Loop current!

[hurricanetrack]

Look at how far north the Loop Current reaches as of late!

https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif

Wow! It is aiming right for the central Gulf Coast. Not sure why this is the case, but geez, that cannot be good if it were to persist through the season. Any thoughts?

[MississippiHurricane]

Yea thats a big area of water. I think if it gets warmer then we will have a bad situation on our hands if we get a storm in this area. This needs to be monitored over the next month or so and see if it shrinks or whatnot.

[windycity]

The loop current and the surrounding eddys usually have sst's in this range. I remember seeing the same thing last year,and even made a point of doing my own research on the eddy vortex.It seemed to extent further north,but i realized it constantly changes.Now if the other factors come into play,thats another story.Sst's are only a part. :

[MiamiensisWx]

I personally don't see the point for this topic. 26 or 27 degrees Celsius SSTs reaching the northern Gulf coast in March for brief periods is hardly unusual even in non-2005 years.

This topic seems to reappear each year. I think the general sense of nervousness due to "warm" Gulf waters is rather redundant. I think we need to be more rational. I have seen far warmer SSTs in March (and even January) in the Gulf of Mexico that extended further north to Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle. The graphic posted is also NOT a heat content graphic. It merely depicts the variable SSTs (in CELSIUS) which regularly reach the upper 70s and low 80s as early as February along the northern Gulf coast for brief periods. SSTs are not the only factor and rarely matter over the longer term in the western Atlantic Basin when the heart of each season arrives. Heat content is far more critical to TC development. I personally believe people are too nervous and want to compare everything to 2005; thus, people are prematurely calling "panic" or "we may be safe" due to slight cooling and warming trends in the Gulf Loop Current and Atlantic Basin.

[Opal storm]

I personally don't see the point for this topic. 26 or 27 degrees Celsius SSTs reaching the northern Gulf coast in March for brief periods is hardly unusual even in non-2005 years.

This topic seems to reappear each year. I think the general sense of nervousness due to "warm" Gulf waters is rather redundant. I think we need to be more rational. I have seen far warmer SSTs in March (and even January) in the Gulf of Mexico that extended further north to Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle. The graphic posted is also NOT a heat content graphic. It merely depicts the variable SSTs (in CELSIUS) which regularly reach the upper 70s and low 80s as early as February along the northern Gulf coast for brief periods. SSTs are not the only factor and rarely matter over the longer term in the western Atlantic Basin when the heart of each season arrives. Heat content is far more critical to TC development. I personally believe people are too nervous and want to compare everything to 2005; thus, people are prematurely calling "panic" or "we may be safe" due to slight cooling and warming trends in the Gulf Loop Current and Atlantic Basin.

Bingo!Ding Ding Ding! You are the winner!

[hurricanetrack]

The point of the topic is to discuss the Loop Current and how far north it is reaching now. It is of interest since it is a renewable source of heat content. It was also a key buzz word from the 2005 season and there it is- sticking its neck more and more north in to the Gulf. I never said anything about panic or the like. If people want to panic, go right ahead. I for one will watch the Loop Current closely to see where it is come August or September. I was also hoping to learn more about why it is extending so far north when it was basically not there at all in 2004. That is the point of this topic, at least my point.

[James]

Still, it's interesting how much it stands out at the moment. Whether that kind of anomaly continues is another matter but it's interesting to observe it's continual fluctuations.

[MGC]

Come August the loop current will be a red carpet to Louisiana. How many hurricanes have bombed over the loop current? Camille, Opal, Lili, Katrina, Rita just to name a few.....MGC

[MiamiensisWx]

The point of the topic is to discuss the Loop Current and how far north it is reaching now. It is of interest since it is a renewable source of heat content. It was also a key buzz word from the 2005 season and there it is- sticking its neck more and more north in to the Gulf. I never said anything about panic or the like. If people want to panic, go right ahead. I for one will watch the Loop Current closely to see where it is come August or September. I was also hoping to learn more about why it is extending so far north when it was basically not there at all in 2004. That is the point of this topic, at least my point.

Your point is certainly valid. My post was not directed solely at you and I apologize if I misunderstood your intent. My main point was the graphic you posted indicated the SSTs and NOT the important heat content beneath the surface (which you mentioned). In addition, the SSTs vary greatly, and the "tongue" you mentioned is not very unusual for this time of the year. 27 degrees Celsius reaching the northern Gulf in February or March for brief periods is actually rather frequent between periods of upwelling by frontal and surface, mid-level, and upper-level low and trough passages. Here is the crux of the issue. Every year a general topic arises about the warmth in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and MDR region and involves the current SSTs within the Loop Current, Caribbean, and Gulf Stream. I have noticed that some people get too fixated on SSTs and jump from "we're doomed" to "good news" with nearly every fluctuation of SST anomalies at the surface during March, April, May, June, and other months before the season even reaches it's peak. SSTs are not the only factor and I want those people to realize that heat content beneath the surface is the most critical element to TC development.

In addition, getting too concentrated on SST trends and small fluctuations in anomalies long before the season even starts (let alone reaches it's peak) has it's risks. I get concerned when people (not referring to you) start focusing solely on SSTs and point out, "Look how warm the Gulf/Atlantic/MDR/Bahamas is right now!" before the season even peaks. When the SSTs cool even a fraction, these people tend to state, "Good news! The Loop Current/Atlantic/Gulf/MDR SSTs are cooler! This may inhibit development if this trend continues." This tends to lead to complacency when some people read these posts and begin to think they're safe when nothing can be further from the truth. In addition, these posts also lead to misunderstanding of the dynamics of the Atlantic Basin. I mean no disrespect when I state this fact; I merely wanted to make an observation and a point. I hope my point wasn't misunderstood.

In short there are an immense amount of variables at play and I don't want people to be lulled into a false sense of security due to emphasis being placed on small fluctuations in SSTs in the Atlantic Basin or Gulf of Mexico or MDR. This happens when people start to compare current SSTs to 2005 and state, "Bad news!" before the season even reaches September or October and then tone it down if SSTs cool at the surface and say, "Good news! Storms may not be as strong if SSTs cool a bit. It looks like this may be good since storms may not be as intense as 2005." This can be very dangerous. Also, even Category One storms can be quite destructive and tropical storm-force winds can be nothing to sneeze at or dismiss.

[hurricanetrack]

All excellent points- hopefully we can get some hurricanes without any major problems. A win-win for us hurricane trackers but without the death and overwhelming destruction to go with it. No one needs that.

And your point about cat-1 winds, etc. is right on. During hurricane Alex, which went from a 1 to a 2 in a matter of hours, the winds were quite strong and pushed a sizeable storm surge across Hatteras Village- the biggest since Emily in 1993. Even Isabel was not as bad in some areas as Alex was.

I am still wondering though why the Loop Current is as prominent as it is right now. There is a reason- anyone venture to guess what that might be?

[MississippiHurricane]

All excellent points- hopefully we can get some hurricanes without any major problems. A win-win for us hurricane trackers but without the death and overwhelming destruction to go with it. No one needs that.

And your point about cat-1 winds, etc. is right on. During hurricane Alex, which went from a 1 to a 2 in a matter of hours, the winds were quite strong and pushed a sizeable storm surge across Hatteras Village- the biggest since Emily in 1993. Even Isabel was not as bad in some areas as Alex was.

I am still wondering though why the Loop Current is as prominent as it is right now. There is a reason- anyone venture to guess what that might be?

Im guessing with el nino fading, the transition from the cooler to warmer temps affects the way currents flow and possible change the direction of the winds because of the planet trying to equalize itself(osmosis)??