What was the strongest Tropical Cyclone Ever???

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Ptarmigan
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What was the strongest Tropical Cyclone Ever???

#1 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Mar 19, 2007 3:51 pm

Some say Super Typhoon Tip was the strongest tropical cyclone ever. However, some think Super Typhoon Gay, Angela, and Yuri were stronger. Some say Tropical Cyclone Monica was stronger with 869 mb based in Dvorak Technique. The blog author analyzes Hurricane Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. He thinks all of them had lower pressure than what is see in the NHC official report.

What was the strongest Tropical Cyclone Ever???
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#2 Postby P.K. » Mon Mar 19, 2007 4:14 pm

I doubt Severe Tropical Cyclone got down to 868hPa given the operational min centre pressure of 905hPa. The lowest in the basin was 900hPa in STCs Gwenda and Inigo.
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#3 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Mar 19, 2007 11:08 pm

The only storms that can imo fit the bill are Monica and Wlima
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#4 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Mar 19, 2007 11:29 pm

I'd say Super Typhoon Tip is the strongest we've observed.
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#5 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 20, 2007 5:54 am

You're right that Tip was the strongest TC that has been observed (measured) by recon. But there is strong evidence that other typhoons were more intense than Tip (lower pressure/stronger wind). I saw a presentation at the 26th Conference on Tropial Meteorology in Miami in 2004. Here's the presentation:

http://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techpr ... _75465.htm

You can watch the recording of the PowerPoint if you download the player.
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#6 Postby Aslkahuna » Wed Mar 21, 2007 12:14 am

Yes, there have been storms that could have been stronger, but without in-situ data that's just speculation.

Steve
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#7 Postby vmax135 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 4:05 pm

I agree with wxman57, even without empirical recon observations, there is strong evidence to suggest that several TCs have been stronger than STY Tip... even outside the West Pacific basin. My personal vote is for TC Monica... just before it moved over Wessel Island, Monica was UNBELIEVABLE!!!

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#8 Postby AussieMark » Wed Mar 21, 2007 4:44 pm

Typhoon Paka in December 1997 was another typhoon that was incredibly intense
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#9 Postby vmax135 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 5:27 pm

Here's a screenshot from the day the GFDL went crazy with Ioke, forecasting a minimum pressure of 860.1mb and 190kt winds!!! :eek: hahaha :P

Image

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Scorpion

#10 Postby Scorpion » Wed Mar 21, 2007 5:38 pm

I believe the GFDL went even lower, deep into the 850's
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#11 Postby vmax135 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 5:47 pm

Scorpion wrote:I believe the GFDL went even lower, deep into the 850's


Yeah...I think you're right! This was the only run that I got a screenshot from, but I remember it going lower too. I also love that the category five windfield takes up two degrees of latitude!!! :D

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#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Mar 21, 2007 8:42 pm

dont think Monica would quite qualify as from what I recall, it appeared to be a T 7.0/7.0 to a 7.5/7.5

That said, without recon, Wilma would have had max winds of 110-115KT (officially) as the sat estimates ranged from 5.5/5.5 to 6.5/6.5 when recon measured 882mb due to the eye being smaller than a single GOES pixel (4km resolution). Shows the value of recon
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#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 9:31 pm

I think, if they dropped a Recon into Monica, it would come out at 866mb.
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#14 Postby Category 5 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 9:58 pm

Once again, this proves just how great recon is.

Gotta have that recon baby! :lol:
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#15 Postby vmax135 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 10:01 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:dont think Monica would quite qualify as from what I recall, it appeared to be a T 7.0/7.0 to a 7.5/7.5

That said, without recon, Wilma would have had max winds of 110-115KT (officially) as the sat estimates ranged from 5.5/5.5 to 6.5/6.5 when recon measured 882mb due to the eye being smaller than a single GOES pixel (4km resolution). Shows the value of recon


Hi Derek - I remember UW-CIMSS giving Monica an adjusted T# of 8.0 for several hours around 00Z on the 24th... and I also remember the NRL's satellite derived pressure being under 880mb for a time. I think a previous post had a link that noted, the NRL also classified Monica as a T8.0, but that the normal equivalent central pressure (around 858mb) was adjusted because of the storm's latitude. Either way, given Monica's satellite presentation, I wouldn't doubt if the lowest adjusted pressure estimate (869mb), across the agencies, was conservative.

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#16 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Mar 21, 2007 10:14 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:dont think Monica would quite qualify as from what I recall, it appeared to be a T 7.0/7.0 to a 7.5/7.5

That said, without recon, Wilma would have had max winds of 110-115KT (officially) as the sat estimates ranged from 5.5/5.5 to 6.5/6.5 when recon measured 882mb due to the eye being smaller than a single GOES pixel (4km resolution). Shows the value of recon


We do need to do more recon. We get better measures. Hopefully, using UAVs will be used. Hurricane Wilma shows that the Dvorak Technique is not 100% accurate. It would not surprise me that we could get much stronger typhoons than Tip in the Pacific and possibly with TC Monica.
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Wed Mar 21, 2007 10:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#17 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Mar 21, 2007 10:14 pm

vmax135 wrote:Here's a screenshot from the day the GFDL went crazy with Ioke, forecasting a minimum pressure of 860.1mb and 190kt winds!!! :eek: hahaha :P

Image

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All I can say is YIKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Think about that one in the Gulf of Mexico.
:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#18 Postby vmax135 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 10:25 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:dont think Monica would quite qualify as from what I recall, it appeared to be a T 7.0/7.0 to a 7.5/7.5

That said, without recon, Wilma would have had max winds of 110-115KT (officially) as the sat estimates ranged from 5.5/5.5 to 6.5/6.5 when recon measured 882mb due to the eye being smaller than a single GOES pixel (4km resolution). Shows the value of recon


We do need to do more recon. We get better measures. Hopefully, using UAVs will be used. Hurricane Wilma shows that the Dvorak Technique is not 100% accurate.


I agree 100%... we need recon all the time. I can't begin to think how many valuable measurements have been lost because of lack of funding for recon. I agree with both you and Derek, DVORAK classification can be seriously flawed at times, that said, it seems that when it is flawed, it's usually on the conservative side. A similar mis-classification occurred with Hugo in 1989, during the infamous first eyewall penetration of the NOAA P3, where satellite agencies were only giving Hugo 110kts, and the plane found 140kts and 918mb! :eek:

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#19 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Mar 21, 2007 10:54 pm

vmax135 wrote:I agree 100%... we need recon all the time. I can't begin to think how many valuable measurements have been lost because of lack of funding for recon. I agree with both you and Derek, DVORAK classification can be seriously flawed at times, that said, it seems that when it is flawed, it's usually on the conservative side. A similar mis-classification occurred with Hugo in 1989, during the infamous first eyewall penetration of the NOAA P3, where satellite agencies were only giving Hugo 110kts, and the plane found 140kts and 918mb! :eek:

-=Michael=-
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Using the Dvorak Technique, Hurricane Katrina would be T7.5, which is 180 mph winds and 906 mb, but had 175 mph and 902 mb and possibly even lower, probably low as 898 mb. I have seen hurricanes with 902 mb and higher wind speeds, as high as 185 mph. The use of Dvorak Technique on Hugo could of proved tragic for the Hurricane Hunters.
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#20 Postby vmax135 » Thu Mar 22, 2007 12:13 am

Ptarmigan wrote:...The use of Dvorak Technique on Hugo could of proved tragic for the Hurricane Hunters.


It nearly did... they almost lost the plane! During the initial penetration they recorded a gust of 196mph and encountered a colossal updraft that alternately produced +5.6G's and -3.9G's of strain on the aircraft... the P3 is only rated to withstand +3G's and -2G's, respectively. They're lucky the wings didn't snap off. To make matters worse, because they believed the satellite estimates of lower intensity, they went in at only 1,500 feet!! :eek: which is too low, even for a strong category three, if you ask me. Both the number three and four engines were damaged, number three actually caught on fire and they had to shut it down completely. Here's a close-up airborne radar image of Hugo showing the plane's flight path, appended with the wind values they recorded. You can see the erratic circling the pilot made after the plane was damaged...

Image

Eventually, they wound up dumping fuel and throwing gear out of the dropsonde tube to lighten the plane's weight and gain altitude. After a harrowing encounter, they were able to climb higher and make it out of Hugo safely... but I know several of the people on that flight vowed they would never fly into a hurricane again. Jeff Masters was one of them and he posted an excellent account of this flight, complete with terrifying pictures, on his Wunderground blog... here's a link:

Hunting Hugo: The Hurricane Hunters' Wildest Ride

-=Michael=-
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Last edited by vmax135 on Thu Mar 22, 2007 11:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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