GFS shows development by the 25th

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GFS shows development by the 25th

#1 Postby hurricanetrack » Tue Mar 20, 2007 9:24 pm

It is at it again. The 18Z GFS shows a heck of a tropical cyclone (for March) developing around the 25th. Remember I posted something about this several days ago- that the GFS was trying to spin something up between PR and Bermuda. Well, this time it looks like a fairly classic hurricane season type storm. Will it happen? Who knows? But it certainly has my attention as something to watch. Boy, won't that get the global warming folks all fired up to have a named storm form in late March!

BTW- the water temps in that region can certainly fuel such a storm as it appears that water temps are close to 79-80 degrees. We'll see what happens- at least this time we're not talking some 10 days down the road- any thoughts from others out there?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#2 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Mar 20, 2007 9:26 pm

Wow, I could actually have a storm for my birthday! :)

Eh, probably not.
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#3 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Mar 20, 2007 9:28 pm

I saw that earlier tonight. I personally think it can happen, but come on its March! I would suspect that that storm be at the end of a cold front.
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#4 Postby Scorpion » Tue Mar 20, 2007 9:29 pm

I saw that in another thread but was certain that it wasn't a tropical entity shown. It would be interesting if we got any hybrid development this early.
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#5 Postby boca » Tue Mar 20, 2007 9:31 pm

I believe that we had tropical storms develop out of the normal hurricane season like Jan Feb and April not sure about March.
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#6 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Mar 21, 2007 12:38 am

It seems as though some of the othe models are picking up on the same feature, but keep it cold core
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#7 Postby vacanechaser » Wed Mar 21, 2007 5:08 am

wow.. looks interesting for sure... lets remember it was 2003 that we saw ana in late april... it would be a month earlier but hey who knows... probably more hybrid...



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#8 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 7:55 am

Does anyone have any shear maps? Shear has been very high obviously, but I want to know whether or not it's decreasing.
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#9 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Mar 21, 2007 9:29 am

That be an interesting start to the 2007 season should something tropical form this early.
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#10 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 9:38 am

There have been March storms in past years.

Interesting note of all the Spring months April is the harshest for TC formation; I now a couple subtropical entities have developed in said month, but I believe no purely tropical ones have.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 21, 2007 9:42 am

Image

Even the NHC is forecasting the development of a low pressure system in 72 hours. As you can see there's a ridge to the north of the system so northward movement won't occur for some time.
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#12 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 9:48 am

Yup that Ridge is gonna give us a great weekend up 'round these parts. Interesting indeed.
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#13 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Mar 21, 2007 9:58 am

I think I'll stick with picking the winning lottery numbers before I
put any money on the likelihood of something forming in tropics
in March. :D
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 21, 2007 4:33 pm

12z GFS Loop

The 12z GFS still has the low forming,but moves rapidly northeast.What I see there is maybe a hybrid type low.
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Lottery

#15 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Mar 21, 2007 4:41 pm

I'll take that bet. In terms of Powerball, you have a 1 in 146,000,000 chance of winning. I would say that based on what most models are showing in the next few days, that the odds of a March named storm this year are quite a bit better than those of winning the lottery. Of course, it depends on which lottery you refer to. But if we use Powerball, it's 1 in 146,000,000 roughly. I would personally give this system a 1 in 500 chance of happening- that is- getting named by the NHC. I am biased though, as I think it would be kind of cool to see very early season development. Anyhow, that's my take- I think in this case the odds greatly favor a named storm in March over picking winning lottery numbers.
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#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 21, 2007 6:10 pm

I wonder if they are going to declare this 90L.Invest?
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 21, 2007 6:18 pm

18z GFS

The 18z GFS shows the same low forming and moving rapidly NE.Interesting that this 18z run has a low forming just South of Hispanola,then moving thru the Mona Passage.But that is waaaaaaaaaay too ahead in time,(in the first week of April).
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#18 Postby Coredesat » Wed Mar 21, 2007 8:09 pm

The GFS cyclone phase model is developing it as an asymmetric warm-core system - essentially a trough. I wouldn't expect development unless something changes.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html
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#19 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Mar 21, 2007 10:26 pm

It's definitely an area of low pressure, but the westerlies seem a bit strong for any type of tropical development. The below windshear map shows just how deep the westerlies are into the Tropical Atlantic.

[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_120m.gif[/web]

[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_300_120m.gif[/web]

[web]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html[/web]
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GFS

#20 Postby hurricanetrack » Thu Mar 22, 2007 7:36 am

Looks like the earlier runs of the GFS were certainly over-doing it. This is not the last time we'll see this in 2007 but still, it is interesting to see. We have a few more days before this would have come and gone, so perhaps it will get going as advertised by the GFS recently. At least it won't affect any land areas, no matter what develops there.
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