GFS shows development by the 25th
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- hurricanetrack
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GFS shows development by the 25th
It is at it again. The 18Z GFS shows a heck of a tropical cyclone (for March) developing around the 25th. Remember I posted something about this several days ago- that the GFS was trying to spin something up between PR and Bermuda. Well, this time it looks like a fairly classic hurricane season type storm. Will it happen? Who knows? But it certainly has my attention as something to watch. Boy, won't that get the global warming folks all fired up to have a named storm form in late March!
BTW- the water temps in that region can certainly fuel such a storm as it appears that water temps are close to 79-80 degrees. We'll see what happens- at least this time we're not talking some 10 days down the road- any thoughts from others out there?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
BTW- the water temps in that region can certainly fuel such a storm as it appears that water temps are close to 79-80 degrees. We'll see what happens- at least this time we're not talking some 10 days down the road- any thoughts from others out there?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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wow.. looks interesting for sure... lets remember it was 2003 that we saw ana in late april... it would be a month earlier but hey who knows... probably more hybrid...
Jesse V. Bass III
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Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Does anyone have any shear maps? Shear has been very high obviously, but I want to know whether or not it's decreasing.
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That be an interesting start to the 2007 season should something tropical form this early.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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12z GFS Loop
The 12z GFS still has the low forming,but moves rapidly northeast.What I see there is maybe a hybrid type low.
The 12z GFS still has the low forming,but moves rapidly northeast.What I see there is maybe a hybrid type low.
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- hurricanetrack
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Lottery
I'll take that bet. In terms of Powerball, you have a 1 in 146,000,000 chance of winning. I would say that based on what most models are showing in the next few days, that the odds of a March named storm this year are quite a bit better than those of winning the lottery. Of course, it depends on which lottery you refer to. But if we use Powerball, it's 1 in 146,000,000 roughly. I would personally give this system a 1 in 500 chance of happening- that is- getting named by the NHC. I am biased though, as I think it would be kind of cool to see very early season development. Anyhow, that's my take- I think in this case the odds greatly favor a named storm in March over picking winning lottery numbers.
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- cycloneye
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18z GFS
The 18z GFS shows the same low forming and moving rapidly NE.Interesting that this 18z run has a low forming just South of Hispanola,then moving thru the Mona Passage.But that is waaaaaaaaaay too ahead in time,(in the first week of April).
The 18z GFS shows the same low forming and moving rapidly NE.Interesting that this 18z run has a low forming just South of Hispanola,then moving thru the Mona Passage.But that is waaaaaaaaaay too ahead in time,(in the first week of April).
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The GFS cyclone phase model is developing it as an asymmetric warm-core system - essentially a trough. I wouldn't expect development unless something changes.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html
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- SouthFloridawx
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It's definitely an area of low pressure, but the westerlies seem a bit strong for any type of tropical development. The below windshear map shows just how deep the westerlies are into the Tropical Atlantic.
[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_120m.gif[/web]
[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_300_120m.gif[/web]
[web]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html[/web]
[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_120m.gif[/web]
[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_300_120m.gif[/web]
[web]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html[/web]
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- hurricanetrack
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GFS
Looks like the earlier runs of the GFS were certainly over-doing it. This is not the last time we'll see this in 2007 but still, it is interesting to see. We have a few more days before this would have come and gone, so perhaps it will get going as advertised by the GFS recently. At least it won't affect any land areas, no matter what develops there.
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