five south [14.5S]
longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal six east [114.6E]
Recent movement : west at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots reaching 40 knots in western quadrants
Central pressure: 998 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 45 nautical miles extending to within 90 nautical miles of centre.

FORECAST
Winds clockwise around low 25/33 knots reaching 30/40 knots in western
quadrants. Very rough seas, moderate swell.

Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/45 knots in all quadrants. Rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

At 1500 UTC 05 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.5 south 113.1 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots reaching 40 knots in western
quadrants.
At 0300 UTC 06 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 14.5 south 111.8 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots reaching 40 knots in western
quadrants.

Next warning issued by 0800 UTC 05 March 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Once again trying to become better organized.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to organize.

[P.K.]

Isobel II, sorry I mean Jacob.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0105UTC 7 MARCH 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Jacob located within 40 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal eight south [12.8S]
longitude one hundred and eight decimal three east [108.3E]
Recent movement : west northwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 988 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 40 nautical miles of centre extending to 80 nautical miles in western
quadrants.


FORECAST
Winds clockwise around low 30/45 knots in western quadrants. Very rough seas,
moderate swell.

At 1200 UTC 07 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 12.3 south 107.2 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.
At 0000 UTC 08 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 11.8 south 106.2 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.

Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 07 March 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

________________________________________________

Weird movement, northwestward!!!

[Coredesat]

Indonesia doesn't start warning on tropical cyclones in its waters until next year, right?

[HURAKAN]

[web]http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.gif?1173231167558[/web]

Christmas Islands under cyclone watch.

[HURAKAN]

This will be interesting to see!!!

[HurricaneBill]

What an odd track. Kinda like the 1935 Yankee Hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0755UTC 7 MARCH 2007

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Jacob [corrected] located within 30 nautical miles
of
latitude twelve decimal five south [12.5S]
longitude one hundred and seven decimal five east [107.5E]
Recent movement : west northwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 976 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of centre :
winds above 34 knots with rough seas and moderate swell.

Within 30 nautical miles of centre :
winds above 48 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 50 knots near the centre.

Within 30 nautical miles of centre :
winds above 48 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Within 80 nautical miles of centre:
winds above 34 knots with rough seas and moderate swell.

At 1800 UTC 07 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 12.1 south 106.5 east
Central pressure 975 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots.
At 0600 UTC 08 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 11.3 south 106.1 east
Central pressure 975 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots.

Next warning issued by 1400 UTC 07 March 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/070152MAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.2S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.9S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.5S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 11.1S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 107.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (JACOB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH-
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE EXTENSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS, STRONG LOW
TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL EXERT
A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND BEGIN
TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW EXERTS MORE OF A STEERING INFLUENCE AND AS THE
SYSTEM INTERACTS WEAKLY WITH TC 17S. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THIS IS EXPECTED DECREASE ONLY
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOW TC 18S TO INTEN-
SIFY AT NEARLY A CLIMATALOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, UPWELLING
WILL CAUSE A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AND THE MODEL FIELDS ARE
HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (GEORGE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:05 pm WDT on Wednesday, 7 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 cyclone is current for Christmas Island.
At 7:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Jacob was estimated to be
305 kilometres southeast of Christmas Island and
and moving west northwest at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Jacob has developed to the southeast of Christmas Island, and
has intensified slightly today.

If the system continues to move towards the northwest then gales with gusts to
120 kilometres an hour may develop over the island on Thursday afternoon or
evening. Thunderstorms with heavy rain are likely to develop overnight and
continue during Thursday which may result in localised flooding.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Jacob at 7:00 pm WDT.

Location of centre : within 55 kilometres of
latitude 12.5 south longitude 107.6 east
Recent movement : west northwest at 8 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 976 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 2

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm WDT Wednesday 07 March.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1437UTC 7 MARCH 2007

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1300 UTC Tropical Cyclone Jacob located within 25 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal nine south [12.9S]
longitude one hundred and seven decimal three east [107.3E]
Recent movement : southwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 976 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of centre extending to 120 nautical miles in the
northwestern quadrant.


FORECAST
Sustained winds to 50 knots near the centre.

Within 20 nautical miles of centre :
winds above 48 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Within 80 nautical miles of centre extending to 120 nautical miles in the
northwestern quadrant:
winds above 34 knots with rough seas and moderate swell.

At 0100 UTC 08 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 13.0 south 107.1 east
Central pressure 976 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots.
At 1300 UTC 08 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 13.0 south 106.9 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 07 March 2007.

WEATHER PERTH